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Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · Exponential technology series

Semi-conducteurs

Concentration de l’approvisionnement en semi-conducteurs, points d’étranglement de la fabrication, dépendance aux matériaux et équipements et exposition aux contrôles à l’exportation.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indices de domaine

3

External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.

Indicateurs

84

3 index domains

Hazard families

36

Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.

Méthodes

86

Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
indices de domaine
84
indicators in scope
3
domaines d'aléas
4
client groups

01Périmètre

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
  2. Which economies depend on single-source chips?
  3. How would a fabrication outage propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Semiconductors index is built

Graph7 nodes
Graphe
01Indices de domaine
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Liste
  1. Risque de dépendance extérieure

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. Fragilité des infrastructures

    Domain index · IDX · INF
    Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
  3. Risque de concentration technologique

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Semiconductors index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-06
    Concentration de l’approvisionnement en semi-conducteurs, points d’étranglement de la fabrication, dépendance aux matériaux et équipements et exposition aux contrôles à l’exportation.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Semiconductors index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Indice Valeur Variation Variation % Intervalle à 90 % Classe · probabilité Tendance Plage
Risque de dépendance extérieureNXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
Fragilité des infrastructuresNXS-GRX · INF – – – – –
Risque de concentration technologiqueNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.

04Indicateurs

84 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicateur Domaine Sub-domain Composant Unité Niveaux Crosswalks
Exportations de biens et services, dollars US courantsIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatilité des termes de l'échange (10 ans)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Recettes tirées des ressources naturelles, part des recettes des administrations publiquesIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Ouverture commerciale (exportations plus importations, part du PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Commerce exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Recettes du tourisme international, part des exportationsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Commerce vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Envois de fonds personnels reçus, part du PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Commerce exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Aide publique au développement nette reçue, part du RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Commerce exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentration des produits exportés (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des marchés d'exportation (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Dépendance aux exportations de produits de baseIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Produits manufacturés, part des exportations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rentes des ressources naturelles, part du PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Indice de complexité économiqueIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importations alimentaires, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importations de carburants, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentration des origines des importations (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Part de la valeur ajoutée étrangère dans les exportations brutesIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de biens intermédiaires importésIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Commerce maritime exposé aux points d'étranglement maritimesIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Entrées nettes d'investissements directs étrangers, part du PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Investissement coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Exportations de carburants, part des exportations de marchandisesIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Norme de conception de la protection contre les inondationsIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Surface bâtieIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Exposition context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Surface bâtie en zones d'aléa élevéIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Exposition exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Densité routièreIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Déchets solides municipaux gérés dans des installations contrôléesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
PIB des secteurs fortement dépendants de la nature, partIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Efficacité de l'utilisation de l'eauIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Stress hydrique adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
Eaux usées traitées en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
PIB des activités dépendantes du GNSS, partIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Services critiques reposant sur des satellites sans secours, partIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Réseau haute tension en zones d'aléa géoélectrique élevé, partIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Temps de trajet jusqu'à l'établissement de santé le plus procheIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Taux de dépendance aux importations de céréalesIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Facture des importations alimentaires, part des exportations de marchandisesIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valeur ajoutée de l'agriculture, de la sylviculture et de la pêche, part du PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Population urbaine, part du totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Croissance de la population urbaineIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Population urbaine vivant dans des bidonvillesIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Score de l'environnement des affaires (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de pétrole brut et de produits pétroliers importésIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de gaz naturel importéIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de charbon importéIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Coupures de courant subies par les entreprises au cours d'un mois typeIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Durée moyenne des interruptions du réseau (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Fréquence moyenne des interruptions du réseau (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Part du premier fournisseur dans les importations de minerais critiquesIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Population rurale à moins de 2 km d'une route praticable en toute saisonIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Performance logistiqueIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Connectivité des transports maritimes réguliers par rapport à la frontièreIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Passagers aériens transportés par habitantIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Population urbaine ayant un accès pratique aux transports publicsIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Réseau routier et ferroviaire en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Personnes utilisant InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Population couverte par un réseau mobile, par technologieIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Abonnements au haut débit fixe pour 100 habitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
Redondance des routes de connectivité internationaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Heures de perturbation d'Internet à l'échelle nationaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Résilience du réseau électriqueIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Résilience du réseau d'approvisionnement en eauIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Installations critiques disposant d'une alimentation de secours de 72 heuresIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Actifs d'approvisionnement en eau en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Actifs de production et de réseau électriques en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Installations vitales en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Déficit d'investissement dans les infrastructures, part du PIBIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Unités d'infrastructures critiques endommagées ou détruites par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Établissements de santé endommagés ou détruits par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Établissements d'enseignement endommagés ou détruits par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Perturbations des services de base imputées aux catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Pertes économiques directes subies par les infrastructures critiques, part du PIBIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Cyberincidents perturbant des services critiquesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valeur ajoutée des services TIC, part du PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Population à moins de 15 minutes des services d'urgenceIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Aléas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SolidFrontièreSociété286HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 36 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famille Domaine Aléas Count
AI system failure and misalignment Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnologie et biologie de synthèse Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Technologies d’intervention climatique Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Technologies de pointe et exponentielles 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Fault shaking and rupture Terre solide Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm 7
Eruption products and unrest Terre solide Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … 12
Slope failure and mass movement Terre solide Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … 9
Ground deformation and subsidence Terre solide Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence 7
Erosion and sediment movement Terre solide Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation 7
Seabed and deep-sea hazards Terre solide Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance 5
Organised and collective violence Société, conflits et économie Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Société, conflits et économie Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Société, conflits et économie Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Société, conflits et économie Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Société, conflits et économie Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Société, conflits et économie Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Société, conflits et économie Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Société, conflits et économie Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Société, conflits et économie Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Société, conflits et économie Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Société, conflits et économie Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Société, conflits et économie Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Société, conflits et économie Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Société, conflits et économie Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Méthodes

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

Marchés, commerce et chaînes d'approvisionnement

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

56 methods

Cyber, IA et technologies de pointe

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08Rapports

Rapports Nexus

Edition code
XT-06
Edition status
prévue
Objet
Named by Nexus Reports

Rapports Nexus

09Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Semiconductors series (GRX-SER-XT-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000093.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profils de pays Toutes les séries

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.