Skip to content

Foundry

El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index Models · Model · on: scenario run requested

Ejecutar un escenario o una prueba de estrés

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

Follow the run All journeys
Página GRX-JRN-MODEL-SCENARIOEdición Edición de referencia 2026Cierre de evidencia 2026-09-30Empleos 7Valores aún no publicadosMétodo v1.0.0-draft
on: scenario run requested · Run a scenario or stress test7 jobs · 1 gate
  1. Choose the scenario family instant
  2. Configure shocks and horizon self-serve
  3. Model runs 3 hours
  4. Coupling propagation 1 hour
  5. Tail and exceedance 1 hour
  6. Results and drivers instant
  7. Analyst sign-off 2 days

01Modelo

Ejecutar un escenario o una prueba de estrés

Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails.

on: scenario run requested

Ejecutar un escenario o una prueba de estrés

In progressTriggered by Risk analyst7 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Grafo
01Design
02Design
03Run
04Propagate
05Leer
06Leer

100%
Cronología
Job0 h10 h20 h30 h40 h50 hTarget
Choose the scenario familyYouinstant
Configure shocks and horizonYouinstant
Model runsModel Lab3 h
Coupling propagationDependency network1 h
Tail and exceedanceModel Lab1 h
Results and driversYouinstant
Analyst sign-offYour reviewer2 d

End to end on the longest path: about 2.2 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Pasos
  1. Choose the scenario family

    Design · You · instant
    Warming, socio-economic or transition families · Or a structured shock: fiscal, compound hazard, supply
    Model Lab
  2. Configure shocks and horizon

    Design · You · self-serve
    Shock size, timing and entry points · Horizon to 2030, 2050 or 2100
    Model LabTested model kernels
  3. Model runs matrix · entities × scenarios × draws

    Run · Model Lab · 3 hours
    Kernels from the method library · Seeds recorded per run
    Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engine
  4. Coupling propagation

    Propagate · Dependency network · 1 hour
    DebtRank and threshold cascades · Cross-border spillovers
    Red de dependenciasNúcleos de modelos probados
  5. Tail and exceedance

    Propagate · Model Lab · 1 hour
    Exceedance curves · 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 losses · Expected shortfall
    Motor Monte Carlo
  6. Results and drivers

    Read · You · instant
    Fan charts against class bounds · Driver decomposition · Export with citation
    Model LabProvenance (W3C PROV)
  7. Analyst sign-off approval

    Read · Your reviewer · 2 days
    Assumptions and limits recorded
    Registro PostgreSQL (seguridad a nivel de fila)
Artefactos
Producto Tarea Quién Fase
Scenario spec Choose the scenario family Tú Design
Run configuration Configure shocks and horizon Tú Design
Run record with seed and digest Model runs Model Lab Run
Cascade paths Coupling propagation Red de dependencias Propagate
Tail report Tail and exceedance Model Lab Propagate
Results pack Results and drivers Tú Leer
Sign-off Analyst sign-off Your reviewer Leer
CompletadoEn cursoEn espera de aprobaciónEn colaPunto de control de aprobaciónTarea de la matrizUsted está aquí
Configure a pathway or a structured shock, run it across entities and draws in Model Lab, propagate it through the coupling network and read the tails. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
02A quién va dirigido

Solutions that use this journey

Sector público

Organismos multilaterales y bancos de desarrollo

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection gaps, and design pre-arranged finance.

See the solution Public sector

Bancos centrales y supervisores

Diseñar escenarios de supervisión, leer el acoplamiento sistémico y replicar métodos.

See the solution Enterprise

Aseguradoras y reaseguradoras

Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails and study parametric index design.

See the solution Public sector

Ciudades y operadores de infraestructura

Read hexagon-level hazard and dependency layers for planning, investment and continuity.

See the solution

03Tecnología

6 components

Each job names the component it runs on; open a job on the canvas for its steps, checks and artefacts.

Model LabTested model kernelsMonte Carlo engineDependency networkProvenance (W3C PROV)PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)

Part of NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Models: Scenario pathways, stress tests, tail and exceedance analytics, coupling contagion and forecasting on the open method library, with tests and model cards.

Start this journey

Talk to the Secretariat to start this journey with your team.

Contacto

Estado

La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.

Lo que NXS-GRX no es

NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.

Instituciones y fuentes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.