The Global Risks Index
Malbata îndeksan a vekirî û pir-warî ku metirsî, lawazî, nazikiya makro-darayî, kapasîteya berxwedanê û girêdana pergalî ji bo her welatî dixwîne, bi navber, çavkanî û rastkirinan li ser her nirxî.
Where to start
Çavdêrxane
The live globe: layers, H3 cells, population and alerts.
Vekirî BixwîneIntelligence hub
Signals and outlooks across all twenty domains.
Vekirî Berhev bikin195 country sites
Profiles with every province and district on terrain maps.
Vekirî PîvanÎndeksên waran
Twenty indices in four pillars, with intervals.
Vekirî CeribandinIndex Lab
Composite construction and signal testing on your data.
Vekirî Ji nû ve bikaranînDaneyên vekirî
Downloads with source and licence on every row.
Vekirî Ava bikeAPIs and engines
Every endpoint, engine and key in one place.
Vekirî Beşdar bibeBeşdar bibe
Data, code, design, research and corrections.
VekirîExposure and coverage at a glance
Source observations from open grids, never index values: index values publish with the edition. Each figure names its source and opens its region or country.
GHSL 2025, European Commission JRC (CC BY 4.0), li ser yekîneyên asta yekem hatine berhevkirin.
- Africa72.9 m4.8% of the region
- Americas60.9 m5.9% of the region
- Asia595.2 m12.6% of the region
- Europe37.8 m5.2% of the region
- Oceania3.6 m8.5% of the region
GEBCO 2024 Grid (milkê giştî) û GHSL 2025 (CC BY 4.0); mirovên li ser erdê di 10 m an kêmtir de.
- ADM13,188195 countries
- ADM248,764175 countries
- ADM395,84674 countries
- ADM493,96917 countries
- ADM5699,5963 countries
geoBoundaries, her welat û ast bi lîsansa xwe; qatên share-alike cuda hatine hiştin.
- Afrîka39ji 54
- Amerîka33ji 35
- Asya40ji 48
- Ewropa30ji 44
- Okyanûsya14ji 14
GEBCO 2024 Grid (milkê giştî) û GHSL 2025 (CC BY 4.0); mirovên li ser erdê di 10 m an kêmtir de.
Global exposure map
People per H3 cell from the GHSL 2025 grid on a tilted world map. Scroll moves the page; Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, or + and −, zoom the map; drag to pan, right-drag to tilt and turn; select a country to open it.
What NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) is
Malbata îndeksan a vekirî û pir-warî ku metirsî, lawazî, nazikiya makro-darayî, kapasîteya berxwedanê û girêdana pergalî ji bo her welatî dixwîne, bi navber, çavkanî û rastkirinan li ser her nirxî.
A family of indices, not one monolithic score
NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) publishes twenty domain indices, four pillar indices, a composite and six instruments. The composite never appears without every pillar and domain beside it, and no independent dimension is collapsed silently.
Classes with intervals, never league tables
Every value carries a 90% interval from Monte Carlo analysis over normalisation, weights, imputation and aggregation. Countries are placed in risk classes with a stated class probability; pages list countries by name or code, never by value.
No data is not zero
A missing input is shown as missing, an imputed input is flagged, and a value is withheld when coverage falls below the method’s minimum. An empty profile, an unavailable source and an observed zero render differently.
Every value resolves to its source
Each value carries its source release, licence, retrieval time, method version and transformation chain (W3C PROV). A correction anywhere propagates to every dependent value and is logged publicly.
Measured, modelled and perceived are kept apart
Status glyphs separate observed, reported, estimated, inferred, forecast, simulated, scenario and expert input. Perception signals form their own instrument and are never blended into measured risk.
Systemic by construction
Standalone risk and coupling-adjusted risk are reported side by side, from typed dependency networks across trade, finance, energy, food, infrastructure and information.
Licence-gated and reproducible
A source enters a public value only when its licence admits that use; withheld values are counted, not hidden. Methods, code paths, seeds and digests are published per release so any value can be recomputed.
Information, not authority
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice, and it never decides for an institution.
The world board
Composite, coupled composite and the four pillars for the world, with change, interval, class probability and trend, and the countries that moved most.
| Amûr | Nirx | Guhertin | Guhertin % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Meyl | Navber |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
Your watchlist
Why a new index
Established indices each read part of risk well. None reads all of it on one grammar with uncertainty, systemic coupling, forecasts, scenarios and provenance on every value.
The gap matrix
- 01Valahî
No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar.
- 02Valahî
Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite.
- 03Valahî
Subnational coverage is thin and not comparable
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
- 04Valahî
Uncertainty is rarely reported; ranks are over-read
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-1090% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables.
- 05Valahî
Data lags one to three years
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams.
- 06Valahî
Few indices forecast or are back-tested
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Outlook instrument with published verification scorecards
All 17 gaps
- 07Valahî
Scenario projections are rare and macro-only
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100.
- 08Valahî
Perceived and measured risk are blurred
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap.
- 09Valahî
Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Record-level provenance, licence gate, public correction log
- 10Valahî
Machine access is weak (PDF and spreadsheet releases)
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases.
- 11Valahî
Licence restrictions block derived reuse
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Per-source licence gate; withheld values counted
- 12Valahî
Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped.
- 13Valahî
Capacity on paper is mistaken for performance
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events.
- 14Valahî
Methods change and break comparability
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Semantic versions, back-cast series, digests per release
- 15Valahî
Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument.
- 16Valahî
No shared taxonomy across indices
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists.
- 17Valahî
Means hide fat tails
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled.
Families read, each with what it leaves open
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied.
Çawa dixebite
Ten journeys from the registries: source to profile, a run, provenance, correction, the composite, a country profile, a release, the instruments, a data offer and API access. Select a step to trace it. Play runs only when you press it.
Process explorer · NXS-GRX · Pipeline
From source to profile
24 steps·8 stages
NXS-GRX · Pipeline
From source to profile
Source to profile · A run you follow · Provenance · Correction · Pillars and composite · Country profile · Edition release · Seven instruments · Data offer · API access.
Licensed sources become indicators, domain indices, four pillars and the composite, then country profiles, series and the API.
01 Çavkanî
- 01205 çavkaniyên tomarkirî
- 02Event streams
- 03Scenario families
- 04Surveys and elicitation
02 Lihevanîn
- 05Harmonised series
- 06Dependency network
03 Indicators
- 07451 nîşander
04 Sub-indices
- 0886 sub-indices
05 Domains
- 0920 domain indices
06 Stûn
- 10Hazard and threat exposure
- 11Human and systems vulnerability
- 12Macro-financial and structural fragility
- 13Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
- 14Systemic coupling score
07 Composite and instruments
- 15NXS-GRX Composite Risk
- 16Lêdan
- 17Pêşdîtin
- 18Rê
- 19Dûvik
- 20Perception
08 Outputs
- 21NXS-GRX Coupled Risk
- 22195 profîlên welatan
- 2354 series indices
- 24API, tiles and bulk files
Four pillars, one composite, never alone
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices.
Hazard and threat exposure
What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way? 5 domain indices.
Îndeks VULHuman and systems vulnerability
How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives? 8 domain indices.
Îndeks MSFMacro-financial and structural fragility
How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis? 5 domain indices.
Îndeks LCCLack of coping and adaptive capacity
Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt? 2 domain indices.
ÎndeksSeven instruments, seven questions
Avahîyî
What is the slow-moving baseline of risk? ◆ESTIMATED◆MODELLED.
Rêbaz Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releasesLêdan
What has changed since the last structural cut? ●OBSERVED▲INFERRED.
Rêbaz Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 monthsPêşdîtin
How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? ◇FORECAST.
Rêbaz Each annual editionRê
How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? ○SCENARIO◈SIMULATED.
Rêbaz Each annual edition, event-updatedDûvik
What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? ◈SIMULATED◆MODELLED.
Rêbaz Each annual edition, quarterly network refreshGirêdan
Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ◆ESTIMATED◈SIMULATED.
Rêbaz Annual expert and public survey wavesPerception
Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? ◎EXPERT INPUT□REPORTED.
RêbazTwenty domain indices in four pillars
Each domain index has its own page with components, indicators, aggregation and intervals. Pick a pillar.
HTE: What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
Multi-hazard exposure index
5 components · 17 indicators HTE · CLIClimate physical hazard index
3 components · 16 indicators HTE · CONConflict risk index
4 components · 15 indicators HTE · SPCSpace-weather exposure index
2 components · 6 indicators HTE · CLIClimate transition exposure index
2 components · 5 indicatorsVUL: How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
Socio-economic vulnerability index
5 components · 18 indicators VUL · DEMDisplacement pressure index
4 components · 10 indicators VUL · FOOFood insecurity risk index
5 components · 20 indicators VUL · WATWater security risk index
4 components · 11 indicators VUL · HLTHealth security risk index
5 components · 25 indicators VUL · ENVEnvironmental pressure index
5 components · 16 indicators VUL · ENEEnergy security risk index
5 components · 20 indicators VUL · INFInfrastructure fragility index
5 components · 24 indicatorsMSF: How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
Fiscal and public debt risk index
7 components · 27 indicators MSF · FINFinancial stability risk index
7 components · 28 indicators MSF · ECOExternal dependence risk index
5 components · 22 indicators MSF · CYBCyber risk index
3 components · 12 indicators MSF · TECTechnology concentration risk index
4 components · 10 indicatorsLCC: Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
14 hazard domains
The Nexus Hazard Standard (Hazard Standard) sorts every hazard into fourteen domains and their families.
Atmosfer û hewa
41 hazards · 5 familiesPergalên avê
18 hazards · 3 familiesQeşa û berf
47 hazards · 6 familiesErdê hişk
17 hazards · 2 familiesEzman û nêzî Erdê
39 hazards · 6 familiesErd û ekosîstem
58 hazards · 7 familiesSînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê
63 hazards · 9 familiesQirêjî û madeyên xeternak
124 hazards · 21 familiesTenduristî û ewlehiya biyolojîk
110 hazards · 13 familiesPergalên avakirî
48 hazards · 6 familiesPergalên agahiyê û sîber-fîzîkî
109 hazards · 16 familiesTeknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal
130 hazards · 14 familiesCivak, nakokî û aborî
47 hazards · 4 familiesBûyerên pergalî û tevlihev
Global, sector, strategic, technology, thematic and regional
Rêzeyên cîhanî
The world read as one interdependent system. 1 series.
Vekirî GSGlobal sector series
Fifteen sector indices on the grammar of the Nexus Reports sector screen. 15 series.
Vekirî SRStrategic systems series
Cross-cutting systems where crises entangle. 14 series.
Vekirî XTExponential technology series
Frontier technologies as infrastructure, dependency and hazard. 20 series.
Vekirî THThematic series
Disaster risk reduction, finance and intelligence, and the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus. 4 series.
Vekirî RGRêzeya herêmî
The five UN M49 regions and their twenty-two sub-regions. 5 regions.
Vekirî195 country sites by region
One site per country with every province and district on terrain maps. Values publish with the edition.
How to read NXS-GRX
Classes, not ranks
A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%).
The status of every value
| Glîf | Rewş | Navîn |
|---|---|---|
| ● | ÇAVDÊRÎKIRÎ | Measured directly and published by the source |
| □ | HATIYE RAPORKIRIN | Reported or declared by a publisher, not independently measured |
| ◆ | TEXMÎNKIRÎ | Estimated or modelled by a stated method |
| ▲ | ENCAMGIRTÎ | Inferred from related signals |
| ◇ | PÊŞBÎNÎ | Probabilistic statement about a future period |
| ◈ | SÎMULEKIRÎ | Output of a simulation or stochastic event set |
| ○ | SENARYO | Conditional on a named scenario, not a prediction |
| ◎ | EXPERT INPUT | Dadweriya pisporan a sazkirî |
When there is no value
| Rewş | Navîn |
|---|---|
PUBLISHED | Released in an edition with interval, class and sources |
NO_DATA | No admitted input; not a zero |
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE | Coverage below the method minimum; value withheld |
WITHHELD | An input’s licence or the public-safe screen does not admit public display; counted |
DEGRADED | Published with a stated quality limitation |
Xizmeta kê dike
Solutions by sector: what each user needs, the products that answer it and the journeys that deliver it.
Governments and national agencies
Prioritise prevention, plan subnationally and report on Sendai.
IFIMultilaterals and development banks
Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience.
UNUN system and humanitarian agencies
Compare needs with intervals, watch weekly signals.
REGBankên navendî û çavdêr
Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.
INSSîgortekar û ji nû ve sîgortekar
Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails.
FINBanks and asset managers
Read sovereign and systemic context, run climate pathways.
CORPCorporates and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers, watch chokepoints and keep country context current.
GOVCities and infrastructure operators
Read hexagon-level hazard and dependency layers for planning, investment.
ACAResearch and academia
Replicate every value, study and extend the methods, contribute data and review.
ACADevelopers and frontier-tech builders
Build applications, models.
NGOCivil society and NGOs
Target programmes with open profiles and contribute local evidence.
MEDMedia and citizens
Explain risk with intervals and classes, and embed maps.
Tasks and journeys
Every task is a run you can follow: who acts at each job, the technology, the checks and the gates where it waits for review.
- Submit a correction5 stages · 10 jobs
- Country right of reply4 stages · 7 jobs
- Offer a dataset5 stages · 8 jobs
- Request API access4 stages · 6 jobs
- Commission a bespoke index5 stages · 7 jobs
- Co-develop a national index5 stages · 7 jobs
- Request a scenario pack5 stages · 5 jobs
- Become an expert reviewer4 stages · 5 jobs
Rêbaz
The methods the indices and instruments run on, grouped in fabrics, each with its own page.
Data, licences and the API
Every source is registered with its licence. Only what a licence admits reaches a public value.
Daneyên vekirî
Downloads with source and licence on every row.
LîsansThe licence gate
Nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
Ava bikeAPIs and engines
Every endpoint, engine and key in one place.
NexşeDaneyên erdnîgarî
Boundaries, H3 cells and tiles with their sources.
Three independent stewards, three lenses
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) works through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario. GCRI Canada leads the Nexus Consortium as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation. The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) keep independent mandates as consortium stewards. Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and have no control over institutional governance, research, publications, national priorities or customer, sovereign and community data.
GCRI Canada
Evidence, methods, risk ontology, data discipline, verifiable records and correction.
The Global Risks Forum
Leadership, institutional dialogue and the stewardship of Nexus Universe. It records the programme gates G0 to G7.
The Global Risks Alliance
Finance, insurance and development readiness. Risk evidence becomes diligence material, never an approval or a transaction.
Governance and corrections
Every value moves through recorded states. Anyone can submit a correction, and every correction is logged in public.
The life of a value
Rêveberî
Three stewards, independent lenses, recorded decisions.
RastkirinSubmit a correction
A correction is recomputed, reviewed by stewards and logged.
Bersiv bideMafê bersivê yê welatê
A country can answer what its profile says.
AgahdarîAgahdariyên qanûnî
Licences, terms and what the Index is not.
Evidence cuts
An edition is published after review, not to a calendar; the dates are evidence cuts.
Edition and correction alerts
Notices when an edition, a vintage or a correction is published; no tracking and no other use.
- 01Fill inFields marked (required) are needed; everything else helps the review.
- 02ReferenceYou get a reference on screen; the record is kept in this site’s WordPress database.
- 03ReviewThe outcome is recorded in public. Contact details stay on this site and are never published or shared.
This form opens here once it is switched on. Until then, send it through the Nexus Reports gateway.
Built to be checked
Every value will open to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. Read the method, try the simulators, and tell us where we are wrong.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Nîşanên nebzê û îhtîmalên pêşerojê agahî ne ji bo nirxandina saziyên rayedar, qet ne hişyariyên giştî ne; hişyariyên fermî tenê ji saziyên xwedî erk tên.
Sazî û çavkanî
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.