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⁨The Global Risks Index⁩
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

شاخص ریسک وابستگی خارجی

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

عدم قطعیت

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

ساختار

5 components

22 leaf indicators

پوشش

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
گراف
01شاخص‌ها
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04رکن
05ترکیبی
100%
نمایه
  1. باز بودن تجاری (صادرات به‌علاوهٔ واردات، سهم از GDP)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. درآمدهای گردشگری بین‌المللی، سهم از صادرات
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. حواله‌های شخصی دریافتی، سهم از GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. کمک رسمی خالص توسعه‌ای دریافتی، سهم از GNI
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. ورود خالص سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، سهم از GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. تمرکز محصولات صادراتی (HHI نرمال‌شده)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی (HHI نرمال‌شده)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. وابستگی به صادرات کالاهای اساسی
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. رانت منابع طبیعی، سهم از GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. نوسان رابطهٔ مبادله (10 ساله)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. واردات مواد غذایی، سهم از واردات کالا
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. واردات سوخت، سهم از واردات کالا
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. اتکای خالص به واردات کانی‌های حیاتی
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. تمرکز مبدأ واردات (HHI نرمال‌شده)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. سهم ارزش افزودهٔ خارجی در صادرات ناخالص
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کالاهای واسطه‌ای
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. تجارت دریایی در مواجهه با گلوگاه‌های دریایی
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. تراز حساب جاری، سهم از GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. ذخایر بر حسب ماه‌های واردات
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. بدهی خارجی کوتاه‌مدت، سهم از ذخایر
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. موجودی بدهی خارجی، سهم از GNI
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. شاخص ریسک وابستگی خارجی
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. شکنندگی کلان‌مالی و ساختاری
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
اجرا نشدهدر حال انجامانجام شد
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
در مرورگر شما اجرا می‌شود
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03روش

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
کارشناس
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
عدم قطعیت
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
بسیار کم0.0 تا < 2.0
کم2.0 تا < 3.5
متوسط3.5 تا < 5.0
زیاد5.0 تا < 6.5
بسیار زیاد6.5 تا 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
باز بودن تجاری (صادرات به‌علاوهٔ واردات، سهم از GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
درآمدهای گردشگری بین‌المللی، سهم از صادراتIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
حواله‌های شخصی دریافتی، سهم از GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
کمک رسمی خالص توسعه‌ای دریافتی، سهم از GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
ورود خالص سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، سهم از GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
تمرکز محصولات صادراتی (HHI نرمال‌شده)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی (HHI نرمال‌شده)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
وابستگی به صادرات کالاهای اساسیIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
رانت منابع طبیعی، سهم از GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
نوسان رابطهٔ مبادله (10 ساله)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادیIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
واردات مواد غذایی، سهم از واردات کالاIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
واردات سوخت، سهم از واردات کالاIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
اتکای خالص به واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
تمرکز مبدأ واردات (HHI نرمال‌شده)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
سهم ارزش افزودهٔ خارجی در صادرات ناخالصIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کالاهای واسطه‌ایIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
تجارت دریایی در مواجهه با گلوگاه‌های دریاییIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
تراز حساب جاری، سهم از GDPIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
ذخایر بر حسب ماه‌های وارداتIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
بدهی خارجی کوتاه‌مدت، سهم از ذخایرIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
موجودی بدهی خارجی، سهم از GNIIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05حوزه

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainشاخص‌ها
تجارت4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
سرمایه‌گذاری1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06شاخص‌ها

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
نشانگرحوزهSub-domainجزءواحدسطوحCrosswalks
باز بودن تجاری (صادرات به‌علاوهٔ واردات، سهم از GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOتجارتexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
درآمدهای گردشگری بین‌المللی، سهم از صادراتIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOتجارتvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
حواله‌های شخصی دریافتی، سهم از GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOتجارتexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
کمک رسمی خالص توسعه‌ای دریافتی، سهم از GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOتجارتexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
تمرکز محصولات صادراتی (HHI نرمال‌شده)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
تمرکز بازارهای صادراتی (HHI نرمال‌شده)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
وابستگی به صادرات کالاهای اساسیIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
کالاهای ساخته‌شده، سهم از صادرات کالاIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
رانت منابع طبیعی، سهم از GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادیIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
واردات مواد غذایی، سهم از واردات کالاIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
واردات سوخت، سهم از واردات کالاIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
اتکای خالص به واردات کانی‌های حیاتیIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
تمرکز مبدأ واردات (HHI نرمال‌شده)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
سهم ارزش افزودهٔ خارجی در صادرات ناخالصIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
تمرکز تأمین‌کنندگان واردات کالاهای واسطه‌ایIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
تجارت دریایی در مواجهه با گلوگاه‌های دریاییIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
ورود خالص سرمایه‌گذاری مستقیم خارجی، سهم از GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOسرمایه‌گذاریcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Quote

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
–
Range since 2016
–
Coupled composite
–
Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
روش
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
هنوز هیچ جابه‌جایی‌ای نیست. از ویراست دوم به بعد، تغییرات نسبت به ویراست پیشین همراه با نشانگرهایی که آن‌ها را رقم زده‌اند در اینجا فهرست می‌شوند.
08مقادیر

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
در حال بارگذاری نقشه
آندوراآنتیگوا و باربودابحرینباربادوسکومورکیپ ورددومینیکامیکرونزی (ایالات فدرال)گرناداکیریباتیسنت کیتس و نویسسنت لوسیالیختن‌اشتاینموناکومالدیوجزایر مارشالمالتموریسنائوروپالائوسنگاپورسان مارینوسائوتومه و پرنسیپسیشلتونگاتووالوواتیکانسنت وینسنت و گرنادین‌هاساموآ
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
راهنمای مشاهدات
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12استناد

استناد و استفادهٔ دوباره

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.