The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Îndeksa rîska bêewlehiya xwarinê
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Nediyarî
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Avahî
5 components
20 leaf indicators
Vegirtin
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.
computation
How Food insecurity risk is computedGraph28 nodes
Grafîk
01Nîşander
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Pêkhatî
100%
Lîste
- Para nifûsa analîzkirî ya di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIndicator · IND · %People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
- Nifûsa di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIndicator · IND · personsNumber of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
- Hebûna nifûsê di IPC Phase 5 deIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
- Belavbûna kêmxwarinêIndicator · IND · %Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
- Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya navîn an dijwar (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
- Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya dijwar (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
- Nifûsa ku nikare xwarineke tendurist bikireIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
- Nîşanderê anomaliyên bihayê xwarinê (CPI ya xwarinê)Indicator · IND · 1Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
- Mehên bi bihayên xwarinê yên nenormal bilindIndicator · IND · %Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
- Enflasyona bihayên xwarinêIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
- Lêçûna xwarineke tenduristIndicator · IND · USDDaily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
- Têrbûna navîn a dabînkirina enerjiya xwarinêIndicator · IND · %Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
- Guhêrbariya dabînkirina xwarinê ji bo her kesîIndicator · IND · kcal per day per personYear-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
- Rêjeya girêdayîbûna bi îthalata dexlêIndicator · IND · %Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
- Fatûreya îthalata xwarinê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIndicator · IND · %Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
- Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIndicator · IND · %Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
- Kar di çandiniyê de, para tevahiya karanIndicator · IND · %People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
- Berhema dexlêIndicator · IND · kg/haHarvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
- Guhêrbariya berhema dexlê (15 salî)Indicator · IND · %Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
- Kişandina avê ji bo çandiniyê, para tevahiyêIndicator · IND · %Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
- Acute food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
- Chronic food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Food price stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
- Food supply fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
- Agricultural dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
- Îndeksa rîska bêewlehiya xwarinêDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
- Lawaziya mirov û sîstemanPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
di geroka te de dixebite
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Rêbaz
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- pispor
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Nediyarî
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
Pir kêm0.0 heta < 2.0
Kêm2.0 heta < 3.5
Navîn3.5 heta < 5.0
Bilind5.0 heta < 6.5
Pir bilind6.5 heta 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Para nifûsa analîzkirî ya di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | % | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | 50.0% |
Nifûsa di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | {persons} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc | 25.0% |
Hebûna nifûsê di IPC Phase 5 deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | {bool} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee | 25.0% |
Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Belavbûna kêmxwarinêIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya navîn an dijwar (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya dijwar (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Nifûsa ku nikare xwarineke tendurist bikireIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | % | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food price stress sub-index w 1
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nîşanderê anomaliyên bihayê xwarinê (CPI ya xwarinê)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 1 | Class B | fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi | 25.0% |
Mehên bi bihayên xwarinê yên nenormal bilindIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 25.0% |
Enflasyona bihayên xwarinêIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | % | Class B | fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi | 25.0% |
Lêçûna xwarineke tenduristIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | [USD] | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food supply fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Têrbûna navîn a dabînkirina enerjiya xwarinêIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Guhêrbariya dabînkirina xwarinê ji bo her kesîIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | kcal/d/{person} | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna bi îthalata dexlêIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Fatûreya îthalata xwarinê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
| Nîşander | Yekîne | Delîl | Çavkanî | Par |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-national-accounts | 22.2% |
Kar di çandiniyê de, para tevahiya karanIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Berhema dexlêIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | kg/har | Class B | fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Guhêrbariya berhema dexlê (15 salî)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl | 22.2% |
Kişandina avê ji bo çandiniyê, para tevahiyêIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | % | Class B | fao-aquastat, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
05Qad
Food systems
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
| Sub-domain | Nîşander |
|---|---|
| Availability | 5 |
| Access and affordability | 4 |
| Acute food insecurity | 4 |
| Food prices | 3 |
| Agricultural production and dependence | 7 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.
06Nîşander
All 23 food systems indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Nîşander | Qad | Sub-domain | Component | Yekîne | Ast | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Belavbûna kêmxwarinêIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
Hejmara kesên kêmxwarîIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
Têrbûna navîn a dabînkirina enerjiya xwarinêIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
Guhêrbariya dabînkirina xwarinê ji bo her kesîIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
Rêjeya girêdayîbûna bi îthalata dexlêIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya navîn an dijwar (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
Bêewlehiya xwarinê ya dijwar (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
Lêçûna xwarineke tenduristIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
Nifûsa ku nikare xwarineke tendurist bikireIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
Nifûsa di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
Para nifûsa analîzkirî ya di IPC Phase 3 an jortir deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
IPC Phase 3 an jortir, para tevahiya nifûsêIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
Hebûna nifûsê di IPC Phase 5 deIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
Nîşanderê anomaliyên bihayê xwarinê (CPI ya xwarinê)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
Mehên bi bihayên xwarinê yên nenormal bilindIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
Fatûreya îthalata xwarinê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Kar di çandiniyê de, para tevahiya karanIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
Berhema dexlêIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
Guhêrbariya berhema dexlê (15 salî)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Kişandina avê ji bo çandiniyê, para tevahiyêIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
Erda çandiniyê, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
Vegetation Health Index li ser erda çandiniyêIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID |
07Quote
Food insecurity risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Rêbaz
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Afrîka54
Amerîka35
Asya48
Ewropa44
Hîn tu guherîn tune. Guherînên ji çapa berê ve ji çapa duyem û pê ve li vir têne rêzkirin, bi nîşaneyên ku ew ajotine.
08Nirx
Country values
FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
Nexşe tê barkirin
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Rêbera çavdêriyê
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Rêze
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 9 |
FAO_FAOSTAT | 8 |
SDG | 4 |
IPC | 3 |
11Across the Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
Food Nexus · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance.
12Jêgirtin
Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Rewş
Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.
NXS-GRX çi nîne
NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.
Sazî û çavkanî
Nexus Consortium ji aliyê sê saziyên ne-qezencî yên serbixwe ve tê parastin: Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), bi rêya GCRI US li Waşington, DC û GCRI Canada li Ontarioyê, bi GCRI Canada wekî Saziya Pêşeng, Sekreteryaya Konsorsiyûmê û rêxistina peymanê ya pêşeng; Global Risks Forum (GRF); û Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Dabînkerên teknolojî, binesazî û xizmetê bi Konsorsiyûmê re ji dûr ve li gorî peymanên nivîskî dixebitin, wek her aliyekî din ê derve di modela giştî-taybet-gerstêrkê de, û di parastina wê de tu rola wan tune.
Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.