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Foundry

Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methodology 1.0.0-draft

One grammar, seven instruments

Indicators to domains to pillars to composite, with intervals, classes, coupling, forecasts, scenarios, tails and a separate perception layer. Every method on this page runs in your browser on numbers you choose.

Composite Construction Explorers
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Method 1.0.0-draftValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · The risk chain
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
Every indicator sits on the chain; every value lands in a class with its probability.
451
definizioni degli indicatori
106
composites
7
instruments
1,000
draws per value

01Principi

Eight principles

P1

Una famiglia di indici, non un punteggio monolitico

NXS-GRX (dati canonici, provenienza e rischio) pubblica venti indici di dominio, quattro indici di pilastro, un indice composito e sei strumenti. L’indice composito non compare mai senza tutti i pilastri e i domini accanto, e nessuna dimensione indipendente viene accorpata in modo implicito.

P2

Classi con intervalli, mai classifiche

Ogni valore riporta un intervallo al 90% da un’analisi Monte Carlo su normalizzazione, pesi, imputazione e aggregazione. I paesi sono collocati in classi di rischio con una probabilità di classe dichiarata; le pagine elencano i paesi per nome o codice, mai per valore.

P3

Nessun dato non è zero

Un dato di input mancante è indicato come mancante, un dato imputato è segnalato e un valore è trattenuto quando la copertura scende sotto il minimo del metodo. Un profilo vuoto, una fonte non disponibile e uno zero osservato sono resi in modo diverso.

P4

Ogni valore rimanda alla propria fonte

Ogni valore riporta il rilascio della fonte, la licenza, l’ora di acquisizione, la versione del metodo e la catena di trasformazione (W3C PROV). Una correzione in qualsiasi punto si propaga a ogni valore dipendente ed è registrata pubblicamente.

P5

Misurato, modellato e percepito sono tenuti separati

I glifi di stato distinguono input osservati, riportati, stimati, dedotti, previsti, simulati, di scenario ed esperti. I segnali di percezione formano uno strumento a sé e non sono mai mescolati al rischio misurato.

P6

Sistemico per costruzione

Il rischio autonomo e il rischio corretto per l’accoppiamento sono riportati affiancati, a partire da reti di dipendenza tipizzate in commercio, finanza, energia, alimentazione, infrastrutture e informazione.

P7

Vincolato alla licenza e riproducibile

Una fonte entra in un valore pubblico solo quando la sua licenza ammette tale uso; i valori trattenuti sono conteggiati, non nascosti. Metodi, percorsi del codice, seed e digest sono pubblicati per ogni rilascio, così che ogni valore possa essere ricalcolato.

P8

Informazione, non autorità

NXS-GRX è un’informazione di ricerca e analisi del rischio. Non è un rating, una classificazione ufficiale, un allarme, un benchmark o una consulenza, e non decide mai al posto di un’istituzione.

02Catena di elaborazione

Dalla fonte al profilo

Every indicator declares its place on the risk chain and its polarity, so aggregation never mixes directions silently.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes
Grafo
01Fonti
02Harmonise
03Indicatori
04Sub-indices
05Domini
06Pilastri
07Composite and instruments
08Prodotti

100%
Indice
  1. Flussi di eventi

    SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
    Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
  2. 205 fonti registrate

    SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
    Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
  3. Famiglie di scenari

    SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
    Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
  4. Indagini ed elicitazione

    SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
    Consultazione strutturata di esperti e indagini pubbliche, mantenute separate dal rischio misurato.
  5. Rete di dipendenze

    NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
    Commercio e input-output, finanza e debito, energia, commercio alimentare, infrastrutture e collegamenti informativi.
  6. Serie armonizzate

    HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
    Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
  7. 451 indicatori

    IND · IND · Indicator Standard
    Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
  8. 86 sottoindici

    SUB · SUB · normalised
    Componenti normalizzate, ponderate e aggregate all’interno di ciascun dominio.
  9. 20 indici di dominio

    IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
    Venti indici di dominio con intervalli Monte Carlo e analisi di sensibilità.
  10. Punteggio di accoppiamento sistemico

    COUPLING · COUPLING · S
    Contagio sulla rete delle dipendenze: DebtRank, compensazione e cascate a soglia.
  11. Esposizione a pericoli e minacce

    PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  12. Vulnerabilità umana e dei sistemi

    PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  13. Fragilità macrofinanziaria e strutturale

    PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  14. Mancanza di capacità di risposta e di adattamento

    PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
    Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
  15. Polso

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
    Nowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
  16. Previsione

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
    Probabilità di eventi calibrate con schede di verifica.
  17. Coda

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
    Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
  18. Traiettorie

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
    Fan charts under named scenario families.
  19. Percezione

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
    Gravità percepita e divario di percezione.
  20. NXS-GRX rischio composito

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
  21. 195 profili paese

    PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
    Ogni dominio, pilastro e strumento per paese, mai in classifica.
  22. 54 indici di serie

    SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
    Indici specializzati derivati dagli stessi indici di dominio.
  23. API, tile e file in blocco

    ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
    Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
  24. NXS-GRX rischio accoppiato

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
    Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
03Pilastri

Pillars and domain indices

Pillar values are expert-weighted geometric means of their domain indices (equal weights in the baseline, recorded per release); a pillar needs two thirds of its domains, otherwise it is withheld.

HTE · Esposizione a pericoli e minacce

HAZMulti-hazard exposure indexgeometric complement · equal weights · 5 components · 17 indicators CLIClimate physical hazard indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 16 indicators CONConflict risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 4 components · 15 indicators SPCSpace-weather exposure indexproduct · equal weights · 2 components · 6 indicators CLIClimate transition exposure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 2 components · 5 indicators

VUL · Vulnerabilità umana e dei sistemi

SOCSocio-economic vulnerability indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 18 indicators DEMDisplacement pressure indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators FOOFood insecurity risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators WATWater security risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 4 components · 11 indicators HLTHealth security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 25 indicators ENVEnvironmental pressure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 5 components · 16 indicators ENEEnergy security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators INFInfrastructure fragility indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 24 indicators

MSF · Fragilità macrofinanziaria e strutturale

FISFiscal and public debt risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 7 components · 27 indicators FINFinancial stability risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 7 components · 28 indicators ECOExternal dependence risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 5 components · 22 indicators CYBCyber risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 12 indicators TECTechnology concentration risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators

LCC · Mancanza di capacità di risposta e di adattamento

CRSLack of coping capacity indexgeometric · expert weights · 6 components · 26 indicators GOVGovernance weakness indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 16 indicators
04Composito

Composite and coupled composite

The composite never appears alone: profiles show each pillar and domain beside it.

Composito
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Composito accoppiato
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Incertezza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, imputation, aggregation (geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto); 90% intervals; Sobol first-order and total-order indices per release
Copertura
Each pillar needs two thirds of its domain indices; otherwise the composite is withheld and the pillar shown alone
FIGURA 3 · Simulatore: dai quattro pilastri all’indice composito e all’indice composito accoppiato
Pilastri (da 0 a 10)
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.8
Accoppiamento e incertezza
0.4
0.25
0.4
–
funziona nel vostro browser

Simulatore: Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼ con ogni pilastro limitato inferiormente a 0.1; Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S). Le estrazioni variano pesi, aggregazione e input. Le posizioni sono punti di partenza, non valori NXS-GRX. Simulato sui vostri input; non è un risultato misurato.
05Classi

Classes and intervals, never league tables

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%). Fixed bounds keep classes comparable across editions; intervals show when two countries cannot be told apart. Lists are ordered by name or code.

Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
06Construction

Ten construction steps

The steps follow the OECD/JRC handbook on composite indicators and the statistical audit practice of the JRC Competence Centre on Composite Indicators, referenced for method only.

Theoretical framework Risk chain from hazard to outcome; four pillars; twenty index domains; explicit polarity and risk component for every indicator.
Data selection indicator definitions with SDMX-compatible keys, crosswalks to source code lists, evidence class A–E and the licence register.
Missing data Flagged imputation only at IND layer (dimension mean, indicator median, multiple imputation); modelled share capped per composite; coverage minimum two thirds.
Multivariate analysis Correlation structure, principal components and Cronbach’s alpha per sub-index; incoherent components are re-specified before release.
Normalisation Min–max with fixed goalposts, percentile rank or identity on native 0–10 scales; skew and kurtosis treatment (winsorisation, log) above |skew| 2 and kurtosis 3.5.
Weighting and aggregation Equal or expert weights recorded per composite; geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto, product or geometric-complement aggregation as each definition declares; floor 0.1 before geometric means.
Uncertainty and sensitivity At least 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over the declared alternatives; 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol indices published with every release.
Back to the data Driver decomposition to indicator level; every value opens to its inputs, sources and transformation chain.
Links to other indicators Published crosswalks and correlation checks against established indices, used as validity evidence, never as inputs to be re-weighted.
Visualisation and dissemination Classes and intervals, never league tables; machine access through API, SDMX keys, tiles and bulk files; corrections and versions public.
07Release

One edition, run as a workflow

An edition is a run: the evidence cut freezes, sources pass the licence gate, 451 indicators are computed for 195 profiles, 1,000 draws give the intervals, and two approval gates stand before anything is published.

on: evidence cut

Esecuzione del rilascio dell’edizione

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafo
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indicatori
05Indici
06Indici
07Indici
08Incertezza
09Incertezza
10Valutazione
11Valutazione
12Pubblicare

100%
Cronologia
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Passaggi
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXRegistro PostgreSQL (sicurezza a livello di riga)
  2. Controllo di licenza

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Registro delle licenze
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXstandard degli indicatori
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXstandard degli indicatori
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXKernel di modello testati
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Venti indici di dominio
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXKernel di modello testati
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Rete di dipendenzeKernel di modello testati
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Motore Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Motore Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Kernel di modello testati
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Registro PostgreSQL (sicurezza a livello di riga)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Tile vettorialiDeposito su Zenodo
Artefatti
Artefatto Attività Chi Fase
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Controllo di licenza Registro delle licenze Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indicatori Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indicatori
SUB values Sub-indices Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indici
IDX values Indici di dominio Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indici
S per country Coupling score Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indici
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Motore Monte Carlo Incertezza
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Motore Monte Carlo Incertezza
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Valutazione
Release decision Steward review Custodi Valutazione
Edizione Profiles and series Foundry Pubblicare
Tile Tiles and bulk files Foundry Pubblicare
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Pubblicare
CompletatoIn corsoIn attesa di approvazioneIn codaGate di approvazioneAttività MatrixSei qui
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
08Aggregation

Five aggregation shapes

Try them on the fiscal and public debt index: switch the aggregation and watch the class and interval move.

Aggregation Cosa fa Domain indices using it
geometric Weighted geometric mean after a floor of 0.1: partial compensation, so weakness in one component cannot be fully offset by strength in another. Rischio di finanza pubblica e debito pubblico · Pericolo fisico climatico · Rischio per la sicurezza idrica · Rischio per la sicurezza sanitaria · Vulnerabilità socioeconomica · Rischio per la sicurezza energetica · Fragilità delle infrastrutture · Rischio cyber · Mancanza di capacità di risposta
Mazziotta–Pareto Mean adjusted by the spread across components (non-compensatory): unbalanced profiles read as riskier than balanced ones with the same mean. Rischio per la stabilità finanziaria · Rischio di insicurezza alimentare · Rischio di conflitto
arithmetic Weighted arithmetic mean: full compensation, used where components are substitutes. Rischio di dipendenza esterna · Esposizione alla transizione climatica · Pressione ambientale · Pressione degli sfollamenti · Debolezza della governance · Rischio di concentrazione tecnologica
geometric complement Complement of the geometric mean of complements: any single high exposure lifts the index, as for multi-hazard exposure. Esposizione multi-pericolo
product Product of normalised components: risk exists only where all components are present, as for space-weather exposure. Esposizione alla meteorologia spaziale
FIG 4 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser

Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
09Missing data

Nessun dato non è zero

Imputation happens only at the indicator layer and is always flagged: dimension mean, indicator median or multiple imputation, as each definition declares. Each composite caps the share of its weight that may rest on modelled or imputed inputs and withholds its value below its coverage minimum. Coverage is published as a vector per country and indicator, never as a single complete flag; fragile and small-island states are where gaps cluster, so their coverage is shown first.

10Stato

Status and value states

Glifo Stato Medie
● OSSERVATO Misurato direttamente e pubblicato dalla fonte
□ DICHIARATO Riportato o dichiarato da un editore, non misurato in modo indipendente
◆ STIMATO Stimato o modellato con un metodo dichiarato
▲ DEDOTTO Dedotto da segnali correlati
◇ PREVISIONE Affermazione probabilistica su un periodo futuro
◈ SIMULATO Output di una simulazione o di un insieme di eventi stocastici
○ SCENARIO Condizionato a uno scenario specifico, non una previsione
◎ CONTRIBUTO DI ESPERTI Giudizio strutturato di esperti
Value state Medie
PUBLISHED Pubblicato in un’edizione con intervallo, classe e fonti
NO_DATA Nessun input ammesso; non è uno zero
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE Copertura sotto il minimo del metodo; valore trattenuto
WITHHELD La licenza di un dato di input o il filtro di sicurezza pubblica non ne consente la visualizzazione pubblica; conteggiato
DEGRADED Pubblicato con una limitazione di qualità dichiarata
11Strumento

Polso

Domanda
Che cosa è cambiato dall'ultimo taglio strutturale?
Cadenza
Stima settimanale del presente, guidata dagli eventi tra una pubblicazione e l'altra
Metodo
Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model over admitted event streams (multi-hazard alerts, Earth observation, conflict events, prices, shipping, market stress), expressed as a standardised anomaly against each country’s own history.
Prodotti
  • Pulse anomaly by domain
  • Signals for review with their sources
  • Threshold crossings for subscribers
Status of outputs
OSSERVATODEDOTTO
Pulse publishes with the first edition. Weekly anomalies by country and domain will appear here as a timeline, each signal with its sources and status.
12Strumento

Previsione

Domanda
Quanto sono probabili determinati esiti avversi in un orizzonte dichiarato?
Cadenza
Mensile, orizzonti di 1, 3, 12 e 36 mesi
Metodo
Calibrated probabilistic ensembles (statistical, machine learning and structured expert elicitation) for defined events: conflict onset and escalation, acute food insecurity phase shifts, debt distress signals, disaster losses, displacement surges. Verified with Brier skill, reliability diagrams, ROC and CRPS against outcomes.
Prodotti
  • Event probabilities with credible intervals
  • Forecast verification scorecards
  • Back-test record per model version
Status of outputs
PREVISIONE
FIG 7 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
–
funziona nel vostro browser

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
13Strumento

Traiettorie

Domanda
Come evolve il rischio in futuri alternativi al 2030, al 2050 e al 2100?
Cadenza
Ogni edizione annuale
Metodo
Pillar and domain values projected under SSP × warming-level combinations and central-bank-network transition scenario families (used as labelled scenario structures), with demographic, urbanisation, governance and conflict pathways; fan charts, not point paths.
Prodotti
  • Fan charts per domain and pillar
  • Scenario cascades
  • Adaptation and transition levers
Status of outputs
SCENARIOSIMULATED
FIG 8 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
14Strumento

Coda

Domanda
Che aspetto ha l'estremità rara e grave della distribuzione?
Cadenza
Ogni edizione annuale, aggiornata in base agli eventi
Metodo
Event loss tables and year loss tables, exceedance-probability curves, probable maximum loss at 1-in-100 and 1-in-250, expected shortfall, compound-event copulas and a register of low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks.
Prodotti
  • Exceedance curves and return-period losses where loss can be modelled
  • Protection-gap readings
  • Catastrophic and frontier risk register
Status of outputs
SIMULATOMODELLATO
FIG 9 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
funziona nel vostro browser

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
15Strumento

Accoppiamento

Domanda
Dove si trasmette il rischio tra sistemi e confini?
Cadenza
Ogni edizione annuale, aggiornamento trimestrale della rete
Metodo
Typed multi-layer dependency network (trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and digital links); contagion estimated with DebtRank, Eisenberg–Noe clearing and threshold cascades; systemic importance and exposure scores per country and system.
Prodotti
  • Punteggio di accoppiamento sistemico S
  • Coupled composite beside standalone
  • Transmission paths with status and references
Status of outputs
STIMATOSIMULATO
FIG 10 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
Acqua
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 11 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
–
funziona nel vostro browser

AcquaEnergiaCiboSaluteBiodiversitàFinanzaCommercioInfrastruttureDigitalSicurezza

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
16Strumento

Percezione

Domanda
Dove il rischio percepito differisce da quello misurato?
Cadenza
Indagini annuali presso esperti e pubblico
Metodo
Structured expert elicitation and public risk surveys, published as their own dimension with a perception-versus-measured gap per domain; never blended into the composite.
Prodotti
  • Perceived severity by domain and horizon
  • Perception gap
  • Respondent coverage statement
Status of outputs
CONTRIBUTO DI ESPERTIDICHIARATO
Perception publishes with the first survey wave. Perceived severity by domain and horizon, with the perception gap against measured values.
17Geography

Six geographic levels

G0GlobalThe global series aggregates country values population- and exposure-weighted and reads the global systems directly. G1Country195 country profiles: the 193 UN member states and the 2 UN observer states. G2First administrative level (ADM1)Where boundaries and inputs admit; boundary versions are recorded. G3Second administrative level and below (ADM2+)Selected indicators and hazard layers. G4Cities and functional areasCities, river basins, coasts, corridors and islands. G5Hexagonal grid (H3)Resolution 4 to 7 for national views, finer for local layers; one fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
18Validation

Validation in public

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes: disaster mortality and losses, acute food insecurity phases, conflict onset and fatalities, debt distress episodes, displacement.

Forecast verification with Brier skill score

Forecast verification with Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC area and CRPS, published per model version.

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure, coherence, uncertainty and rank stability)

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations, so a value can be recomputed by anyone.

Country right of reply and public correction log

Country right of reply and public correction log.

19Revisions

Revisions and corrections

Methodology carries a semantic version; a change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow, and a correction propagates to every dependent value with a public log entry.

BozzaCalcolatoVincolato alle evidenzeRevisionatoApprovato per il rilascioPubblicatoCorrettoSostituito
20Vintages

Point-in-time vintages and validation metrics

Validation follows the composite-indicator audit practice of the JRC and the early-warning literature (Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999; Alessi and Detken 2011).

Vintages

Nothing is overwritten

Every edition and every correction is a vintage with its snapshot, frozen inputs and method version. A past value stays retrievable as it was published, so any study can be rerun on the information available at the time.

Revisions

Revisions are measured

Each indicator publishes its revision record between vintages, as the mean absolute revision and its direction, so a reader can see which inputs move after first release.

Stabilità

Rank reversal is tested

Adding or removing a country or an indicator must not reorder the others beyond the uncertainty already reported; the test is part of each edition’s uncertainty analysis.

Allerta precoce

Signals are back-tested

Forecast and trigger instruments are scored out of sample, in pseudo real time: AUROC with its interval, noise-to-signal ratio, usefulness against the cost of a missed event, and the Brier score for probabilities.

Comparability

Breaks are declared

A method change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow; otherwise the series carries a declared break and comparisons across it are refused.

Lab

Try the methods yourself

The Index Lab runs these construction and validation methods on your own numbers in the browser.

21Reproducibility

Recompute any value

Each release publishes definitions, method versions, code paths, random seeds and content digests; every kernel is tested against hand-derived golden values.

Indicator Standard
451 indicators · 106 composites · 501 crosswalks
Hazard Standard (pericoli)
14 domains · 120 families · 905 hazards · 281 HIPs 2025 hazards
model registry
670 methods in 23 fabrics
Release
Each edition is deposited with its definitions, method version and inputs, with a DOI

Modulo

Comment on the methodology

Open consultation on normalisation, weighting, aggregation, imputation, uncertainty and validation; every comment receives a disposition in the consultation record.

  1. 01CompilaI campi contrassegnati (obbligatorio) sono necessari; tutto il resto aiuta la valutazione.
  2. 02RiferimentoRicevi un riferimento sullo schermo; la registrazione è conservata nel database WordPress di questo sito.
  3. 03ValutazioneL'esito è registrato pubblicamente. I recapiti restano su questo sito e non vengono mai pubblicati né condivisi.
Form · grx-consult

Questo modulo si aprirà qui non appena sarà attivato. Fino ad allora, invialo tramite il gateway Nexus Reports.

Disagree with a method?

Every method comment is answered in the review record, and accepted changes are versioned and back-cast.

Comment on the method Try the Index Lab

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

I segnali Pulse e le probabilità di previsione sono informazioni per l'esame delle autorità competenti, mai allerte pubbliche; le allerte ufficiali provengono solo dalle autorità incaricate.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.