Indice di rischio di dipendenza esterna
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
5 components
22 leaf indicators
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
- Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIndicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIndicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIndicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Volatilità delle ragioni di scambio (10 anni)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- Indice di complessità economicaIndicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIndicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIndicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIndicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIndicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIndicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIndicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- Saldo delle partite correnti, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- Riserve in mesi di importazioniIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Debito estero a breve termine, quota delle riserveIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Stock di debito estero, quota del RNLIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- Indice di rischio di dipendenza esternaDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- Fragilità macrofinanziaria e strutturalePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- esperto
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertezza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
Volatilità delle ragioni di scambio (10 anni)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
Indice di complessità economicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Saldo delle partite correnti, quota del PILIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
Riserve in mesi di importazioniIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Debito estero a breve termine, quota delle riserveIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Stock di debito estero, quota del RNLIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | Indicatori |
|---|---|
| Commercio | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| Investimento | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Commercio | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Commercio | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Commercio | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Commercio | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Manufatti, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Indice di complessità economicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Investimento | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edizione precedente
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composito accoppiato
- –
- Punteggio di accoppiamento S
- –
- Pulse, ultima settimana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metodo
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Estrazioni
- 1,000
Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.
Country values
- Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
In tutto il Nexus
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · Food Nexus · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics.
Cita e riutilizza
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.