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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Índice de risco de dependência externa

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incerteza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Estrutura

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Cobertura

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Composto
100%
Índice
  1. Abertura comercial (exportações mais importações, em % do PIB)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Receitas do turismo internacional, em % das exportações
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Remessas pessoais recebidas, em % do PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Ajuda oficial ao desenvolvimento líquida recebida, em % da RNB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Entradas líquidas de investimento estrangeiro direto, em % do PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. Concentração de produtos exportados (HHI normalizado)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Concentração dos mercados de exportação (HHI normalizado)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Dependência das exportações de commodities
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Rendas de recursos naturais, em % do PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Volatilidade dos termos de troca (10 anos)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Índice de complexidade econômica
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Importações de alimentos, em % das importações de mercadorias
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Importações de combustíveis, em % das importações de mercadorias
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticos
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. Concentração da origem das importações (HHI normalizado)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Parcela de valor agregado estrangeiro nas exportações brutas
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Concentração de fornecedores das importações de bens intermediários
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimos
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Saldo em conta corrente, em % do PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. Reservas em meses de importações
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Dívida externa de curto prazo, em % das reservas
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Estoque da dívida externa, em % da RNB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. Índice de risco de dependência externa
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Fragilidade macrofinanceira e estrutural
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
funciona no seu navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Método

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
especialista
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Incerteza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Muito baixo0.0 a < 2.0
Baixo2.0 a < 3.5
Médio3.5 a < 5.0
Alto5.0 a < 6.5
Muito alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Abertura comercial (exportações mais importações, em % do PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Receitas do turismo internacional, em % das exportaçõesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Remessas pessoais recebidas, em % do PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Ajuda oficial ao desenvolvimento líquida recebida, em % da RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Entradas líquidas de investimento estrangeiro direto, em % do PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Concentração de produtos exportados (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
Concentração dos mercados de exportação (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Dependência das exportações de commoditiesIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Rendas de recursos naturais, em % do PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Volatilidade dos termos de troca (10 anos)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Índice de complexidade econômicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Importações de alimentos, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Importações de combustíveis, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
Concentração da origem das importações (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Parcela de valor agregado estrangeiro nas exportações brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Concentração de fornecedores das importações de bens intermediáriosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Saldo em conta corrente, em % do PIBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
Reservas em meses de importaçõesIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Dívida externa de curto prazo, em % das reservasIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Estoque da dívida externa, em % da RNBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Domínio

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainIndicadores
Comércio4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Investimento1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Indicadores

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicadorDomínioSub-domainComponenteUnidadeNíveisCrosswalks
Abertura comercial (exportações mais importações, em % do PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOComércioexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Receitas do turismo internacional, em % das exportaçõesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOComérciovulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Remessas pessoais recebidas, em % do PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOComércioexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Ajuda oficial ao desenvolvimento líquida recebida, em % da RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOComércioexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentração de produtos exportados (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentração dos mercados de exportação (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Dependência das exportações de commoditiesIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufaturados, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rendas de recursos naturais, em % do PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Índice de complexidade econômicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
Importações de alimentos, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importações de combustíveis, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Concentração da origem das importações (HHI normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Parcela de valor agregado estrangeiro nas exportações brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores das importações de bens intermediáriosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Comércio marítimo exposto a pontos de estrangulamento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Entradas líquidas de investimento estrangeiro direto, em % do PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOInvestimentocoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Cotação

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Edição anterior
–
Range since 2016
–
Composto acoplado
–
Pontuação de acoplamento S
–
Pulse, última semana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Método
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sorteios
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Ainda não há variações. As alterações desde a edição anterior serão listadas aqui a partir da segunda edição, com os indicadores que as motivaram.
08Valores

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Carregando o mapa
AndorraAntígua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoresCabo VerdeDominicaMicronésia (Estados Federados da)GranadaQuiribátiSão Cristóvão e NévisSanta LúciaListenstaineMônacoMaldivasIlhas MarshallMaltaMaurícioNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeichelesTongaTuvaluSanta SéSão Vicente e GranadinasSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chave de observação
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Em todo o Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.