Semiconductores
Concentración del suministro de semiconductores, puntos de estrangulamiento de la fabricación, dependencia de materiales y equipos y exposición a controles a la exportación.
3
External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.
84
3 index domains
36
Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.
86
Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
- Which economies depend on single-source chips?
- How would a fabrication outage propagate?
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
How the Semiconductors index is built
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Riesgo de dependencia externaDomain index · IDX · ECOWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
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Fragilidad de la infraestructuraDomain index · IDX · INFIndex of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
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Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Semiconductors indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-06Concentración del suministro de semiconductores, puntos de estrangulamiento de la fabricación, dependencia de materiales y equipos y exposición a controles a la exportación.
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Domain indices in this series
| Índice | Valor | Variación | Variación % | Intervalo del 90 % | Clase · probabilidad | Tendencia | Rango |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Riesgo de dependencia externaNXS-GRX · ECO |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Fragilidad de la infraestructuraNXS-GRX · INF |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.
84 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exportaciones de bienes y servicios, dólares estadounidenses corrientesIND.MAC.external.exports.usd |
MAC | External balance and reserves | context | [USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD |
Volatilidad de la relación de intercambio (10 años)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility |
MAC | External balance and reserves | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Ingresos por recursos naturales, porcentaje de los ingresos del gobierno generalIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share |
FIS | Revenue | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Apertura comercial (exportaciones más importaciones, porcentaje del PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp |
ECO | Comercio | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Ingresos por turismo internacional, porcentaje de las exportacionesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports |
ECO | Comercio | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Remesas personales recibidas, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp |
ECO | Comercio | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Asistencia oficial para el desarrollo neta recibida, porcentaje del INBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni |
ECO | Comercio | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Concentración de productos de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de mercados de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Dependencia de las exportaciones de materias primasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Manufacturas, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Rentas de los recursos naturales, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Índice de complejidad económicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity |
ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Importaciones de alimentos, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración del origen de las importaciones (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Proporción de valor añadido extranjero en las exportaciones brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de las importaciones de bienes intermediosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Comercio marítimo expuesto a puntos de estrangulamiento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure |
ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Entradas netas de inversión extranjera directa, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp |
ECO | Inversión | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
Exportaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Nivel de diseño de la protección contra inundacionesIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard |
HAZ | Flood | coping capacity | a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Superficie edificadaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area |
HAZ | Exposición | context | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Superficie edificada en zonas de alta amenazaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed |
HAZ | Exposición | exposure | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Densidad de carreterasIND.ENV.land.road_density |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | km/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Residuos sólidos municipales gestionados en instalaciones controladasIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share |
ENV | Pollution and waste | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW |
PIB en sectores muy dependientes de la naturaleza, proporciónIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
Eficiencia en el uso del aguaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency |
WAT | Estrés hídrico | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
Aguas residuales tratadas de forma seguraIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share |
WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
PIB en actividades dependientes de GNSS, proporciónIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
Servicios críticos que dependen de satélites sin respaldo, proporciónIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Red de alta tensión en zonas de alta amenaza geoeléctrica, proporciónIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Tiempo de viaje hasta el centro de salud más cercanoIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time |
HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Tasa de dependencia de las importaciones de cerealesIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency |
FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Factura de importación de alimentos, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports |
FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Valor añadido de la agricultura, la silvicultura y la pesca, porcentaje del PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Población urbana, porcentaje del totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | context | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS |
Crecimiento de la población urbanaIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW |
Población urbana que vive en barrios marginalesIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share |
DEM | Urbanisation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1 |
Puntuación del entorno empresarial (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Población rural a menos de 2 km de una carretera transitable todo el añoIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.1.1 |
Desempeño logísticoIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ |
Conectividad del transporte marítimo de línea respecto de la fronteraIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ |
Pasajeros aéreos transportados per cápitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | {passengers}/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR |
Población urbana con acceso conveniente al transporte públicoIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access |
INF | Transport | coping capacity | % |
CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY | SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Red vial y ferroviaria en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share |
INF | Transport | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Personas que usan InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
Población cubierta por una red móvil, por tecnologíaIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 9.c.1 |
Suscripciones de banda ancha fija por cada 100 habitantesIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | /10*2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2 |
Redundancia de rutas de conectividad internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Horas de interrupción de Internet a escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
Resiliencia de la red eléctricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Resiliencia de la red de abastecimiento de aguaIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Instalaciones críticas con energía de respaldo para 72 horasIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Activos de abastecimiento de agua en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Activos de generación y red eléctrica en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Instalaciones vitales en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Brecha de inversión en infraestructura, porcentaje del PIBIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp |
INF | Utilities | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours |
INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a |
CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Unidades de infraestructura crítica dañadas o destruidas por desastresIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
Centros de salud dañados o destruidos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
Centros educativos dañados o destruidos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-3 |
Interrupciones de servicios básicos atribuidas a desastresIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions |
INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-5 |
Pérdidas económicas directas en infraestructura crítica, porcentaje del PIBIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp |
INF | Service disruption | impact | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
Ciberincidentes que interrumpen servicios críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Valor añadido de los servicios TIC, porcentaje del PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
Gasto interno bruto en I+D, porcentaje del PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Investigadores por millón de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Exportaciones de alta tecnología, porcentaje de las exportaciones de manufacturasIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de semiconductoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de infraestructura en la nubeIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Capacidad de cómputo de IA bajo control extranjero o de un único proveedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | Inteligencia artificial | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de modelos fundacionalesIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | Inteligencia artificial | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Supervisión de la bioseguridad y la bioprotección de los laboratorios de alta contenciónIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | Biotecnología | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Población a menos de 15 minutos de los servicios de emergenciaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access |
CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
| Familia | Dominio | Amenazas | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotecnología y biología sintética | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Tecnologías de intervención climática | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Fault shaking and rupture | Tierra sólida | Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm | 7 |
| Eruption products and unrest | Tierra sólida | Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … | 12 |
| Slope failure and mass movement | Tierra sólida | Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … | 9 |
| Ground deformation and subsidence | Tierra sólida | Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence | 7 |
| Erosion and sediment movement | Tierra sólida | Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation | 7 |
| Seabed and deep-sea hazards | Tierra sólida | Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance | 5 |
| Organised and collective violence | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence | 5 |
| Conflict-induced harm | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial | 4 |
| Humanitarian crises | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption | 6 |
| Crowd and collective behaviour | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster | 3 |
| Economic shocks and governance failure | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty | 8 |
| Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … | 15 |
| Governance and institutional failure | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … | 18 |
| Financial-system fragility | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … | 12 |
| Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … | 12 |
| Labour and technology transition | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock | 7 |
| Population structure and movement | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … | 12 |
| Social cohesion and atrocity risk | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … | 9 |
| Organised crime and illicit economies | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … | 12 |
| Cultural heritage loss | Sociedad, conflicto y economía | Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation | 7 |
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
Mercados, comercio y cadenas de suministro
Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …
Ciber, IA y tecnologías de frontera
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
Who uses it
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors
Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-06- Edition status
- prevista
- Asunto
- Named by Nexus Reports
Citar y reutilizar
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.