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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

外部依赖风险指数

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

不确定性

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

结构

5 components

22 leaf indicators

覆盖范围

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
  1. 贸易开放度（进出口总额，占 GDP 比重）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. 国际旅游收入，占出口比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. 收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. 收到的官方发展援助净额，占 GNI 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. 外国直接投资净流入，占 GDP 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. 出口产品集中度（标准化 HHI）
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. 出口市场集中度（标准化 HHI）
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. 大宗商品出口依赖度
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. 自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. 贸易条件波动性（10 年）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. 经济复杂度指数
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. 食品进口，占商品进口比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. 燃料进口，占商品进口比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. 关键矿产净进口依赖度
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. 进口来源集中度（标准化 HHI）
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. 总出口中的国外增加值占比
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. 中间品进口供应方集中度
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. 受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. 经常账户余额，占 GDP 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. 储备可支付进口月数
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. 短期外债，占储备比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. 外债存量，占 GNI 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. 外部依赖风险指数
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. 宏观金融与结构脆弱性
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03方法

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
专家
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
不确定性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

指标单位证据来源占比
贸易开放度（进出口总额，占 GDP 比重）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
国际旅游收入，占出口比重IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
收到的官方发展援助净额，占 GNI 比重IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
外国直接投资净流入，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

指标单位证据来源占比
出口产品集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
出口市场集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
大宗商品出口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
贸易条件波动性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
经济复杂度指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

指标单位证据来源占比
食品进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
燃料进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
进口来源集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

指标单位证据来源占比
总出口中的国外增加值占比IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
中间品进口供应方集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

指标单位证据来源占比
经常账户余额，占 GDP 比重IND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
储备可支付进口月数IND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
短期外债，占储备比重IND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
外债存量，占 GNI 比重IND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05领域

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domain指标
贸易4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
投资1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06指标

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标领域Sub-domain组件单位级别Crosswalks
贸易开放度（进出口总额，占 GDP 比重）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECO贸易exposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
国际旅游收入，占出口比重IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECO贸易vulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
收到的个人汇款，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECO贸易exposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
收到的官方发展援助净额，占 GNI 比重IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECO贸易exposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
出口产品集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
出口市场集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
大宗商品出口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
制成品，占商品出口比重IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
经济复杂度指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
食品进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
燃料进口，占商品进口比重IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
进口来源集中度（标准化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
总出口中的国外增加值占比IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
中间品进口供应方集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
受海上咽喉要道影响的海运贸易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
外国直接投资净流入，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECO投资coping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07引用

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
上一版
–
Range since 2016
–
耦合综合
–
耦合得分 S
–
脉搏，最近一周
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
方法
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
抽样次数
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
非洲54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
美洲35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
亚洲48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
欧洲44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
大洋洲14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
安道尔安提瓜和巴布达巴林巴巴多斯科摩罗佛得角多米尼克密克罗尼西亚（联邦）格林纳达基里巴斯圣基茨和尼维斯圣卢西亚列支敦士登摩纳哥马尔代夫马绍尔群岛马耳他毛里求斯瑙鲁帕劳新加坡圣马力诺圣多美和普林西比塞舌尔汤加图瓦卢教廷圣文森特和格林纳丁斯萨摩亚
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
观测键
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-03Supply chains, trade and chokepointsTrade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11贯穿 Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.