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Il Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Indice di rischio di insicurezza alimentare

Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.

Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

Mazziotta–Pareto

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertezza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Struttura

5 components

20 leaf indicators

Copertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.

computation
How Food insecurity risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
Grafo
01Indicatori
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilastro
05Composito
100%
Indice
  1. Quota della popolazione analizzata in fase IPC 3 o superiore
    Indicator · IND · %
    People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
  2. Popolazione in fase IPC 3 o superiore
    Indicator · IND · persons
    Number of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
  3. Presenza di popolazione in fase IPC 5
    Indicator · IND · yes or no
    Whether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
  4. Prevalenza della denutrizione
    Indicator · IND · %
    Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
  5. Insicurezza alimentare moderata o grave (FIES)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
  6. Insicurezza alimentare grave (FIES)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
  7. Popolazione che non può permettersi una dieta sana
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
  8. Indicatore delle anomalie dei prezzi alimentari (IPC alimentare)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
  9. Mesi con prezzi alimentari anormalmente elevati
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
  10. Inflazione dei prezzi alimentari
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
  11. Costo di una dieta sana
    Indicator · IND · USD
    Daily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
  12. Adeguatezza media dell'apporto energetico alimentare
    Indicator · IND · %
    Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
  13. Variabilità pro capite della disponibilità alimentare
    Indicator · IND · kcal per day per person
    Year-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
  14. Indice di dipendenza dalle importazioni di cereali
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
  15. Spesa per importazioni alimentari, quota delle esportazioni di merci
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
  16. Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PIL
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
  17. Occupazione in agricoltura, quota dell'occupazione totale
    Indicator · IND · %
    People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
  18. Resa dei cereali
    Indicator · IND · kg/ha
    Harvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
  19. Variabilità della resa dei cereali (15 anni)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
  20. Prelievi idrici agricoli, quota del totale
    Indicator · IND · %
    Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
  21. Acute food insecurity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%
    Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
  22. Chronic food insecurity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%
    Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
  23. Food price stress sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%
    Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
  24. Food supply fragility sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%
    Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
  25. Agricultural dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%
    Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
  26. Indice di rischio di insicurezza alimentare
    Domain index · IDX · Mazziotta–Pareto
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
  27. Vulnerabilità umana e dei sistemi
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metodo

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
esperto
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
Scale
0 to 10
Incertezza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2

Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Quota della popolazione analizzata in fase IPC 3 o superioreIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share%Class Bipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population50.0%
Popolazione in fase IPC 3 o superioreIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population{persons}Class Bipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc25.0%
Presenza di popolazione in fase IPC 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence{bool}Class Bipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee25.0%

Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5

Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Prevalenza della denutrizioneIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment%Class Cfao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi25.0%
Insicurezza alimentare moderata o grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe%Class Cfao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi25.0%
Insicurezza alimentare grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe%Class Cfao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi25.0%
Popolazione che non può permettersi una dieta sanaIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable%Class Cwb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi25.0%

Food price stress sub-index w 1

Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Indicatore delle anomalie dei prezzi alimentari (IPC alimentare)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly1Class Bfao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi25.0%
Mesi con prezzi alimentari anormalmente elevatiIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months%Class Dderived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly25.0%
Inflazione dei prezzi alimentariIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation%Class Bfao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi25.0%
Costo di una dieta sanaIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost[USD]Class Cwb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi25.0%

Food supply fragility sub-index w 1

Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Adeguatezza media dell'apporto energetico alimentareIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy%Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%
Variabilità pro capite della disponibilità alimentareIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variabilitykcal/d/{person}Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%
Indice di dipendenza dalle importazioni di cerealiIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency%Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%
Spesa per importazioni alimentari, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports%Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%

Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PILIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, un-national-accounts22.2%
Occupazione in agricoltura, quota dell'occupazione totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share%Class Cilo-ilostat, wb-wdi22.2%
Resa dei cerealiIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yieldkg/harClass Bfao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi22.2%
Variabilità della resa dei cereali (15 anni)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability%Class Dderived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl22.2%
Prelievi idrici agricoli, quota del totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal%Class Bfao-aquastat, wb-wdi11.1%
05Dominio

Sistemi alimentari

Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.

Sub-domainIndicatori
Availability5
Access and affordability4
Acute food insecurity4
Food prices3
Agricultural production and dependence7

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.

06Indicatori

All 23 food systems indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FOO · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicatoreDominioSub-domainComponenteUnitàLivelliCrosswalks
Prevalenza della denutrizioneIND.FOO.availability.undernourishmentFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
Numero di persone denutriteIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourishedFOOAvailabilityvulnerability{persons}COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210011
Adeguatezza media dell'apporto energetico alimentareIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacyFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21010
Variabilità pro capite della disponibilità alimentareIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variabilityFOOAvailabilityvulnerabilitykcal/d/{person}COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21031
Indice di dipendenza dalle importazioni di cerealiIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependencyFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21035
Insicurezza alimentare moderata o grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severeFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS
Insicurezza alimentare grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severeFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS
Costo di una dieta sanaIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_costFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Popolazione che non può permettersi una dieta sanaIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordableFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Popolazione in fase IPC 3 o superioreIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_populationFOOAcute food insecurityimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2IPC Phase 3+
Quota della popolazione analizzata in fase IPC 3 o superioreIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_shareFOOAcute food insecurityimpact%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2IPC Phase 3+
Fase IPC 3 o superiore, quota della popolazione totaleIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_totalFOOAcute food insecurityimpact%COUNTRY
Presenza di popolazione in fase IPC 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presenceFOOAcute food insecurityimpact{bool}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2IPC Phase 5
Indicatore delle anomalie dei prezzi alimentari (IPC alimentare)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomalyFOOFood priceshazard1COUNTRYSDG 2.c.1
Mesi con prezzi alimentari anormalmente elevatiIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_monthsFOOFood priceshazard%COUNTRY
Spesa per importazioni alimentari, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exportsFOOFood pricesvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21033
Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PILIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdpFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Occupazione in agricoltura, quota dell'occupazione totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_shareFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Resa dei cerealiIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yieldFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerabilitykg/harCOUNTRYWB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Variabilità della resa dei cereali (15 anni)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variabilityFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Prelievi idrici agricoli, quota del totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawalFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Terreni coltivati, quota della superficie terrestreIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.shareFOOAgricultural production and dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index sui terreni coltivatiIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_indexFOOAgricultural production and dependencehazard{score}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
07Quotazione

Food insecurity risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Edizione precedente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composito accoppiato
–
Punteggio di accoppiamento S
–
Pulse, ultima settimana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metodo
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Estrazioni
1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition

Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Nessuna variazione per ora. Dalla seconda edizione in poi, le variazioni rispetto all’edizione precedente sono elencate qui, insieme agli indicatori che le hanno determinate.
08Valori

Country values

FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
Caricamento della mappa
AndorraAntigua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoreCapo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Stati Federati di)GrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts e NevisSanta LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaldiveIsole MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingaporeSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSanta SedeSaint Vincent e GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI9
FAO_FAOSTAT8
SDG4
IPC3
11In tutto il Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.