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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · Exponential technology series

سیمی کنڈکٹرز

سیمی کنڈکٹر کی رسد کا ارتکاز، تیاری کے تنگ مقامات، مواد اور آلات پر انحصار اور برآمدی کنٹرول کی زد۔

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

3

External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.

اشاریے

84

3 index domains

Hazard families

36

Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.

Methods

86

Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
domain indices
84
indicators in scope
3
hazard domains
4
client groups

01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
  2. Which economies depend on single-source chips?
  3. How would a fabrication outage propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Semiconductors index is built

Graph7 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings

100%
فہرست
  1. External dependence risk

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. Infrastructure fragility

    Domain index · IDX · INF
    Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
  3. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Semiconductors index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-06
    سیمی کنڈکٹر کی رسد کا ارتکاز، تیاری کے تنگ مقامات، مواد اور آلات پر انحصار اور برآمدی کنٹرول کی زد۔
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Semiconductors index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
اشاریہ قدر تبدیلی Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
Infrastructure fragilityNXS-GRX · INF – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.

04اشاریے

84 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Levels Crosswalks
Exports of goods and services, current US dollarsIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Volatility of the terms of trade (10-year)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Natural-resource revenue, share of general government revenueIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Trade openness (exports plus imports, share of GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Trade exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
International tourism receipts, share of exportsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Trade vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Personal remittances received, share of GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Trade exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Net official development assistance received, share of GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Trade exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Export product concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Export market concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Commodity export dependenceIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Manufactures, share of merchandise exportsIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Economic complexity indexIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Food imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Import origin concentration (normalised HHI)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Foreign value added share of gross exportsIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Supplier concentration of intermediate-goods importsIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Foreign direct investment net inflows, share of GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Investment coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Flood protection design standardIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Built-up surface areaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ زد context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Built-up area in high-hazard zonesIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ زد exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Road densityIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Municipal solid waste managed in controlled facilitiesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Water-use efficiencyIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Water stress adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Critical services relying on satellites without backup, shareIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Travel time to the nearest health facilityIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Cereal import dependency ratioIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Food import bill, share of merchandise exportsIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Urban population, share of totalIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Urban population growthIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Rural population within 2 km of an all-season roadIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Logistics performanceIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Liner shipping connectivity relative to the frontierIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Air passengers carried per capitaIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Road and rail network in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Population covered by a mobile network, by technologyIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitantsIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Infrastructure investment gap, share of GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Disruptions to basic services attributed to disastersIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC مصنوعی ذہانت vulnerability % COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC مصنوعی ذہانت vulnerability % COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Population within 15 minutes of emergency servicesIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05خطرات

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SolidFrontierمعاشرہ286HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 36 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
خاندان Domain خطرات Count
AI system failure and misalignment جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
موسمیاتی مداخلت کی ٹیکنالوجیاں جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets جدید ترین اور تیزی سے بڑھتی ٹیکنالوجی Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Fault shaking and rupture ٹھوس زمین Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm 7
Eruption products and unrest ٹھوس زمین Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … 12
Slope failure and mass movement ٹھوس زمین Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … 9
Ground deformation and subsidence ٹھوس زمین Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence 7
Erosion and sediment movement ٹھوس زمین Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation 7
Seabed and deep-sea hazards ٹھوس زمین Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance 5
Organised and collective violence معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss معاشرہ، تنازع اور معیشت Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

Markets, trade and supply chains

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

56 methods

Cyber, AI and frontier technology

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08رپورٹیں

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-06
Edition status
منصوبہ بند
Subject
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Semiconductors series (GRX-SER-XT-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000093.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

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حیثیت

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.