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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · Exponential technology series

Nîvgihandî

Semiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-06Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-06 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Îndeksên waran

3

External dependence risk · Infrastructure fragility · Technology concentration risk.

Nîşander

84

3 index domains

Hazard families

36

Frontier and exponential technology · Solid Earth · Society, conflict and economy.

Rêbaz

86

Markets, trade and supply chains · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
domain indices
84
indicators in scope
3
hazard domains
4
client groups

01Çarçove

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is fabrication capacity concentrated?
  2. Which economies depend on single-source chips?
  3. How would a fabrication outage propagate?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Semiconductors index is built

Graph7 nodes
Grafîk
01Îndeksên waran
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Lîste
  1. External dependence risk

    Domain index · IDX · ECO
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  2. Infrastructure fragility

    Domain index · IDX · INF
    Index of transport and digital connectivity deficits, utility fragility, energy supply unreliability and realised disruption impact on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning more fragile.
  3. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Semiconductors index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-06
    Semiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Îndeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-06 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Semiconductors index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Navnîşan Nirx Guhertin Guhertin % 90% interval Class · probability Meyl Navber
External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO – – – – –
Infrastructure fragilityNXS-GRX · INF – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Economic structure and trade, Infrastructure.

04Nîşander

84 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
INF · 24ECO · 18TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Nîşander Qad Sub-domain Component Yekîne Ast Crosswalks
Hinardekirina mal û xizmetan, dolarên DYA yên heyîIND.MAC.external.exports.usd MAC External balance and reserves context [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.GNFS.CD WB_WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.CD
Guhêrbariya mercên bazirganiyê (10 salî)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility MAC External balance and reserves vulnerability % COUNTRY
Dahata çavkaniyên xwezayî, para dahata hikûmeta giştîIND.FIS.revenue.resource_revenue_share FIS Revenue vulnerability % COUNTRY
Vekirîbûna bazirganiyê (hinardekirin û îthalat, para GDP)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp ECO Bazirganî exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Dahatên tûrîzma navneteweyî, para hinardekirinêIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports ECO Bazirganî vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Pereyên şandî yên kesane yên wergirtî, para GDPIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp ECO Bazirganî exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Alîkariya fermî ya net a pêşketinê ya wergirtî, para GNIIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni ECO Bazirganî exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Komkirina berhemên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina bazarên hinardekirinê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Girêdayîbûna bi hinardekirina kelûmelên xavIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Berhemên çêkirî, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Îndeksa tevlîheviya aborîIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity ECO Export and import concentration adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY
Îthalata xwarinê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Îthalata sotemeniyê, para îthalata kelûmelanIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Komkirina eslê îthalatê (HHI ya normalîzekirî)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Para nirxa zêdekirî ya biyanî di hinardekirina gelemperî deIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkeran di îthalata kelûmelên navîn deIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration ECO Supply-chain exposure vulnerability % COUNTRY
Bazirganiya deryayî ya li ber tengavên deryayîIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure ECO Supply-chain exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Hatina net a veberhênana biyanî ya rasterast, para GDPIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp ECO Veberhênan coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
Hinardekirina sotemeniyê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Standarda sêwirandina parastina ji lehiyêIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard HAZ Flood coping capacity a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Rûerda avakirîIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area HAZ Rûbirûbûn context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Rûerda avakirî li herêmên bi metirsiya bilindIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed HAZ Rûbirûbûn exposure km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Çirbûna rêyanIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Bermahiyên hişk ên şaredariyê ku di saziyên kontrolkirî de têne birêvebirinIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
GDP ya di sektorên pir girêdayî xwezayê de, paraIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Kêrhatîbûna bikaranîna avêIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Water stress adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
Herikînên ava qirêj ên bi ewlehî paqijkirîIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
GDP ya di çalakiyên girêdayî GNSS de, paraIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102
Xizmetên girîng ên bê paşgir bi satelaytan ve girêdayî, paraIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Tora voltaja bilind li herêmên bi metirsiya geoelektrîkî ya bilind, paraIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Dema rêwîtiyê heta saziya tenduristiyê ya herî nêzîkIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna bi îthalata dexlêIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency FOO Availability vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Fatûreya îthalata xwarinê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports FOO Food prices vulnerability % COUNTRY FAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Nifûsa bajarî, para tevahiyêIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_share DEM Urbanisation context % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
Mezinbûna nifûsa bajarîIND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
Nifûsa bajarî ya li taxên xizan dijîIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Puana jîngeha karsaziyê (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata petrola xav û berhemên wêIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata gaza xwezayîIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata komirêIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Qutbûnên elektrîkê yên ku pargîdanî di mehekê asayî de dijînIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Navgîniya dirêjahiya qutbûnê ya pergalê (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Navgîniya pirbûna qutbûnê ya pergalê (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata mîneralên girîngIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Para dabînkerê herî mezin ê yekane di îthalata mîneralên girîng deIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Nifûsa gundî ya di nav 2 km ji rêyeke çar demsalan deIND.INF.transport.rural_road_access INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.1.1
Performansa lojîstîkêIND.INF.transport.logistics_performance INF Transport coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ
Girêdana keştiyên xetê li gorî asta herî pêşketîIND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity INF Transport coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.SHP.GCNW.XQ
Rêwiyên hewayî yên hatine veguhestin ji bo her kesîIND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc INF Transport coping capacity {passengers}/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI IS.AIR.PSGR
Nifûsa bajarî ya bi gihîştina hêsan a veguhestina giştîIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Tora rê û rêhesinê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share INF Transport exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Kesên ku Înternetê bi kar tîninIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Nifûsa ku tora mobîl pê digire, li gorî teknolojiyêIND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 9.c.1
Abonetiyên broadbanda sabît ji her 100 niştecîhîIND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband INF Digital connectivity coping capacity /10*2 COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 17.6.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.BBND.P2
Zêdeyiya rêyên girêdana navneteweyîIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Saetên qutbûna înternetê ya li asta neteweyîIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Berxwedana tora elektrîkêIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Berxwedana tora dabînkirina avêIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Saziyên girîng bi hêza paşgir a 72 saetîIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Malûmilkên dabînkirina avê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Malûmilkên hilberîna elektrîkê û torê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Saziyên xetên jiyanê li herêmên bi metirsiya bilind, paraIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Valahiya veberhênana binesaziyê, para GDPIND.INF.utilities.infrastructure_investment_gap.gdp INF Utilities vulnerability % COUNTRY
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Yekîneyên binesaziya girîng ên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2
Saziyên tenduristiyê yên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Saziyên perwerdeyê yên ji karesatan zirar dîtî an wêranbûyîIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Qutbûnên xizmetên bingehîn ên bi karesatan ve girêdayîIND.INF.disruption.basic_service_disruptions INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-5
Windabûna aborî ya rasterast a binesaziya girîng, para GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp INF Service disruption impact % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI C-5
Bûyerên sîber ên ku xizmetên girîng asteng dikinIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Nirxa zêdekirî ya xizmetên ICT, para GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Lêçûnên navxweyî yên gelemperî li ser R&D, para GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Lêkoler ji her milyon niştecîhîIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Hinardekirina teknolojiya bilind, para hinardekirina berhemên çêkirîIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata nîvguheykeranIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên binesaziya ewrIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasîteya hesabkirina AI ya di bin kontrola biyanî an yek pêşkêşkerî deIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên modelên bingehînIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Çavdêriya ewlehiya bîyolojîk û parastina bîyolojîk a laboratuwarên astengiya bilindIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Nifûsa di nav 15 deqeyan ji xizmetên awarte deIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Metirsî

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
SolidPêşengCivak286HAZARDS
3 hazard domains (inner ring) and 36 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Malbat Qad Metirsî Count
AI system failure and misalignment Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknolojiyên destwerdana avhewayê Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Fault shaking and rupture Erdê hişk Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm 7
Eruption products and unrest Erdê hişk Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … 12
Slope failure and mass movement Erdê hişk Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … 9
Ground deformation and subsidence Erdê hişk Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence 7
Erosion and sediment movement Erdê hişk Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation 7
Seabed and deep-sea hazards Erdê hişk Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance 5
Organised and collective violence Civak, nakokî û aborî Interstate war, Internal armed conflict, Civil unrest, Terrorist attack, Communal and targeted violence 5
Conflict-induced harm Civak, nakokî û aborî Explosive remnants and landmines, Conflict-related environmental damage, Attacks on critical infrastructure, Siege and humanitarian access denial 4
Humanitarian crises Civak, nakokî û aborî Mass displacement, Acute food crisis, Famine, Water and resource conflict, Chronic malnutrition, Education disruption 6
Crowd and collective behaviour Civak, nakokî û aborî Crowd crush, Panic buying and hoarding, Self-harm and suicide cluster 3
Economic shocks and governance failure Civak, nakokî û aborî Financial market and banking shock, Sovereign debt crisis, Currency crisis, Commodity price shock, Governance breakdown, Hyperinflation, Housing affordability and insecurity crisis, Energy poverty 8
Geopolitical confrontation and strategic weapons Civak, nakokî û aborî Great-power war, Nuclear war, Nuclear winter, Nuclear escalation crisis, Accidental or unauthorised nuclear launch, Nuclear weapons proliferation, High-altitude electromagnetic pulse, Military threat to a nuclear facility … 15
Governance and institutional failure Civak, nakokî û aborî Coup d’etat, Democratic backsliding, Authoritarian lock-in, Institutional capture, Grand corruption shock, Rule-of-law breakdown, Mass surveillance, Repression of civic space … 18
Financial-system fragility Civak, nakokî û aborî Asset-bubble collapse, Property-market crash, Credit crunch, Non-bank financial run, Central counterparty or settlement failure, Government bond market dysfunction, Corporate default wave, Digital-asset collapse … 12
Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks Civak, nakokî û aborî Inflation shock, Stagflation, Deflationary spiral, Interest-rate shock, Capital-flow sudden stop, Severe national recession, Global recession, Local-government fiscal crisis … 12
Labour and technology transition Civak, nakokî û aborî Automation-driven job displacement, Skills mismatch, Mass unemployment surge, Critical labour shortage, Regional industrial decline, Large-scale labour strike, Informal and precarious work shock 7
Population structure and movement Civak, nakokî û aborî Rapid population ageing, Ultra-low fertility, Depopulation, Youth bulge with unemployment, Rapid unplanned urbanisation, Protracted displacement, Dangerous irregular migration, Climate-driven migration and relocation … 12
Social cohesion and atrocity risk Civak, nakokî û aborî Societal polarisation, Collapse of institutional trust, Inequality shock, Hate-crime wave, Incitement and dehumanising propaganda, Systematic persecution of a group, Genocide, Violent radicalisation … 9
Organised crime and illicit economies Civak, nakokî û aborî Transnational organised crime, Criminal governance of territory, Human trafficking, Migrant smuggling, Drug trafficking, Illicit arms trafficking, Illicit financial flows, Maritime piracy and armed robbery at sea … 12
Cultural heritage loss Civak, nakokî û aborî Deliberate destruction of cultural heritage, Looting and trafficking of cultural property, Climate and natural-hazard damage to heritage, Language extinction, Loss of traditional and Indigenous knowledge, Loss of archives and records, Overtourism degradation 7
06Rêbaz

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

30 methods

Bazar, bazirganî û zincîreyên peydakirinê

Commodity Price Risk · Price Volatility · Market Regime · Demand Forecasting · Supply Forecasting · Trade Dependency · Bilateral Concentration …

56 methods

Sîber, AI û teknolojiya pêşeng

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08Rapor

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-06
Edition status
plankirî
Mijar
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Jêgirtin

Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Semiconductors series (GRX-SER-XT-06), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-06/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000093.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-06:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.INF.disruption.infrastructure_fragility:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profîlên welatan Hemû rêze

Rewş

Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.

NXS-GRX çi nîne

NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.

Sazî û çavkanî

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.