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⁨Foundry⁩
⁨The Global Risks Index⁩
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

شاخص مواجهه با گذار اقلیمی

0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITIONEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.transition.transition_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

عدم قطعیت

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

ساختار

2 components

5 leaf indicators

پوشش

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
5
leaf indicators
2
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
10
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Transition and physical risk move in opposite directions across scenarios; keeping a separate index prevents one masking the other.

computation
How Climate transition exposure is computed
Graph10 nodes
گراف
01شاخص‌ها
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04رکن
05ترکیبی
100%
نمایه
  1. رانت سوخت‌های فسیلی، سهم از GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, natural gas and coal rents (production value at world prices less production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  2. صادرات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالا
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC section 3) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  3. یارانه‌های آشکار سوخت فسیلی، سهم از GDP
    Indicator · IND · %
    Fiscal cost of explicit subsidies that hold fossil-fuel consumer prices below supply cost, as a percentage of GDP.
  4. انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای سرانه
    Indicator · IND · t/a/person
    Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF divided by mid-year population, in tonnes of CO2-equivalent per person.
  5. شدت کربن GDP
    Indicator · IND · kg/USD
    Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF per unit of GDP at constant 2015 US dollars, in kilograms of CO2-equivalent per dollar.
  6. Transition exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 66.7%
    Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.
  7. Emissions intensity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.
  8. شاخص مواجهه با گذار اقلیمی
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  9. مواجهه با مخاطره و تهدید
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  10. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
اجرا نشدهدر حال انجامانجام شد
FIG 2. 5 indicators, 2 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate transition exposure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
در مرورگر شما اجرا می‌شود
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03روش

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
عدم قطعیت
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
NGFS Phase V scenarios; IFRS S2 (transition risk concepts); OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
بسیار کم0.0 تا < 2.0
کم2.0 تا < 3.5
متوسط3.5 تا < 5.0
زیاد5.0 تا < 6.5
بسیار زیاد6.5 تا 10.0
04Components

2 components, 5 indicators

Transition exposure sub-index w 2

Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
رانت سوخت‌های فسیلی، سهم از GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp%Class Bwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations40.0%
صادرات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالاIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share%Class Awb-wdi, un-comtrade40.0%
یارانه‌های آشکار سوخت فسیلی، سهم از GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp%Class Cimf-fossil-fuel-subsidies, iea-fossil-fuel-subsidies, oecd-fossil-fuel-support20.0%

Emissions intensity sub-index w 1

Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای سرانهIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitat/a/{person}Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
شدت کربن GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpkg/[USD]Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
05حوزه

اقلیم

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainشاخص‌ها
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06شاخص‌ها

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
نشانگرحوزهSub-domainجزءواحدسطوحCrosswalks
گرمایش سطحی از دوران پیشاصنعتیIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
تغییر بارش سالانهIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
نرخ افزایش نسبی سطح دریاIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
گرم‌ترین روز سال (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
سهم روزهای گرم (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
تغییر در روزهای بسیار گرم (35 °C یا بیشتر)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
مدت دوره‌های گرم (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
پرباران‌ترین روز سال (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
پرباران‌ترین پنج روز سال (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
بارش روزهای بسیار مرطوب (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
طولانی‌ترین دورهٔ خشک (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesexposure%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
گرمایش پیش‌بینی‌شده از دوران پیشاصنعتیIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ دمای گرم‌ترین روزIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ بارش پرباران‌ترین پنج روزIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
افزایش نسبی پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ سطح دریاIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
جمعیت پایین‌تر از تراز آیندهٔ سیلاب ساحلی 100 ساله، سهمIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
کل انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای بدون LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای سرانهIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsexposuret/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
شدت کربن GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
رانت سوخت‌های فسیلی، سهم از GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
صادرات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالاIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
یارانه‌های آشکار سوخت فسیلی، سهم از GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
هدف انتشار کل اقتصاد در NDC 2030IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
ارائهٔ برنامهٔ ملی سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
آمادگی اقتصادی برای سرمایه‌گذاری در سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
آمادگی حکمرانی برای سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
آمادگی اجتماعی برای سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
تأمین مالی بین‌المللی سازگاری دریافتی سرانهIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity[USD]COUNTRY
07Quote

Climate transition exposure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate transition exposure index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
–
Range since 2016
–
Coupled composite
–
Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
روش
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
Climate transition exposure index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
آفریقا54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
قارهٔ آمریکا35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
آسیا48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
اروپا44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
اقیانوسیه14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
هنوز هیچ جابه‌جایی‌ای نیست. از ویراست دوم به بعد، تغییرات نسبت به ویراست پیشین همراه با نشانگرهایی که آن‌ها را رقم زده‌اند در اینجا فهرست می‌شوند.
08مقادیر

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate transition exposure index: countries (values when released)
در حال بارگذاری نقشه
آندوراآنتیگوا و باربودابحرینباربادوسکومورکیپ ورددومینیکامیکرونزی (ایالات فدرال)گرناداکیریباتیسنت کیتس و نویسسنت لوسیالیختن‌اشتاینموناکومالدیوجزایر مارشالمالتموریسنائوروپالائوسنگاپورسان مارینوسائوتومه و پرنسیپسیشلتونگاتووالوواتیکانسنت وینسنت و گرنادین‌هاساموآ
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
راهنمای مشاهدات
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09مجموعه‌ها

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk. XT-13Energy transition technologiesBatteries, hydrogen, grid storage, renewables and their supply chains, failure modes and transition risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI6
EPI1
SDG1
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12استناد

استناد و استفادهٔ دوباره

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate transition exposure index (GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/transition-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000113.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

وضعیت

روش‌شناسی، ساختار و تعاریف The Global Risks Index پیش‌نویس کاری مقدماتی (2026) است که برای بررسی و اظهارنظر منتشر شده و برای اجرا نیست. هیچ مقداری نمایش داده نمی‌شود تا ویراستی از یک برش شواهد تحت حکمرانی منتشر شود؛ آنگاه مقادیر همراه با بازه‌ها، رده‌ها، منابع و مسیر اصلاح خود ارائه می‌شوند. شبیه‌سازها روش‌های منتشرشده را بر روی اعدادی که شما برمی‌گزینید اجرا می‌کنند و هرگز مقداری از NXS-GRX نشان نمی‌دهند.

آنچه ⁨NXS-GRX⁩ نیست

⁨NXS-GRX⁩ اطلاعات پژوهشی و تحلیلی ریسک است. رتبه‌بندی اعتباری یا ⁨ESG⁩ نیست و از هیچ مقیاس رتبه‌بندی استفاده نمی‌کند، شاخص مرجع ابزارهای مالی نیست، آمار رسمی نیست، هشدار اضطراری یا طبقه‌بندی رسمی نیست و توصیه نیست. نباید برای ارزیابی اشخاص حقیقی به کار رود. طبقه‌های ریسک بازه‌هایی روی یک مقیاس منتشرشده‌اند، هرگز رتبه‌بندی کشورها یا افراد نیستند.

نهادها و منابع

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

هر مقدار انتساب منابع خود را در بر دارد و آن منابع پروانه‌های خود را حفظ می‌کنند. نام‌های بیرونی تنها برای میان‌کنش‌پذیری ذکر می‌شوند. متون نگاشتهٔ Nexus برای انتشار با پروانهٔ CC BY 4.0 در نظر گرفته شده‌اند.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.