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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

대외 의존 리스크 지수

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

불확실성

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

구조

5 components

22 leaf indicators

적용 범위

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
그래프
01지표
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04기둥
05종합
100%
색인
  1. 무역 개방도(수출과 수입 합계, GDP 대비 비율)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. 국제 관광 수입, 수출 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. 개인 송금 유입, GDP 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. 공적개발원조 순수취액, GNI 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. 외국인직접투자 순유입, GDP 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. 수출 품목 집중도(정규화 HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. 수출 시장 집중도(정규화 HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. 원자재 수출 의존도
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. 천연자원 지대, GDP 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. 교역조건 변동성(10년)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. 경제 복잡성 지수
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. 식품 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. 연료 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. 핵심 광물 순수입 의존도
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. 수입 원산지 집중도(정규화 HHI)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. 총수출 중 해외 부가가치 비중
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. 중간재 수입 공급처 집중도
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. 해상 병목 지점에 노출된 해상 무역
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. 경상수지, GDP 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. 외환보유액(수입 개월 수)
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. 단기 대외채무, 외환보유액 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. 대외채무 잔액, GNI 대비 비율
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. 대외 의존 리스크 지수
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. 거시금융 및 구조적 취약성
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
실행 전진행 중완료
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
브라우저에서 실행됨
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03방법

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
전문가
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
불확실성
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
매우 낮음0.0 이상 2.0 미만
낮음2.0 이상 3.5 미만
중간3.5 이상 5.0 미만
높음5.0 이상 6.5 미만
매우 높음6.5~10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

지표단위근거출처비중
무역 개방도(수출과 수입 합계, GDP 대비 비율)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
국제 관광 수입, 수출 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
개인 송금 유입, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
공적개발원조 순수취액, GNI 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
외국인직접투자 순유입, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

지표단위근거출처비중
수출 품목 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
수출 시장 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
원자재 수출 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
천연자원 지대, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
교역조건 변동성(10년)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
경제 복잡성 지수IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

지표단위근거출처비중
식품 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
연료 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
핵심 광물 순수입 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
수입 원산지 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

지표단위근거출처비중
총수출 중 해외 부가가치 비중IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
중간재 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
해상 병목 지점에 노출된 해상 무역IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

지표단위근거출처비중
경상수지, GDP 대비 비율IND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
외환보유액(수입 개월 수)IND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
단기 대외채무, 외환보유액 대비 비율IND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
대외채무 잔액, GNI 대비 비율IND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05영역

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domain지표
무역4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
투자1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06지표

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
지표영역Sub-domain구성 요소단위단계Crosswalks
무역 개방도(수출과 수입 합계, GDP 대비 비율)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECO무역exposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
국제 관광 수입, 수출 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECO무역vulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
개인 송금 유입, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECO무역exposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
공적개발원조 순수취액, GNI 대비 비율IND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECO무역exposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
수출 품목 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
수출 시장 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
원자재 수출 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
공산품, 상품 수출 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
천연자원 지대, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
경제 복잡성 지수IND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
식품 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
연료 수입, 상품 수입 대비 비율IND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
핵심 광물 순수입 의존도IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
수입 원산지 집중도(정규화 HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
총수출 중 해외 부가가치 비중IND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
중간재 수입 공급처 집중도IND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
해상 병목 지점에 노출된 해상 무역IND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
외국인직접투자 순유입, GDP 대비 비율IND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECO투자coping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07인용

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
값은 판과 함께 게시되며, 구간, 등급, 변화가 여기에 표시됩니다.
이전 판
–
Range since 2016
–
결합 종합
–
결합 점수 S
–
동향, 최근 1주
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
방법
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
추출
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

아직 공개된 값이 없습니다. 첫 판에서 구간 띠와 등급 경계와 함께 이력이 여기에 그려집니다.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
아프리카54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
아메리카35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
아시아48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
유럽44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
오세아니아14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
아직 변동이 없습니다. 두 번째 판부터는 이전 판 대비 변화가 이를 이끈 지표와 함께 여기에 표시됩니다.
08값

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
지도를 불러오는 중
안도라앤티가 바부다바레인바베이도스코모로카보베르데도미니카미크로네시아그레나다키리바시세인트키츠 네비스세인트루시아리히텐슈타인모나코몰디브마셜 제도몰타모리셔스나우루팔라우싱가포르산마리노상투메 프린시페세이셸통가투발루교황청세인트빈센트 그레나딘사모아
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
타일
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
관측 키
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09시리즈

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-03Supply chains, trade and chokepointsTrade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Nexus 전반

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12인용

인용과 재사용

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

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상태

Global Risks Index의 방법론, 구조, 정의는 검토와 의견 수렴을 위해 배포된 예비 작업 초안(2026)이며 이행용이 아닙니다. 관리되는 근거 마감에 따라 판이 공개되기 전까지는 어떠한 값도 표시되지 않으며, 공개 후 값에는 구간, 등급, 출처, 정정 경로가 함께 표시됩니다. 시뮬레이터는 귀하가 선택한 숫자에 공개된 방법을 적용할 뿐이며 NXS-GRX 값을 표시하지 않습니다.

NXS-GRX가 아닌 것

NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.

기관과 출처

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

모든 값에는 출처 표시가 함께 제공되며, 각 출처는 고유한 라이선스를 유지합니다. 외부 명칭은 상호운용성을 위해서만 인용됩니다. Nexus가 작성한 텍스트는 공개 시 CC BY 4.0 적용을 예정합니다.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.