Semiconduttori
Concentrazione dell’offerta di semiconduttori, colli di bottiglia nella fabbricazione, dipendenza da materiali e attrezzature ed esposizione ai controlli sulle esportazioni.
3
External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.
84
3 index domains
36
Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.
86
Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
- Which economies depend on single-source chips?
- How would a fabrication outage propagate?
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
How the Semiconductors index is built
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Rischio di dipendenza esternaDomain index · IDX · ECOWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
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Fragilità delle infrastruttureDomain index · IDX · INFIndex of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
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Rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Semiconductors indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-06Concentrazione dell’offerta di semiconduttori, colli di bottiglia nella fabbricazione, dipendenza da materiali e attrezzature ed esposizione ai controlli sulle esportazioni.
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Domain indices in this series
| Indice | Valore | Variazione | Variazione % | Intervallo al 90% | Classe · probabilità | Tendenza | Intervallo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rischio di dipendenza esternaNXS-GRX · ECO |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Fragilità delle infrastruttureNXS-GRX · INF |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.
84 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Esportazioni di beni e servizi, dollari USA correntiIND.MAC.external.exports.usd |
MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
Volatilità delle ragioni di scambio (10 anni)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility |
MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Entrate da risorse naturali, quota delle entrate delle amministrazioni pubblicheIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share |
FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Apertura commerciale (esportazioni più importazioni, quota del PIL)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp |
ECO | Commercio | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Entrate dal turismo internazionale, quota delle esportazioniIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports |
ECO | Commercio | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Rimesse personali ricevute, quota del PILIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | Commercio | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Aiuto pubblico allo sviluppo netto ricevuto, quota del RNLIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni |
ECO | Commercio | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Concentrazione dei prodotti esportati (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei mercati di esportazione (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Dipendenza dalle esportazioni di materie primeIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Manufatti, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Indice di complessità economicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Importazioni alimentari, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Importazioni di combustibili, quota delle importazioni di merciIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dell'origine delle importazioni (HHI normalizzato)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Quota di valore aggiunto estero nelle esportazioni lordeIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di beni intermedi importatiIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Commercio marittimo esposto ai colli di bottiglia marittimiIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Afflussi netti di investimenti diretti esteri, quota del PILIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp |
ECO | Investimento | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Standard di progetto della protezione dalle alluvioniIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard |
HAZ | Flood | coping capacity | a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Superficie edificataIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area |
HAZ | Esposizione | context | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Area edificata in zone ad alto pericoloIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed |
HAZ | Esposizione | exposure | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Densità stradaleIND.ENV.land.road_density |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | km/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Rifiuti solidi urbani gestiti in impianti controllatiIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share |
ENV | Pollution and waste | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW |
PIL in settori fortemente dipendenti dalla natura, quotaIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
Efficienza nell'uso dell'acquaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency |
WAT | Stress idrico | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
Flussi di acque reflue trattati in modo sicuroIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share |
WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
PIL in attività dipendenti dai GNSS, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
Servizi critici che dipendono da satelliti senza sistemi di riserva, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Rete ad alta tensione in zone ad alto pericolo geoelettrico, quotaIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Tempo di percorrenza fino alla struttura sanitaria più vicinaIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Indice di dipendenza dalle importazioni di cerealiIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Spesa per importazioni alimentari, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports |
FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PILIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Popolazione urbana, quota del totaleIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
Crescita della popolazione urbanaIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
Popolazione urbana che vive in baraccopoliIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di greggio e prodotti petroliferi importatiIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di gas naturale importatoIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di carbone importatoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Interruzioni di corrente subite dalle imprese in un mese tipicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
Durata media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Frequenza media delle interruzioni del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Quota del principale fornitore nelle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Popolazione rurale entro 2 km da una strada percorribile in ogni stagioneIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.1.1 |
Prestazioni logisticheIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
Connettività del trasporto marittimo di linea rispetto alla frontieraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
Passeggeri aerei trasportati pro capiteIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {passengers}/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR |
Popolazione urbana con comodo accesso al trasporto pubblicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Rete stradale e ferroviaria in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share |
INF | Transport | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Persone che utilizzano InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
Popolazione coperta da una rete mobile, per tecnologiaIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.c.1 |
Abbonamenti alla banda larga fissa per 100 abitantiIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | /10*2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
Ridondanza delle rotte di connettività internazionaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Ore di interruzione di Internet su scala nazionaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
Resilienza della rete elettricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Resilienza della rete di approvvigionamento idricoIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Strutture critiche con alimentazione di riserva per 72 oreIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Infrastrutture di approvvigionamento idrico in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Impianti di generazione e rete elettrica in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Strutture salvavita in zone ad alto pericolo, quotaIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Divario di investimenti infrastrutturali, quota del PILIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp |
INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours |
INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a |
CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Unità di infrastrutture critiche danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
Strutture sanitarie danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
Strutture scolastiche danneggiate o distrutte da disastriIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
Interruzioni dei servizi di base attribuite a disastriIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-5 |
Perdita economica diretta alle infrastrutture critiche, quota del PILIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp |
INF | Service disruption | impact | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
Incidenti informatici che interrompono servizi criticiIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Valore aggiunto dei servizi TIC, quota del PILIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | Intelligenza artificiale | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | Intelligenza artificiale | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | Biotecnologie | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Popolazione entro 15 minuti dai servizi di emergenzaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
| Famiglia | Dominio | Pericoli | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotecnologie e biologia sintetica | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Tecnologie di intervento climatico | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Fault shaking and rupture | Terra solida | Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm | 7 |
| Eruption products and unrest | Terra solida | Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … | 12 |
| Slope failure and mass movement | Terra solida | Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … | 9 |
| Ground deformation and subsidence | Terra solida | Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence | 7 |
| Erosion and sediment movement | Terra solida | Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation | 7 |
| Seabed and deep-sea hazards | Terra solida | Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance | 5 |
| Organised and collective violence | Società, conflitti ed economia | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Società, conflitti ed economia | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Società, conflitti ed economia | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Società, conflitti ed economia | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Società, conflitti ed economia | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Società, conflitti ed economia | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Società, conflitti ed economia | Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Società, conflitti ed economia | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Società, conflitti ed economia | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Società, conflitti ed economia | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Società, conflitti ed economia | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Società, conflitti ed economia | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Società, conflitti ed economia | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Società, conflitti ed economia | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
Mercati, commercio e catene di approvvigionamento
Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …
Cyber, IA e tecnologie di frontiera
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
Who uses it
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-06- Edition status
- prevista
- Oggetto
- Named by Nexus Reports
Cita e riutilizza
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.