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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index Models · Model · on: scenario run requested

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

Follow the run All journeys
Rûpel GRX-JRN-MODEL-SCENARIOÇap Çapa Bingehîn 2026Girtina delîlan 2026-09-30Kar 7Nirx hê nehatiye weşandinRêbaz v1.0.0-draft
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario family instant
  2. Configure shocks and horizon self-serve
  3. Model runs 3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation 1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance 1 hour
  6. Results and drivers instant
  7. Analyst sign-off 2 days

01Model

Run a scenario or stress test

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested

Run a scenario or stress test

In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Grafîk
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05Bixwîne
06Bixwîne

100%
Rêzkirina demê
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Gav
  1. Choose the scenario family

    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon

    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws

    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation

    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    Dependency networkTested model kernels
  5. Tail and exceedance

    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    Motora Monte Carlo
  6. Results and drivers

    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval

    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    Defterê PostgreSQL (ewlehiya li ser asta rêzê)
Tomar
Berhem Kar Kî Qonax
Scenario spec Choose the scenario family Tu Design
Run configuration Configure shocks and horizon Tu Design
Run record with seed and digest Model runs Model Lab Run
Cascade paths Coupling propagation Dependency network Propagate
Tail report Tail and exceedance Model Lab Propagate
Results pack Results and drivers Tu Bixwîne
Sign-off Analyst sign-off Your reviewer Bixwîne
QediyaDi pêvajoyê deLi benda pejirandinêDi rêzê deDeriyê pejirandinêKarê matrîksêHûn li vir in
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02Ji bo kê ye

Solutions that use this journey

Sektora giştî

Multilaterals and development banks

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

See the solution Public sector

Bankên navendî û çavdêr

Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.

See the solution Enterprise

Sîgortekar û ji nû ve sîgortekar

Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails and study parametric index design.

See the solution Public sector

Cities and infrastructure operators

Read hexagon-level hazard and dependency layers for planning, investment and continuity.

See the solution

03Teknolojî

6 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artefacts.

Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engineDependency networkProvenance (W3C PROV)PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)

Part of NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.

Têkilî

Rewş

Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.

NXS-GRX çi nîne

NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.

Sazî û çavkanî

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.