The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-INF · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
基础设施脆弱性指数
Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
Page GRX-IDX-INFEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragilityValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
不确定性
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
结构
5 components
24 leaf indicators
覆盖范围
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 30%
24
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
10
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Shows how likely infrastructure is to fail or isolate people under stress, and how much it already has; sub-indices stay visible beside the total.
computation
How Infrastructure fragility is computedGraph32 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
- 距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the rural population living within two kilometres (about a 20-minute walk) of a road passable in all seasons, estimated from gridded population and road-network condition data.
- 物流绩效Indicator · IND · scoreOverall score of trade logistics performance (customs, infrastructure, shipments, logistics competence, tracking, timeliness) on a 1–5 scale, as an external source series.
- 班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）Indicator · IND · %Liner shipping connectivity of the economy’s ports (ship deployment, container capacity, services, companies, direct connections) as a percentage of the highest-scoring economy in the same year.
- 人均航空客运量Indicator · IND · passengers/a/personPassengers carried on domestic and international flights by carriers registered in the economy, per resident per year.
- 可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the urban population living within 500 m walking distance of a low-capacity public transport stop or 1 km of a high-capacity one.
- 互联网使用者Indicator · IND · %Share of individuals who used the Internet from any location and device in the last three months.
- 移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分Indicator · IND · %Share of the population within range of a mobile-cellular signal, reported separately for 2G, 3G, 4G/LTE and 5G; the headline value is 4G or better.
- 每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数Indicator · IND · /10*2Fixed subscriptions to the public Internet at advertised download speeds of at least 256 kbit/s, per 100 inhabitants, by speed tier.
- 国际连接路由冗余度Indicator · IND · 1Number of physically diverse international connectivity routes (distinct subsea-cable landing stations and cross-border terrestrial fibre routes) serving the economy, capped at ten.
- 电网韧性Indicator · IND · scoreTarget-defined score (0–1) combining transmission N-1 compliance, share of demand restorable within 24 hours after a major event, black-start capability and hardening of critical substations against flood, wind, heat and geomagnetic stress.
- 供水网络韧性Indicator · IND · scoreTarget-defined score (0–1) combining non-revenue water, storage in days of average demand, source redundancy, back-up power at treatment and pumping sites, and planned restoration time after a major event.
- 具备 72 小时备用电源的关键设施Indicator · IND · %Share of hospitals, emergency operations centres, water and wastewater plants and telecom core sites with on-site back-up power and fuel for at least 72 hours of operation.
- 基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Difference between the estimated annual investment needed to meet infrastructure service and resilience needs (energy, transport, water, telecom) and current-trend investment, as a percentage of GDP.
- 企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数Indicator · IND · /moAverage number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
- 停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重Indicator · IND · %Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
- 系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）Indicator · IND · h/aTotal minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- 系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）Indicator · IND · /aNumber of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- 输配电损耗Indicator · IND · %Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
- 因灾害受损或被毁的关键基础设施单位Indicator · IND · 1Number of critical infrastructure units and facilities (health, education, transport, utilities, other) damaged or destroyed by hazardous events in the year.
- 因灾害受损或被毁的卫生设施Indicator · IND · 1Number of health facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events in the year.
- 因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施Indicator · IND · 1Number of educational facilities damaged or destroyed by hazardous events in the year.
- 灾害导致的基本服务中断Indicator · IND · 1Number of disruption events to basic services (education, health, and other basic services such as water, power, transport, telecom and waste) caused by hazardous events in the year.
- 关键基础设施直接经济损失，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Direct economic loss from damage to or destruction of critical infrastructure by hazardous events in the year, as a percentage of GDP.
- 全国范围互联网中断小时数Indicator · IND · h/aTotal hours in the year during which measured national internet connectivity fell below half of its expected level, whether from shutdowns, cable cuts, power loss or attack.
- Transport connectivity deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of the lack of rural all-season road access, weak logistics performance, low liner shipping connectivity, low air connectivity and limited urban public transport, each inverted.
- Digital connectivity deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of the lack of internet use, mobile coverage, fixed broadband and international route redundancy, each inverted.
- Utility system fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of the lack of power-grid and water-network resilience and of back-up power at critical facilities, together with the infrastructure investment gap.
- Electricity supply unreliability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
- Infrastructure disruption impact sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 11.1%Composite of disaster damage to critical infrastructure, health and education facilities, basic-service disruptions, economic loss to infrastructure and internet disruption hours, normalised over a ten-year rolling window.
- 基础设施脆弱性指数Domain index · IDX · geometricIndex of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
- 人类与系统脆弱性Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate infrastructure fragility on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03方法
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 30% of weight
- Weighting
- 专家
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不确定性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; Sendai Framework target D; UNDRR Principles for Resilient Infrastructure (2022)
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components
5 components, 24 indicators
Transport connectivity deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of rural all-season road access, weak logistics performance, low liner shipping connectivity, low air connectivity and limited urban public transport, each inverted.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口IND.INF.transport.rural_road_access | % | Class C | wb-rural-access-index, openstreetmap, worldpop | 33.3% |
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | {score} | Class E | wb-lpi | 22.2% |
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | % | Class B | unctad-lsci, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
人均航空客运量IND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc | {passengers}/a/{person} | Class B | icao-air-transport-reporting, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | % | Class C | un-habitat-urban-indicators-database, gtfs-feeds, openstreetmap | 11.1% |
Digital connectivity deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of internet use, mobile coverage, fixed broadband and international route redundancy, each inverted.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users | % | Class B | itu-datahub, wb-wdi, national-ict-household-surveys | 33.3% |
移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分IND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage | % | Class B | itu-datahub, gsma-mobile-coverage-maps | 33.3% |
每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数IND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband | /10*2 | Class B | itu-datahub, wb-wdi, oecd-broadband-portal | 16.7% |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | 1 | Class D | telegeography-submarine-cable-map, itu-broadband-maps, peeringdb | 16.7% |
Utility system fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of power-grid and water-network resilience and of back-up power at critical facilities, together with the infrastructure investment gap.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
电网韧性IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | {score} | Class D | national-energy-regulators, transmission-system-operator-reports, entso-e-transparency | 25.0% |
供水网络韧性IND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience | {score} | Class E | ibnet-water-utility-database, national-water-regulators, municipal-utility-reports | 25.0% |
具备 72 小时备用电源的关键设施IND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power | % | Class E | who-health-facility-assessments, national-civil-protection-inspections | 25.0% |
基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | % | Class C | gi-hub-infrastructure-outlook, wb-ppi-database, imf-investment-and-capital-stock-dataset | 25.0% |
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | /mo | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready | 22.2% |
停电造成的损失，占企业销售额比重IND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys | 22.2% |
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | h/a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | /a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
输配电损耗IND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
Infrastructure disruption impact sub-index w 0.5
Composite of disaster damage to critical infrastructure, health and education facilities, basic-service disruptions, economic loss to infrastructure and internet disruption hours, normalised over a ten-year rolling window.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
因灾害受损或被毁的关键基础设施单位IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage | 1 | Class B | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, desinventar | 22.2% |
因灾害受损或被毁的卫生设施IND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged | 1 | Class B | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, who-health-resources-availability-monitoring | 11.1% |
因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | 1 | Class B | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, gadrrres-comprehensive-school-safety | 11.1% |
灾害导致的基本服务中断IND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions | 1 | Class C | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor | 22.2% |
关键基础设施直接经济损失，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | % | Class C | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, wb-gfdrr-pdna-reports | 22.2% |
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | h/a | Class D | ioda-georgia-tech, cloudflare-radar, access-now-keepiton | 11.1% |
05领域
基础设施
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems.
| Sub-domain | 指标 |
|---|---|
| Transport | 6 |
| Digital connectivity | 5 |
| Utilities | 7 |
| Urban systems | 1 |
| Service disruption | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): Sendai D; ISO 37120 / 37122 / 37123.
06指标
All 24 infrastructure indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口IND.INF.transport.rural_road_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.1.1 |
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
人均航空客运量IND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc | INF | Transport | coping capacity | {passengers}/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR |
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | INF | Transport | coping capacity | % | CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
位于高危害区的公路和铁路网络占比IND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share | INF | Transport | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分IND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.c.1 |
每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数IND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | /10*2 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
电网韧性IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
供水网络韧性IND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
具备 72 小时备用电源的关键设施IND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
位于高危害区的供水资产占比IND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
位于高危害区的发电和电网资产占比IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
位于高危害区的生命线设施占比IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp | INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours | INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a | CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
因灾害受损或被毁的关键基础设施单位IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
因灾害受损或被毁的卫生设施IND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
灾害导致的基本服务中断IND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-5 |
关键基础设施直接经济损失，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | INF | Service disruption | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
07引用
Infrastructure fragility index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · INF · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Infrastructure fragility index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏，最近一周
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
Infrastructure fragility index, world, by edition
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。
非洲54
美洲35
亚洲48
欧洲44
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值
Country values
FIG 5 · Infrastructure fragility index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- 瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/inf/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-09Global InfrastructureInfrastructure fragility, service continuity, interdependency of power, water, transport and telecommunications, and investment exposure.→ GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.→ SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk.→ XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints.→ XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.→ XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight.→ XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency.→ XT-12Positioning, navigation and timingDependency of power, telecom, finance and transport on positioning and timing signals; jamming, spoofing and space weather.→ TH-02Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)Hazard, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, preparedness, redundancy and recovery readings for planning and learning, aligned to the Sendai Framework targets.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 8 |
SDG | 6 |
SENDAI | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 3 |
ISO_37123 | 3 |
11贯穿 Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Infrastructure fragility index (GRX-IDX-INF), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/infrastructure-fragility/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000127.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.