The Global Risks Index · XT-03 · Exponential technology series
电信、开放无线网络与边缘计算
电信韧性、开放式和 AI 原生无线接入网、专用无线网络、边缘计算和频谱限制。
Page GRX-SER-XT-03Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-03 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数
3
Infrastructure fragility · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.
指标
65
3 index domains
Hazard families
21
Built systems · Information and cyber-physical systems · Space and near-Earth.
方法
83
Critical infrastructure and industrial systems · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.
3
领域指数
65
indicators in scope
3
危害领域
3
client groups
01范围
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- How resilient are national networks to outage and attack?
- Where does edge and radio-network dependency concentrate?
- What are the public-safety dependencies on telecom?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Telecommunications, open radio networks and edge index is built
Graph7 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
基础设施脆弱性Domain index · IDX · INFIndex of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
-
网络风险Domain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
技术集中风险Domain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Telecommunications, open radio networks and edge indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-03电信韧性、开放式和 AI 原生无线接入网、专用无线网络、边缘计算和频谱限制。
-
Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-03 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Telecommunications, open radio networks and edge index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
基础设施脆弱性NXS-GRX · INF |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
网络风险NXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Infrastructure, Cyber and digital, Technology and frontier.
04指标
65 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
防洪设计标准IND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard |
HAZ | Flood | coping capacity | a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
建成区面积IND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area |
HAZ | 风险暴露 | context | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
高危害区内的建成区面积IND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed |
HAZ | 风险暴露 | exposure | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
道路密度IND.ENV.land.road_density |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | km/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
在受控设施中处理的城市固体废物IND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share |
ENV | Pollution and waste | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW |
经安全处理的废水IND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share |
WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
依赖 GNSS 的活动所产生的 GDP 占比IND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
依赖卫星且无备份的关键服务占比IND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
位于高地电危害区的高压电网占比IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
前往最近卫生设施的出行时间IND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
城市人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
城市人口增长率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
居住在贫民窟的城市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
企业在典型月份遭遇的停电次数IND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
系统平均停电持续时间（SAIDI）IND.ENE.reliability.saidi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
系统平均停电频率（SAIFI）IND.ENE.reliability.saifi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口IND.INF.transport.rural_road_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.1.1 |
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
人均航空客运量IND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {passengers}/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR |
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
位于高危害区的公路和铁路网络占比IND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share |
INF | Transport | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分IND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.c.1 |
每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数IND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | /10*2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
全国范围互联网中断小时数IND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
电网韧性IND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
供水网络韧性IND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
具备 72 小时备用电源的关键设施IND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
位于高危害区的供水资产占比IND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
位于高危害区的发电和电网资产占比IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
位于高危害区的生命线设施占比IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
基础设施投资缺口，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp |
INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours |
INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a |
CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
因灾害受损或被毁的关键基础设施单位IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
因灾害受损或被毁的卫生设施IND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
因灾害受损或被毁的教育设施IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
灾害导致的基本服务中断IND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-5 |
关键基础设施直接经济损失，占 GDP 比重IND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp |
INF | Service disruption | impact | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
ITU 全球网络安全指数得分IND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
ITU 全球网络安全指数等级IND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 技术措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
ITU GCI 能力建设措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
ITU GCI 合作措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
国家计算机事件响应团队已运作IND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
每百万人重大网络事件数IND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
扰乱关键服务的网络事件IND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
ICT 服务增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
15 分钟内可获得应急服务的人口IND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05危害
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Structural and civil failure | 建成系统 | Building collapse, Facade and cladding failure, Non-building structure failure, Bridge failure, Tunnel failure, Dam failure, Levee breach, Pipeline rupture | 8 |
| Utility and communication network outage | 建成系统 | Widespread power outage, Water supply failure, Sewer and drain failure, Gas supply network failure, Telecommunications outage, Emergency communications failure | 6 |
| Transport accidents | 建成系统 | Air transport accident, Maritime accident, Inland waterway accident, Rail accident, Road crash | 5 |
| Industrial and process accidents | 建成系统 | Industrial explosion, Reactive chemical store explosion, Industrial fire, Building and urban fire, Explosives accident, Mine accident, Oil and gas extraction accident, Battery thermal runaway fire … | 15 |
| Energy system instability and shortfall | 建成系统 | Low-inertia grid instability, System frequency collapse, Voltage collapse, Mass inverter disconnection, Grid power oscillation, Generation adequacy shortfall, Low wind and solar energy drought, Drought-driven hydropower shortfall … | 22 |
| Water and wastewater system failure | 建成系统 | Wastewater treatment plant failure, Distribution network contamination intrusion, Water treatment dosing error, Prolonged drinking-water advisory, Desalination plant outage, Raw-water intake loss, Chronic distribution leakage, Intermittent piped supply … | 9 |
| Telecom and data-centre failure | 建成系统 | Data-centre outage, Data-centre fire, Mobile or fixed core network failure, Terrestrial fibre backbone cut, Internet exchange or landing hub failure, Time and synchronisation failure, Telecom backup power exhaustion, Broadcast transmission loss | 8 |
| Space-based service loss | 建成系统 | Navigation satellite system fault, Satellite communications outage, Weather and Earth-observation satellite gap, Satellite ground segment failure | 4 |
| Seabed infrastructure damage | 建成系统 | Subsea pipeline damage, Subsea power cable damage, Covert seabed infrastructure sabotage | 3 |
| Transport network disruption | 建成系统 | Air traffic management failure, Large-scale airspace closure, Rail network outage, Heat-induced track buckling, Strategic road network closure, Low-water navigation restriction, Navigation lock or canal structure failure, Dangerous goods transport accident … | 12 |
| Food system infrastructure failure | 建成系统 | Food storage loss, Irrigation system failure, Food processing bottleneck, Strategic food reserve depletion, Loss of energy for food production | 5 |
| Urban and building-stock stress | 建成系统 | Building overheating, Seismically and structurally vulnerable stock, Defective building material in use, Construction and temporary works collapse, Tunnelling and excavation ground damage, High-rise evacuation failure | 6 |
| Ageing and degraded infrastructure | 建成系统 | Infrastructure deterioration, Deferred maintenance backlog, Reinforced concrete deterioration, Metal fatigue cracking, Ageing dam and reservoir stock, Legacy technology obsolescence, Infrastructure skills shortage | 7 |
| Malicious compromise | 信息与网络物理系统 | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | 信息与网络物理系统 | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | 信息与网络物理系统 | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | 信息与网络物理系统 | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | 信息与网络物理系统 | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | 信息与网络物理系统 | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
| Solar-terrestrial storms | 空间与近地 | Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … | 9 |
| Impacts and orbital hazards | 空间与近地 | Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter | 8 |
06方法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
27 methods
关键基础设施和工业系统
Asset Reliability · Process Safety · HAZOP · FMEA FMECA · Industrial Fault Tree · Industrial Event Tree · LOPA …
56 methods
网络、人工智能与前沿技术
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.
08报告
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-03- Edition status
- 计划中
- 主题
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
09引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Telecommunications, open radio networks and edge series (GRX-SER-XT-03), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-03/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000090.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-03:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.