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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-TEC · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Índice de risco de concentração tecnológica

Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-TECEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incerteza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Estrutura

4 components

10 leaf indicators

Cobertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 100%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
21
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.

computation
How Technology concentration risk is computed
Graph16 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Composto
100%
Índice
  1. Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutores
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0–1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
  2. Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvem
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0–1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
  3. Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedor
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
  4. Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundação
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of AI-model use in the economy’s public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
  5. Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticos
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  6. Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticos
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  7. Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
  8. Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantes
    Indicator · IND · /10*6
    Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
  9. Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturados
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
  10. Technology dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%
    Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
  11. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  12. Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contenção
    Indicator · IND · w 0.5
    Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
  13. Innovation capacity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
  14. Índice de risco de concentração tecnológica
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  15. Fragilidade macrofinanceira e estrutural
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  16. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate technology concentration risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
funciona no seu navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Método

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
100% of weight
Weighting
especialista
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Incerteza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
Muito baixo0.0 a < 2.0
Baixo2.0 a < 3.5
Médio3.5 a < 5.0
Alto5.0 a < 6.5
Muito alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components

4 components, 10 indicators

Technology dependence sub-index w 2

Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, baci-cepii37.5%
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration1Class Enational-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed25.0%
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control%Class Eoecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top50025.0%
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration%Class Epublic-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed12.5%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%

Innovation capacity sub-index w 1

Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp%Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million/10*6Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports%Class Aun-comtrade, wb-wdi20.0%

Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5

Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight{score}Class Eglobal-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators100.0%
05Domínio

Technology and frontier

Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).

Sub-domainIndicadores
Technology capability3
Concentration and dependence2
Inteligência artificial2
Biotecnologia1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.

06Indicadores

All 8 technology and frontier indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicadorDomínioSub-domainComponenteUnidadeNíveisCrosswalks
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECInteligência artificialvulnerability%COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECInteligência artificialvulnerability%COUNTRY
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECBiotecnologiacoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
07Cotação

Technology concentration risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · TEC · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Technology concentration risk index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Edição anterior
–
Range since 2016
–
Composto acoplado
–
Pontuação de acoplamento S
–
Pulse, última semana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Método
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sorteios
1,000
Technology concentration risk index, world, by edition

Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
África54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Américas35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Ásia48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Europa44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Oceania14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Ainda não há variações. As alterações desde a edição anterior serão listadas aqui a partir da segunda edição, com os indicadores que as motivaram.
08Valores

Country values

FIG 5 · Technology concentration risk index: countries (values when released)
Carregando o mapa
AndorraAntígua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoresCabo VerdeDominicaMicronésia (Estados Federados da)GranadaQuiribátiSão Cristóvão e NévisSanta LúciaListenstaineMônacoMaldivasIlhas MarshallMaltaMaurícioNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeichelesTongaTuvaluSanta SéSão Vicente e GranadinasSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chave de observação
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. GS-15Global Science and engineeringThe scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk. SR-13Strategic technologyConcentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints. XT-04Sovereign compute, HPC and cloudCompute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute. XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight. XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency. XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency. XT-14Software and supply-chain integrityOpen-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems. XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks. XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructureDistributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks. XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
SDG3
WB_WDI3
11Em todo o Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Technology concentration risk index (GRX-IDX-TEC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/technology-concentration-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000130.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Situação

A metodologia, a estrutura e as definições do The Global Risks Index constituem um projeto de trabalho preparatório (2026), divulgado para revisão e comentários e não para implementação. Nenhum valor aparece até que uma edição seja publicada a partir de um corte de evidências governado; os valores passam então a ter intervalos, classes, fontes e o respectivo percurso de correção. Os simuladores executam os métodos publicados sobre números que você escolhe e nunca mostram um valor do NXS-GRX.

O que o NXS-GRX não é

O NXS-GRX é informação de pesquisa e de análise de risco. Não é rating de crédito ou ESG e não usa escala de rating, não é referência para instrumentos financeiros, não é estatística oficial, não é alerta de emergência nem classificação oficial e não é aconselhamento. Não deve ser usado para avaliar pessoas físicas. As classes de risco são faixas em uma escala publicada, nunca classificações de países ou pessoas.

Instituições e fontes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor inclui a atribuição das suas fontes, que mantêm as suas próprias licenças. Os nomes externos são citados apenas para fins de interoperabilidade. Os textos de autoria da Nexus destinam-se a ser publicados sob CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.