Indeks risiko ketergantungan eksternal
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
5 components
22 leaf indicators
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
- Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap eksporIndicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDBIndicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNBIndicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDBIndicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditasIndicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDBIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Volatilitas nilai tukar perdagangan (10 tahun)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- Indeks kompleksitas ekonomiIndicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barangIndicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIndicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIndicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor brutoIndicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadiIndicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritimIndicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- Neraca transaksi berjalan, porsi terhadap PDBIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- Cadangan devisa dalam bulan imporIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Utang luar negeri jangka pendek, porsi terhadap cadangan devisaIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Posisi utang luar negeri, porsi terhadap PNBIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- Indeks risiko ketergantungan eksternalDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- Kerapuhan makrofinansial dan strukturalPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- ahli
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Ketidakpastian
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap eksporIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
Volatilitas nilai tukar perdagangan (10 tahun)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
Indeks kompleksitas ekonomiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor brutoIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritimIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Indikator | Unit | Bukti | Sumber | Proporsi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Neraca transaksi berjalan, porsi terhadap PDBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
Cadangan devisa dalam bulan imporIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Utang luar negeri jangka pendek, porsi terhadap cadangan devisaIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Posisi utang luar negeri, porsi terhadap PNBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | Indikator |
|---|---|
| Perdagangan | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| Investasi | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
| Indikator | Domain | Sub-domain | Komponen | Unit | Tingkat | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Perdagangan | keterpaparan | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap eksporIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Perdagangan | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Perdagangan | keterpaparan | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Perdagangan | keterpaparan | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Barang manufaktur, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | kapasitas adaptif | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Indeks kompleksitas ekonomiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | kapasitas adaptif | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor brutoIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | keterpaparan | % | COUNTRY | |
Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritimIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | keterpaparan | % | COUNTRY | |
Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Investasi | kapasitas penanggulangan | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edisi sebelumnya
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Komposit terkait
- –
- Skor keterkaitan S
- –
- Pulse, minggu terakhir
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Sampel
- 1,000
Belum ada nilai yang diterbitkan. Edisi pertama menggambar riwayat di sini dengan pita interval dan batas kelas.
Country values
- Ubin peta
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Kunci observasi
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Di seluruh Nexus
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · Food Nexus · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics.
Kutip dan gunakan kembali
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.
Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.
Lembaga dan sumber
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Setiap nilai memuat atribusi sumbernya, yang tetap memiliki lisensinya masing-masing. Nama-nama eksternal dikutip semata-mata untuk interoperabilitas. Teks yang disusun Nexus direncanakan berlisensi CC BY 4.0 saat dirilis.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.