The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-TEC · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility
技术集中风险指数
Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
Page GRX-IDX-TECEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
不确定性
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
结构
4 components
10 leaf indicators
覆盖范围
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 100%
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
21
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.
computation
How Technology concentration risk is computedGraph16 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
- 半导体进口供应方集中度Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0–1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
- 云基础设施提供方集中度Indicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0–1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
- 受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力Indicator · IND · %Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
- 基础模型提供方集中度Indicator · IND · %Share of AI-model use in the economy’s public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
- 关键矿产进口供应方集中度Indicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
- 关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比Indicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- 研发总支出，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
- 每百万居民研究人员数Indicator · IND · /10*6Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
- 高技术出口，占制成品出口比重Indicator · IND · %Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
- Technology dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- 高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督Indicator · IND · w 0.5Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
- Innovation capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
- 技术集中风险指数Domain index · IDX · arithmeticIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- 宏观金融与结构脆弱性Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate technology concentration risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03方法
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 100% of weight
- Weighting
- 专家
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不确定性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components
4 components, 10 indicators
Technology dependence sub-index w 2
Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, baci-cepii | 37.5% |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | 1 | Class E | national-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed | 25.0% |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | % | Class E | oecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top500 | 25.0% |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | % | Class E | public-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed | 12.5% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
关键矿产进口中最大单一供应方占比IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
Innovation capacity sub-index w 1
Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | % | Class A | unesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi | 40.0% |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | /10*6 | Class A | unesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi | 40.0% |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5
Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | {score} | Class E | global-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators | 100.0% |
05领域
Technology and frontier
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).
| Sub-domain | 指标 |
|---|---|
| Technology capability | 3 |
| Concentration and dependence | 2 |
| 人工智能 | 2 |
| 生物技术 | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.
06指标
All 8 technology and frontier indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
07引用
Technology concentration risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · TEC · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Technology concentration risk index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏，最近一周
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
Technology concentration risk index, world, by edition
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。
非洲54
美洲35
亚洲48
欧洲44
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值
Country values
FIG 5 · Technology concentration risk index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- 瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX.→ GS-15Global Science and engineeringThe scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk.→ SR-13Strategic technologyConcentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency.→ XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.→ XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints.→ XT-04Sovereign compute, HPC and cloudCompute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute.→ XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems.→ XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.→ XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight.→ XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency.→ XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency.→ XT-14Software and supply-chain integrityOpen-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems.→ XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published.→ XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.→ XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructureDistributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk.→ XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.→ XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks.→ XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
SDG | 3 |
WB_WDI | 3 |
11贯穿 Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Technology concentration risk index (GRX-IDX-TEC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/technology-concentration-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000130.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.