The world, read as one system
The state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.
One grammar from source to global reading
Global values aggregate the 195 profiles, weighted by population for human-centred domains and by exposure or output for economic and infrastructure domains, and read the global systems directly.
- Event streamsSOURCES · SOURCES · near real timeAdmitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
- 205 çavkaniyên tomarkirîSOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gatedEvery source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
- Scenario familiesSOURCES · SOURCES · labelledSocio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
- Surveys and elicitationSOURCES · SOURCES · perceptionStructured expert elicitation and public surveys, kept apart from measured risk.
- Dependency networkNETWORK · NETWORK · six layersTrade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and information links.
- Harmonised seriesHAR · HAR · units, areas, timeSource series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
- 451 nîşanderIND · IND · Indicator StandardNative indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
- 86 sub-indicesSUB · SUB · normalisedNormalised, weighted and aggregated components inside each domain.
- 20 domain indicesIDX · IDX · 1,000 drawsTwenty domain indices with Monte Carlo intervals and sensitivity.
- Systemic coupling scoreCOUPLING · COUPLING · SContagion on the dependency network: DebtRank, clearing and threshold cascades.
- Hazard and threat exposurePILLAR · PILLAR · HTEWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- Human and systems vulnerabilityPILLAR · PILLAR · VULHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- Macro-financial and structural fragilityPILLAR · PILLAR · MSFHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- Lack of coping and adaptive capacityPILLAR · PILLAR · LCCCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- LêdanINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weeklyNowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
- PêşdîtinINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 monthsCalibrated event probabilities with verification scorecards.
- DûvikINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedanceExceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
- RêINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100Fan charts under named scenario families.
- PerceptionINSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separatePerceived severity and the perception gap.
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskCOMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometricComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
- 195 profîlên welatanPROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervalsEvery domain, pillar and instrument per country, never ranked.
- 54 series indicesSERIES · SERIES · global to technologySpecialised indices from the same domain indices.
- API, tiles and bulk filesACCESS · ACCESS · machinePublic cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
- NXS-GRX Coupled RiskCOMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Four pillars, one composite, one coupled composite
A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%).
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Rêbaz
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
| Amûr | Nirx | Guhertin | Guhertin % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Meyl | Navber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
Twenty domain indices
Every domain index stays visible beside the pillars and the composite; none is collapsed silently.
| Navnîşan | Nirx | Guhertin | Guhertin % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Meyl | Navber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fiscal and public debt riskNXS-GRX · FIS | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Financial stability riskNXS-GRX · FIN | – | – | – | – | – | ||
External dependence riskNXS-GRX · ECO | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Climate physical hazardNXS-GRX · CLI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Climate transition exposureNXS-GRX · CLI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Multi-hazard exposureNXS-GRX · HAZ | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Environmental pressureNXS-GRX · ENV | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Water security riskNXS-GRX · WAT | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Space-weather exposureNXS-GRX · SPC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Health security riskNXS-GRX · HLT | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Food insecurity riskNXS-GRX · FOO | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Socio-economic vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · SOC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Displacement pressureNXS-GRX · DEM | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Conflict riskNXS-GRX · CON | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Energy security riskNXS-GRX · ENE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Infrastructure fragilityNXS-GRX · INF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping capacityNXS-GRX · CRS | – | – | – | – | – |
Every country at a glance
A tile per profile, grouped by UN M49 region, and the largest movements since the previous edition.
Tiles are coloured by composite class once values are released; select a tile to open the profile.
Where risk travels across systems and borders
The Coupling instrument types the dependency edges between ten systems and reports the coupled composite beside the standalone one.
| WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO | FIN | TRD | INF | DIG | SEC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Av |
The rare, severe end of the distribution
Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled, plus a register of low-probability, high-impact risks.
Standing tail register
How risk moves to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families as fan charts, never as single lines.
Calibrated probabilities, verified in public
Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability, Brier skill and ROC area against realised outcomes.
Avahîyî
What is the slow-moving baseline of risk? ◆ESTIMATED◆MODELLED.
Rêbaz Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releasesLêdan
What has changed since the last structural cut? ●OBSERVED▲INFERRED.
Rêbaz Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 monthsPêşdîtin
How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? ◇FORECAST.
Rêbaz Each annual editionRê
How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? ○SCENARIO◈SIMULATED.
Rêbaz Each annual edition, event-updatedDûvik
What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? ◈SIMULATED◆MODELLED.
Rêbaz Each annual edition, quarterly network refreshGirêdan
Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ◆ESTIMATED◈SIMULATED.
Rêbaz Annual expert and public survey wavesPerception
Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? ◎EXPERT INPUT□REPORTED.
RêbazFrom a detected signal to a briefing
Pulse and Outlook signals stop at an analyst gate; nothing is issued as a warning by NXS-GRX, and every handoff names the authority that decides.
End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
- Anomaly detectedDetect · Pulse nowcast · weeklyStandardised anomaly vs own historyPulse nowcast
- Sources verified matrix · per streamVerify · Data stewards · 1 dayEach stream checked · Licence admits useTomara lîsansanEslê daneyan (W3C PROV)
- Analyst review approvalAssess · Analysts · 2 daysContext, couplings, confidenceDefterê PostgreSQL (ewlehiya li ser asta rêzê)
- Information for competent authoritiesHand off · Secretariat · 1 dayShared for review, not a warningDeriyê NXS-GRX
- Logged and watchedHand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoingOutcome tracked for verificationPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
| Berhem | Kar | Kî | Qonax |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signal candidate | Anomaly detected | Pulse nowcast | Detect |
| Source check | Sources verified | Parêzvanên daneyan | Piştrast bikin |
| Assessment | Analyst review | Analysts | Assess |
| Handoff record | Information for competent authorities | Sekreterya | Radest bike |
| Verification record | Logged and watched | Pulse nowcast | Radest bike |
Every series and region
Global sector series
Fifteen sector indices on the grammar of the Nexus Reports sector screen. 15 series.
Vekirî SRStrategic systems series
Cross-cutting systems where crises entangle. 14 series.
Vekirî XTExponential technology series
Frontier technologies as infrastructure, dependency and hazard. 20 series.
Vekirî THThematic series
Disaster risk reduction, finance and intelligence, and the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus. 4 series.
Vekirî HerêmAfrîka
54 profiles
Vekirî HerêmAmerîka
35 profiles
Vekirî HerêmAsya
48 profiles
Vekirî HerêmEwropa
44 profiles
Vekirî HerêmOkyanûsya
14 profiles
VekirîThe global series lines up with the Nexus Reports global edition (GLB, drafted, in stewardship review). The report reads findings; NXS-GRX carries the values the report cites, with the same identifiers and evidence cuts. Nexus Reports.
Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn
- Global tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/{metric}/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Rêbera çavdêriyê
nis:IDX.HAZ.multi.hazard_exposure:WLD:2026:A
Read any country on the same grammar
Every profile carries the same twenty domains, four pillars and seven instruments, with intervals and sources.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Nîşanên nebzê û îhtîmalên pêşerojê agahî ne ji bo nirxandina saziyên rayedar, qet ne hişyariyên giştî ne; hişyariyên fermî tenê ji saziyên xwedî erk tên.
Sazî û çavkanî
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.