External dependence risk index
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
5 components
22 leaf indicators
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
- Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIndicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIndicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIndicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIndicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIndicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Guhêrbariya mercên bazirganiyê (10 salî)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIndicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIndicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIndicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIndicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIndicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIndicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIndicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- Hevsengiya hesabê heyî, para GDPIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- Rezerv bi mehên îthalatêIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Deynê derve yê kurtdem, para rezervanIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Stoka deynê derve, para GNIIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- External dependence risk indexDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- Macro-financial and structural fragilityPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- pispor
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Nediyarî
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
Guhêrbariya mercên bazirganiyê (10 salî)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Hevsengiya hesabê heyî, para GDPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
Rezerv bi mehên îthalatêIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Deynê derve yê kurtdem, para rezervanIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Stoka deynê derve, para GNIIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | Nîşander |
|---|---|
| Bazirganî | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| Veberhênan | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
| Nîşander | Qad | Sub-domain | Component | Yekîne | Ast | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Bazirganî | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Bazirganî | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Bazirganî | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Bazirganî | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Berhemên çêkirî, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Veberhênan | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Rêbaz
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Country values
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Rêbera çavdêriyê
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · Food Nexus · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics.
Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Sazî û çavkanî
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.