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Il Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Indice di rischio di dipendenza esterna

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertezza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Struttura

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Copertura

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Grafo
01Indicatori
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilastro
05Composito
100%
Indice
  1. Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioni
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PIL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PIL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie prime
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PIL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Volatilità delle ragioni di scambio (10 anni)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Indice di complessità economica
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merci
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merci
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali critici
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lorde
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importati
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimi
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Saldo delle partite correnti, quota del PIL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. Riserve in mesi di importazioni
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Debito estero a breve termine, quota delle riserve
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Stock di debito estero, quota del RNL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. Indice di rischio di dipendenza esterna
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Fragilità macrofinanziaria e strutturale
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metodo

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
esperto
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Incertezza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
04Components

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Volatilità delle ragioni di scambio (10 anni)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Indice di complessità economicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Saldo delle partite correnti, quota del PILIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
Riserve in mesi di importazioniIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Debito estero a breve termine, quota delle riserveIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Stock di debito estero, quota del RNLIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Dominio

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainIndicatori
Commercio4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Investimento1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Indicatori

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicatoreDominioSub-domainComponenteUnitàLivelliCrosswalks
Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOCommercioexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOCommerciovulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOCommercioexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOCommercioexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufatti, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Indice di complessità economicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOInvestimentocoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Quotazione

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Edizione precedente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composito accoppiato
–
Punteggio di accoppiamento S
–
Pulse, ultima settimana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metodo
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Estrazioni
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Nessuna variazione per ora. Dalla seconda edizione in poi, le variazioni rispetto all’edizione precedente sono elencate qui, insieme agli indicatori che le hanno determinate.
08Valori

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Caricamento della mappa
AndorraAntigua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoreCapo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Stati Federati di)GrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts e NevisSanta LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaldiveIsole MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingaporeSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSanta SedeSaint Vincent e GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11In tutto il Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.