The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility
対外依存リスク指数
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
不確実性
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
構成
5 components
22 leaf indicators
対象範囲
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
computation
How External dependence risk is computedGraph30 nodes
グラフ
01指標
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04柱
05総合
100%
索引
- 貿易開放度（輸出と輸入の合計、GDP 比）Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- 国際観光収入（輸出に占める割合）Indicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- 個人送金受取額（GDP 比）Indicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- 政府開発援助の純受取額（GNI 比）Indicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- 海外直接投資の純流入（GDP 比）Indicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- 輸出品目の集中度（正規化 HHI）Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- 輸出市場の集中度（正規化 HHI）Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- 一次産品輸出への依存度Indicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- 天然資源レント（GDP 比）Indicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- 交易条件の変動性（10 年）Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- 経済複雑性指数Indicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- 食料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）Indicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- 燃料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）Indicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- 重要鉱物の純輸入依存度Indicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- 輸入元の集中度（正規化 HHI）Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- 総輸出に占める海外付加価値の割合Indicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- 中間財輸入の供給元集中度Indicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- 海上交通の要衝にさらされる海上貿易Indicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- 経常収支（GDP 比）Indicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- 外貨準備（輸入月数）Indicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- 短期対外債務（外貨準備比）Indicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- 対外債務残高（GNI 比）Indicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- 対外依存リスク指数Domain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- マクロ金融と構造の脆弱性Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未実行進行中完了
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
ブラウザで動作
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03手法
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- 専門家
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不確実性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
非常に低い0.0〜< 2.0
低い2.0〜< 3.5
中程度3.5〜< 5.0
高い5.0〜< 6.5
非常に高い6.5 から 10.0
04Components
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
貿易開放度（輸出と輸入の合計、GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
国際観光収入（輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
個人送金受取額（GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
政府開発援助の純受取額（GNI 比）IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
海外直接投資の純流入（GDP 比）IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
輸出品目の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
輸出市場の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
一次産品輸出への依存度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
天然資源レント（GDP 比）IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
交易条件の変動性（10 年）IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
経済複雑性指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
食料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
燃料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
輸入元の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
総輸出に占める海外付加価値の割合IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
中間財輸入の供給元集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
海上交通の要衝にさらされる海上貿易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| 指標 | 単位 | エビデンス | 出典 | 割合 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
経常収支（GDP 比）IND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
外貨準備（輸入月数）IND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
短期対外債務（外貨準備比）IND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
対外債務残高（GNI 比）IND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
05分野
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | 指標 |
|---|---|
| 貿易 | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| 投資 | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
06指標
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指標 | 分野 | Sub-domain | 構成要素 | 単位 | レベル | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
貿易開放度（輸出と輸入の合計、GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | 貿易 | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
国際観光収入（輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | 貿易 | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
個人送金受取額（GDP 比）IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | 貿易 | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
政府開発援助の純受取額（GNI 比）IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | 貿易 | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
輸出品目の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
輸出市場の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
一次産品輸出への依存度IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
工業製品（商品輸出に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
天然資源レント（GDP 比）IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
経済複雑性指数IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
食料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
燃料輸入（商品輸入に占める割合）IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
輸入元の集中度（正規化 HHI）IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
総輸出に占める海外付加価値の割合IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
中間財輸入の供給元集中度IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
海上交通の要衝にさらされる海上貿易IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
海外直接投資の純流入（GDP 比）IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | 投資 | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
07引用
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
- 前回の版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 結合総合
- –
- 結合スコア S
- –
- パルス、直近 1 週間
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 手法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽出
- 1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition
公開済みの値はまだありません。最初の版で、区間の帯と区分の境界とともに履歴がここに描かれます。
アフリカ54
南北アメリカ35
アジア48
ヨーロッパ44
変動はまだありません。 前版からの変化は、第 2 版以降、その要因となった指標とともにここに掲載されます。
08値
Country values
FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
地図を読み込み中
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- タイル
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 観測キー
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09シリーズ
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-03Supply chains, trade and chokepointsTrade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.→ XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
11Nexus 全体で
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12引用
引用と再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.