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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

External dependence risk index

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Nediyarî

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Avahî

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Vegirtin

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Grafîk
01Nîşander
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Pêkhatî
100%
Lîste
  1. Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinê
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNI
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xav
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Guhêrbariya mercên bazirganiyê (10 salî)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborî
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelan
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelan
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîng
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî de
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn de
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayî
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Hevsengiya hesabê heyî, para GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. Rezerv bi mehên îthalatê
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Deynê derve yê kurtdem, para rezervan
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Stoka deynê derve, para GNI
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. External dependence risk index
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Macro-financial and structural fragility
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
runs in your browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Rêbaz

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
pispor
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Nediyarî
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Guhêrbariya mercên bazirganiyê (10 salî)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

NîşanderYekîneDelîlÇavkanîPar
Hevsengiya hesabê heyî, para GDPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
Rezerv bi mehên îthalatêIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Deynê derve yê kurtdem, para rezervanIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Stoka deynê derve, para GNIIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Qad

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainNîşander
Bazirganî4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Veberhênan1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Nîşander

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
NîşanderQadSub-domainComponentYekîneAstCrosswalks
Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOBazirganîexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOBazirganîvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOBazirganîexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOBazirganîexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Berhemên çêkirî, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOVeberhênancoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Quote

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
–
Range since 2016
–
Coupled composite
–
Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Rêbaz
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
08Nirx

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Nexşe tê barkirin
AndoraAntîgua û BarbûdaBehreynBarbadosKomorKabo VerdeDomînîkaMîkronezya (Dewletên Federal ên)GrenadaKirîbatîSaint Kitts û NevisSanta LûsyaLîhtenştaynMonakoMaldîvGiravên MarşalMaltaMorîsNaûrûPalaûSingapûrSan MarînoSao Tome û PrînsîpeSeyşelTongaTûvalûKursiya PîrozSaint Vincent û GrenadînSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Rêbera çavdêriyê
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Jêgirtin

Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.