Skip to content

The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · Exponential technology series

Semicondutores

Concentração da oferta de semicondutores, gargalos na fabricação, dependência de materiais e equipamentos e exposição a controles de exportação.

Page GRX-SER-XT-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

3

External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.

Indicadores

84

3 index domains

Hazard families

36

Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.

Métodos

86

Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
índices de domínio
84
indicators in scope
3
domínios de ameaça
4
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
  2. Which economies depend on single-source chips?
  3. How would a fabrication outage propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Semiconductors index is built

Graph7 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Risco de dependência externa

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. Fragilidade da infraestrutura

    Domain index · IDX · INF
    Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
  3. Risco de concentração tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Semiconductors index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-06
    Concentração da oferta de semicondutores, gargalos na fabricação, dependência de materiais e equipamentos e exposição a controles de exportação.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Semiconductors index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Risco de dependência externaNXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
Fragilidade da infraestruturaNXS-GRX · INF – – – – –
Risco de concentração tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.

04Indicadores

84 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Exportações de bens e serviços, em dólares americanos correntesIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilidade dos termos de troca (10 anos)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Receita de recursos naturais, em % da receita do governo geralIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Abertura comercial (exportações mais importações, em % do PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Receitas do turismo internacional, em % das exportaçõesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Comércio vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Remessas pessoais recebidas, em % do PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Ajuda oficial ao desenvolvimento líquida recebida, em % da RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Comércio exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentração de produtos exportados (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração dos mercados de exportação (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Dependência das exportações de commoditiesIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufaturados, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rendas de recursos naturais, em % do PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Índice de complexidade econômicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importações de alimentos, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importações de combustíveis, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração da origem das importações (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Parcela de valor agregado estrangeiro nas exportações brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores das importações de bens intermediáriosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Entradas líquidas de investimento estrangeiro direto, em % do PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Investimento coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Exportações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Padrão de projeto de proteção contra inundaçõesIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Área de superfície construídaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Exposição context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Área construída em zonas de alta ameaçaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Exposição exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Densidade rodoviáriaIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Resíduos sólidos urbanos geridos em instalações controladasIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
PIB em setores altamente dependentes da natureza, em %IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Eficiência do uso da águaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Estresse hídrico adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
Fluxos de águas residuais tratados com segurançaIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
PIB em atividades dependentes de GNSS, em %IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Serviços críticos que dependem de satélites sem redundância, em %IND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Rede de alta tensão em zonas de alta ameaça geoelétrica, em %IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Tempo de deslocamento até o estabelecimento de saúde mais próximoIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Índice de dependência das importações de cereaisIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Fatura das importações de alimentos, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valor agregado da agricultura, silvicultura e pesca, em % do PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
População urbana, em % do totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Crescimento da população urbanaIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
População urbana que vive em favelasIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de petróleo bruto e derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de gás naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de carvãoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Cortes de energia sofridos pelas empresas num mês típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Duração média das interrupções do sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frequência média das interrupções do sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
População rural a menos de 2 km de uma estrada transitável o ano todoIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Desempenho logísticoIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Conectividade do transporte marítimo regular em relação à fronteiraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Passageiros aéreos transportados per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
População urbana com acesso conveniente ao transporte públicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Rede rodoviária e ferroviária em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Pessoas que usam a internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
População coberta por rede móvel, por tecnologiaIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Assinaturas de banda larga fixa por 100 habitantesIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
Redundância das rotas de conectividade internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupção da internet em escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Resiliência da rede elétricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Resiliência da rede de abastecimento de águaIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Instalações críticas com energia de reserva por 72 horasIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Ativos de abastecimento de água em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Ativos de geração e de rede elétrica em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Instalações vitais em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Déficit de investimento em infraestrutura, em % do PIBIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Unidades de infraestrutura crítica danificadas ou destruídas por desastresIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Estabelecimentos de saúde danificados ou destruídos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Estabelecimentos de ensino danificados ou destruídos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Interrupções de serviços básicos atribuídas a desastresIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Perda econômica direta na infraestrutura crítica, em % do PIBIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Incidentes cibernéticos que interrompem serviços críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor agregado dos serviços de TIC, em % do PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologia coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
População a menos de 15 minutos dos serviços de emergênciaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SolidFronteiraSociedade286HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 36 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologia e biologia sintética Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologias de intervenção climática Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Fault shaking and rupture Terra sólida Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm 7
Eruption products and unrest Terra sólida Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … 12
Slope failure and mass movement Terra sólida Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … 9
Ground deformation and subsidence Terra sólida Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence 7
Erosion and sediment movement Terra sólida Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation 7
Seabed and deep-sea hazards Terra sólida Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance 5
Organised and collective violence Sociedade, conflito e economia Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Sociedade, conflito e economia Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Sociedade, conflito e economia Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Sociedade, conflito e economia Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Sociedade, conflito e economia Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Sociedade, conflito e economia Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Sociedade, conflito e economia Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Sociedade, conflito e economia Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Sociedade, conflito e economia Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Sociedade, conflito e economia Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Sociedade, conflito e economia Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Sociedade, conflito e economia Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Sociedade, conflito e economia Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Sociedade, conflito e economia Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

Mercados, comércio e cadeias de suprimentos

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

56 methods

Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteira

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-06
Edition status
prevista
Objeto
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Semiconductors series (GRX-SER-XT-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000093.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.