The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Index des Risikos der Ernährungsunsicherheit
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Unsicherheit
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Struktur
5 components
20 leaf indicators
Abdeckung
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.
computation
How Food insecurity risk is computedGraph28 nodes
Graph
01Indikatoren
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Säule
05Zusammengesetzt
100%
Verzeichnis
- Anteil der analysierten Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 3 oder höherIndicator · IND · %People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
- Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 3 oder höherIndicator · IND · personsNumber of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
- Vorhandensein von Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 5Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
- Prävalenz der UnterernährungIndicator · IND · %Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
- Mäßige oder schwere Ernährungsunsicherheit (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
- Schwere Ernährungsunsicherheit (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
- Bevölkerung, die sich keine gesunde Ernährung leisten kannIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
- Indikator für Lebensmittelpreisanomalien (Lebensmittel-VPI)Indicator · IND · 1Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
- Monate mit ungewöhnlich hohen LebensmittelpreisenIndicator · IND · %Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
- LebensmittelpreisinflationIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
- Kosten einer gesunden ErnährungIndicator · IND · USDDaily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
- Durchschnittliche Angemessenheit der NahrungsenergieversorgungIndicator · IND · %Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
- Variabilität der Nahrungsmittelversorgung pro KopfIndicator · IND · kcal per day per personYear-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
- GetreideimportabhängigkeitsquoteIndicator · IND · %Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
- Kosten der Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenexportenIndicator · IND · %Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
- Wertschöpfung von Land- und Forstwirtschaft und Fischerei, Anteil am BIPIndicator · IND · %Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
- Beschäftigung in der Landwirtschaft, Anteil an der GesamtbeschäftigungIndicator · IND · %People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
- GetreideertragIndicator · IND · kg/haHarvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
- Variabilität des Getreideertrags (15 Jahre)Indicator · IND · %Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
- Landwirtschaftliche Wasserentnahme, Anteil an der GesamtentnahmeIndicator · IND · %Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
- Acute food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
- Chronic food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Food price stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
- Food supply fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
- Agricultural dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
- Index des Risikos der ErnährungsunsicherheitDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
- Verwundbarkeit von Menschen und SystemenPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Nicht ausgeführtIn BearbeitungErledigt
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
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läuft in Ihrem Browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Methode
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- Fachkundige
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Unsicherheit
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
Sehr niedrig0.0 bis < 2.0
Niedrig2.0 bis < 3.5
Mittel3.5 bis < 5.0
Hoch5.0 bis < 6.5
Sehr hoch6.5 bis 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Anteil der analysierten Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 3 oder höherIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | % | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | 50.0% |
Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 3 oder höherIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | {persons} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc | 25.0% |
Vorhandensein von Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | {bool} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee | 25.0% |
Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Prävalenz der UnterernährungIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Mäßige oder schwere Ernährungsunsicherheit (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Schwere Ernährungsunsicherheit (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Bevölkerung, die sich keine gesunde Ernährung leisten kannIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | % | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food price stress sub-index w 1
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Indikator für Lebensmittelpreisanomalien (Lebensmittel-VPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 1 | Class B | fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi | 25.0% |
Monate mit ungewöhnlich hohen LebensmittelpreisenIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 25.0% |
LebensmittelpreisinflationIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | % | Class B | fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi | 25.0% |
Kosten einer gesunden ErnährungIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | [USD] | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food supply fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Durchschnittliche Angemessenheit der NahrungsenergieversorgungIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Variabilität der Nahrungsmittelversorgung pro KopfIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | kcal/d/{person} | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
GetreideimportabhängigkeitsquoteIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Kosten der Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
| Indikator | Einheit | Evidenz | Quellen | Anteil |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wertschöpfung von Land- und Forstwirtschaft und Fischerei, Anteil am BIPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-national-accounts | 22.2% |
Beschäftigung in der Landwirtschaft, Anteil an der GesamtbeschäftigungIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
GetreideertragIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | kg/har | Class B | fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Variabilität des Getreideertrags (15 Jahre)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl | 22.2% |
Landwirtschaftliche Wasserentnahme, Anteil an der GesamtentnahmeIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | % | Class B | fao-aquastat, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
05Domäne
Ernährungssysteme
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
| Sub-domain | Indikatoren |
|---|---|
| Availability | 5 |
| Access and affordability | 4 |
| Acute food insecurity | 4 |
| Food prices | 3 |
| Agricultural production and dependence | 7 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.
06Indikatoren
All 23 food systems indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indikator | Domäne | Sub-domain | Komponente | Einheit | Ebenen | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prävalenz der UnterernährungIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
Zahl der unterernährten MenschenIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
Durchschnittliche Angemessenheit der NahrungsenergieversorgungIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
Variabilität der Nahrungsmittelversorgung pro KopfIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
GetreideimportabhängigkeitsquoteIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Mäßige oder schwere Ernährungsunsicherheit (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
Schwere Ernährungsunsicherheit (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
Kosten einer gesunden ErnährungIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
Bevölkerung, die sich keine gesunde Ernährung leisten kannIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 3 oder höherIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
Anteil der analysierten Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 3 oder höherIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
IPC-Phase 3 oder höher, Anteil an der GesamtbevölkerungIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
Vorhandensein von Bevölkerung in IPC-Phase 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
Indikator für Lebensmittelpreisanomalien (Lebensmittel-VPI)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
Monate mit ungewöhnlich hohen LebensmittelpreisenIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
Kosten der Nahrungsmittelimporte, Anteil an den WarenexportenIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Wertschöpfung von Land- und Forstwirtschaft und Fischerei, Anteil am BIPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Beschäftigung in der Landwirtschaft, Anteil an der GesamtbeschäftigungIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
GetreideertragIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
Variabilität des Getreideertrags (15 Jahre)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Landwirtschaftliche Wasserentnahme, Anteil an der GesamtentnahmeIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
Ackerland, Anteil an der LandflächeIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
Vegetation Health Index auf AckerlandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID |
07Kennwert
Food insecurity risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
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Werte erscheinen mit der Ausgabe; Intervall, Klasse und Veränderung werden hier angezeigt.
- Vorherige Ausgabe
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Gekoppeltes Gesamtmaß
- –
- Kopplungswert S
- –
- Pulse, letzte Woche
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Methode
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Ziehungen
- 1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition
Noch keine veröffentlichten Werte. Die erste Ausgabe zeichnet hier den Verlauf mit Intervallband und Klassengrenzen.
Afrika54
Amerika35
Asien48
Europa44
Noch keine Veränderungen. Veränderungen gegenüber der vorherigen Ausgabe werden ab der zweiten Ausgabe hier aufgeführt, mit den Indikatoren, die sie bewirkt haben.
08Werte
Country values
FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
Karte wird geladen
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Kacheln
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Beobachtungsschlüssel
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Reihen
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 9 |
FAO_FAOSTAT | 8 |
SDG | 4 |
IPC | 3 |
11Im gesamten Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Im gesamten Nexus
Food Nexus · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance.
12Zitieren
Zitieren und weiterverwenden
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
Methodik, Struktur und Definitionen des Global Risks Index sind ein vorbereitender Arbeitsentwurf (2026), der zur Prüfung und Stellungnahme und nicht zur Umsetzung verbreitet wird. Kein Wert erscheint, bevor eine Ausgabe aus einem geregelten Evidenzschnitt veröffentlicht ist; die Werte tragen dann Intervalle, Klassen, Quellen und ihren Korrekturweg. Die Simulatoren wenden die veröffentlichten Methoden auf Zahlen an, die Sie wählen, und zeigen niemals einen NXS-GRX-Wert.
Was NXS-GRX nicht ist
NXS-GRX ist eine Forschungs- und Risikoanalyseinformation. Es ist kein Kredit- oder ESG-Rating und verwendet keine Ratingskala, kein Referenzwert für Finanzinstrumente, keine amtliche Statistik, keine Notfallwarnung oder amtliche Einstufung und keine Beratung. Es darf nicht zur Bewertung natürlicher Personen verwendet werden. Risikoklassen sind Bänder auf einer veröffentlichten Skala, niemals Rangfolgen von Ländern oder Personen.
Institutionen und Quellen
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Jeder Wert trägt die Namensnennung seiner Quellen, die ihre eigenen Lizenzen behalten. Externe Namen werden nur zur Interoperabilität zitiert. Von Nexus verfasste Texte sollen bei Veröffentlichung unter CC BY 4.0 stehen.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.