Indice di esposizione alla transizione climatica
0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
arithmetic
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
2 components
5 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
Transition and physical risk move in opposite directions across scenarios; keeping a separate index prevents one masking the other.
- Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, natural gas and coal rents (production value at world prices less production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIndicator · IND · %Exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC section 3) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIndicator · IND · %Fiscal cost of explicit subsidies that hold fossil-fuel consumer prices below supply cost, as a percentage of GDP.
- Emissioni di gas serra pro capiteIndicator · IND · t/a/personTotal greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF divided by mid-year population, in tonnes of CO2-equivalent per person.
- Intensità di carbonio del PILIndicator · IND · kg/USDCarbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF per unit of GDP at constant 2015 US dollars, in kilograms of CO2-equivalent per dollar.
- Transition exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 66.7%Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.
- Emissions intensity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.
- Indice di esposizione alla transizione climaticaDomain index · IDX · arithmetic0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
- Esposizione a pericoli e minaccePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertezza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- NGFS Phase V scenarios; IFRS S2 (transition risk concepts); OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
2 components, 5 indicators
Transition exposure sub-index w 2
Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | % | Class B | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 40.0% |
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 40.0% |
Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | % | Class C | imf-fossil-fuel-subsidies, iea-fossil-fuel-subsidies, oecd-fossil-fuel-support | 20.0% |
Emissions intensity sub-index w 1
Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Emissioni di gas serra pro capiteIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | t/a/{person} | Class C | wb-wdi, edgar | 50.0% |
Intensità di carbonio del PILIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | kg/[USD] | Class C | wb-wdi, edgar | 50.0% |
Clima
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | Indicatori |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
All 31 climate indicators
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Emissioni totali di gas serra escluso il LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Emissioni di gas serra pro capiteIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
Intensità di carbonio del PILIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
Obiettivo di emissioni NDC 2030 per l'intera economiaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Piano nazionale di adattamento presentatoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Prontezza sociale per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Finanza internazionale per l'adattamento ricevuta pro capiteIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
Climate transition exposure index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edizione precedente
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composito accoppiato
- –
- Punteggio di accoppiamento S
- –
- Pulse, ultima settimana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metodo
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Estrazioni
- 1,000
Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.
Country values
- Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 6 |
EPI | 1 |
SDG | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Cita e riutilizza
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.