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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Indeks risiko ketergantungan eksternal

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Ketidakpastian

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Struktur

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Cakupan

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Konstruksi

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Grafik
01Indikator
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Komposit
100%
Indeks
  1. Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap ekspor
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditas
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Volatilitas nilai tukar perdagangan (10 tahun)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Indeks kompleksitas ekonomi
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barang
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barang
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritis
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor bruto
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadi
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritim
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Neraca transaksi berjalan, porsi terhadap PDB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. Cadangan devisa dalam bulan impor
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Utang luar negeri jangka pendek, porsi terhadap cadangan devisa
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Posisi utang luar negeri, porsi terhadap PNB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. Indeks risiko ketergantungan eksternal
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Kerapuhan makrofinansial dan struktural
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
berjalan di peramban Anda
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
ahli
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Ketidakpastian
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Sangat rendah0.0 hingga < 2.0
Rendah2.0 hingga < 3.5
Sedang3.5 hingga < 5.0
Tinggi5.0 hingga < 6.5
Sangat tinggi6.5 hingga 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap eksporIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Volatilitas nilai tukar perdagangan (10 tahun)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Indeks kompleksitas ekonomiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor brutoIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritimIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Neraca transaksi berjalan, porsi terhadap PDBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
Cadangan devisa dalam bulan imporIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Utang luar negeri jangka pendek, porsi terhadap cadangan devisaIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Posisi utang luar negeri, porsi terhadap PNBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Domain

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainIndikator
Perdagangan4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Investasi1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Indikator

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndikatorDomainSub-domainKomponenUnitTingkatCrosswalks
Keterbukaan perdagangan (ekspor ditambah impor, porsi terhadap PDB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOPerdaganganketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Penerimaan pariwisata internasional, porsi terhadap eksporIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOPerdaganganvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Remitansi perorangan yang diterima, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOPerdaganganketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Bantuan pembangunan resmi neto yang diterima, porsi terhadap PNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOPerdaganganketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Konsentrasi produk ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pasar ekspor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Ketergantungan pada ekspor komoditasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Barang manufaktur, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationkapasitas adaptif%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rente sumber daya alam, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Indeks kompleksitas ekonomiIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationkapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRY
Impor pangan, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Impor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap impor barangIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Ketergantungan impor neto untuk mineral kritisIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Konsentrasi asal impor (HHI ternormalisasi)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Porsi nilai tambah asing dalam ekspor brutoIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRY
Konsentrasi pemasok impor barang setengah jadiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Perdagangan laut yang terpapar titik sempit maritimIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRY
Arus masuk neto investasi asing langsung, porsi terhadap PDBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOInvestasikapasitas penanggulangan%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Kuotasi

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Edisi sebelumnya
–
Range since 2016
–
Komposit terkait
–
Skor keterkaitan S
–
Pulse, minggu terakhir
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sampel
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

Belum ada nilai yang diterbitkan. Edisi pertama menggambar riwayat di sini dengan pita interval dan batas kelas.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Belum ada pergerakan. Perubahan sejak edisi sebelumnya dicantumkan di sini mulai edisi kedua, beserta indikator yang mendorongnya.
08Nilai

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Memuat peta
AndorraAntigua dan BarbudaBahrainBarbadosKomoroTanjung VerdeDominikaMikronesiaGrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts dan NevisSaint LuciaLiechtensteinMonakoMaladewaKepulauan MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSao Tome dan PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluVatikanSaint Vincent dan GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Ubin peta
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Kunci observasi
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Di seluruh Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.