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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · Exponential technology series

半导体

半导体供应集中、制造瓶颈、材料和设备依赖以及出口管制风险暴露。

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数

3

External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.

指标

84

3 index domains

Hazard families

36

Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.

方法

86

Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
领域指数
84
indicators in scope
3
危害领域
4
client groups

01范围

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
  2. Which economies depend on single-source chips?
  3. How would a fabrication outage propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Semiconductors index is built

Graph7 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 外部依赖风险

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. 基础设施脆弱性

    Domain index · IDX · INF
    Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
  3. 技术集中风险

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Semiconductors index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-06
    半导体供应集中、制造瓶颈、材料和设备依赖以及出口管制风险暴露。
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Semiconductors index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
指数 数值 变化 变化 % 90% 区间 类别 · 概率 趋势 范围
外部依赖风险NXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
基础设施脆弱性NXS-GRX · INF – – – – –
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.

04指标

84 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标 领域 Sub-domain 组件 单位 级别 Crosswalks
货物和服务出口，现价美元IND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
贸易条件波动性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
自然资源收入，占广义政府收入比重IND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
贸易开放度（进出口总额，占 GDP 比重）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
国际旅游收入，占出口比重IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO 贸易 vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
收到的官方发展援助净额，占 GNI 比重IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO 贸易 exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
出口产品集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
出口市场集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
大宗商品出口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
制成品，占商品出口比重IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
经济复杂度指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
食品进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
燃料进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
进口来源集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
总出口中的国外增加值占比IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
中间品进口供应方集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
外国直接投资净流入，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO 投资 coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
燃料出口，占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
防洪设计标准IND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
建成区面积IND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ 风险暴露 context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
高危害区内的建成区面积IND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ 风险暴露 exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
道路密度IND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
在受控设施中处理的城市固体废物IND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
高度依赖自然的行业 GDP 占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
用水效率IND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT 水资源压力 adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
经安全处理的废水IND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
依赖 GNSS 的活动所产生的 GDP 占比IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
依赖卫星且无备份的关键服务占比IND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
位于高地电危害区的高压电网占比IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
前往最近卫生设施的出行时间IND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
食品进口支出，占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
城市人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
城市人口增长率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
居住在贫民窟的城市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
原油及成品油进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
天然气进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
煤炭进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口IND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
人均航空客运量IND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
位于高危害区的公路和铁路网络占比IND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分IND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数IND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
电网韧性IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
供水网络韧性IND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
具备 72 小时备用电源的关键设施IND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
位于高危害区的供水资产占比IND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
位于高危害区的发电和电网资产占比IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
位于高危害区的生命线设施占比IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
因灾害受损或被毁的关键基础设施单位IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
因灾害受损或被毁的卫生设施IND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
灾害导致的基本服务中断IND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
关键基础设施直接经济损失，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
扰乱关键服务的网络事件IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT 服务增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工智能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工智能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC 生物技术 coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
15 分钟内可获得应急服务的人口IND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05危害

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Solid前沿社会286HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 36 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
类别 领域 危害 Count
AI system failure and misalignment 前沿与指数型技术 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain 前沿与指数型技术 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift 前沿与指数型技术 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale 前沿与指数型技术 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm 前沿与指数型技术 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons 前沿与指数型技术 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
生物技术与合成生物学 前沿与指数型技术 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials 前沿与指数型技术 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality 前沿与指数型技术 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition 前沿与指数型技术 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
气候干预技术 前沿与指数型技术 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure 前沿与指数型技术 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture 前沿与指数型技术 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing 前沿与指数型技术 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures 前沿与指数型技术 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets 前沿与指数型技术 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Fault shaking and rupture 固体地球 Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm 7
Eruption products and unrest 固体地球 Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … 12
Slope failure and mass movement 固体地球 Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … 9
Ground deformation and subsidence 固体地球 Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence 7
Erosion and sediment movement 固体地球 Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation 7
Seabed and deep-sea hazards 固体地球 Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance 5
Organised and collective violence 社会、冲突与经济 Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm 社会、冲突与经济 Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises 社会、冲突与经济 Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour 社会、冲突与经济 Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure 社会、冲突与经济 Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons 社会、冲突与经济 Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure 社会、冲突与经济 Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility 社会、冲突与经济 Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks 社会、冲突与经济 Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition 社会、冲突与经济 Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement 社会、冲突与经济 Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk 社会、冲突与经济 Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies 社会、冲突与经济 Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss 社会、冲突与经济 Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06方法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

市场、贸易与供应链

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

56 methods

网络、人工智能与前沿技术

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08报告

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-06
Edition status
计划中
主题
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Semiconductors series (GRX-SER-XT-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000093.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

国家概况 所有系列

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.