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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Indeks keterpaparan transisi iklim

0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITIONEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.transition.transition_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Ketidakpastian

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Struktur

2 components

5 leaf indicators

Cakupan

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
5
leaf indicators
2
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
10
series read it
01Konstruksi

From indicators to the composite

Transition and physical risk move in opposite directions across scenarios; keeping a separate index prevents one masking the other.

computation
How Climate transition exposure is computed
Graph10 nodes
Grafik
01Indikator
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Komposit
100%
Indeks
  1. Rente bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, natural gas and coal rents (production value at world prices less production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Ekspor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap ekspor barang
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC section 3) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  3. Subsidi eksplisit bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Fiscal cost of explicit subsidies that hold fossil-fuel consumer prices below supply cost, as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Emisi gas rumah kaca per kapita
    Indicator · IND · t/a/person
    Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF divided by mid-year population, in tonnes of CO2-equivalent per person.
  5. Intensitas karbon PDB
    Indicator · IND · kg/USD
    Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF per unit of GDP at constant 2015 US dollars, in kilograms of CO2-equivalent per dollar.
  6. Transition exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 66.7%
    Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.
  7. Emissions intensity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.
  8. Indeks keterpaparan transisi iklim
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  9. Paparan bahaya dan ancaman
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  10. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. 5 indicators, 2 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate transition exposure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
berjalan di peramban Anda
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Ketidakpastian
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
NGFS Phase V scenarios; IFRS S2 (transition risk concepts); OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
Sangat rendah0.0 hingga < 2.0
Rendah2.0 hingga < 3.5
Sedang3.5 hingga < 5.0
Tinggi5.0 hingga < 6.5
Sangat tinggi6.5 hingga 10.0
04Components

2 components, 5 indicators

Transition exposure sub-index w 2

Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Rente bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp%Class Bwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations40.0%
Ekspor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share%Class Awb-wdi, un-comtrade40.0%
Subsidi eksplisit bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp%Class Cimf-fossil-fuel-subsidies, iea-fossil-fuel-subsidies, oecd-fossil-fuel-support20.0%

Emissions intensity sub-index w 1

Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Emisi gas rumah kaca per kapitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitat/a/{person}Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
Intensitas karbon PDBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpkg/[USD]Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
05Domain

Iklim

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainIndikator
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Indikator

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndikatorDomainSub-domainKomponenUnitTingkatCrosswalks
Pemanasan permukaan sejak masa praindustriIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Perubahan curah hujan tahunanIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Laju kenaikan muka laut relatifIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Hari terpanas dalam setahun (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Porsi hari hangat (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Perubahan jumlah hari sangat panas (35 °C atau lebih)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Durasi periode hangat (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Lima hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Curah hujan dari hari sangat basah (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Periode kering terpanjang (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesketerpaparan%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Proyeksi pemanasan sejak masa praindustriIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Proyeksi perubahan suhu hari terpanasIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Proyeksi perubahan curah hujan lima hari terbasahIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Proyeksi kenaikan muka laut relatifIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Penduduk di bawah tingkat banjir pesisir 100 tahunan di masa depan, porsiIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsketerpaparan%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Total emisi gas rumah kaca tanpa LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsketerpaparanMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emisi gas rumah kaca per kapitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsketerpaparant/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensitas karbon PDBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsketerpaparankg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsketerpaparanMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rente bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Ekspor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Subsidi eksplisit bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
Target emisi seluruh perekonomian NDC 2030IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Rencana adaptasi nasional telah diserahkanIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Kesiapan ekonomi untuk investasi adaptasiIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Kesiapan tata kelola untuk adaptasiIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Kesiapan sosial untuk adaptasiIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Pendanaan adaptasi internasional yang diterima per kapitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif[USD]COUNTRY
07Kuotasi

Climate transition exposure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate transition exposure index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Edisi sebelumnya
–
Range since 2016
–
Komposit terkait
–
Skor keterkaitan S
–
Pulse, minggu terakhir
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sampel
1,000
Climate transition exposure index, world, by edition

Belum ada nilai yang diterbitkan. Edisi pertama menggambar riwayat di sini dengan pita interval dan batas kelas.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrika54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amerika35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asia48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Eropa44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Oseania14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Belum ada pergerakan. Perubahan sejak edisi sebelumnya dicantumkan di sini mulai edisi kedua, beserta indikator yang mendorongnya.
08Nilai

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate transition exposure index: countries (values when released)
Memuat peta
AndorraAntigua dan BarbudaBahrainBarbadosKomoroTanjung VerdeDominikaMikronesiaGrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts dan NevisSaint LuciaLiechtensteinMonakoMaladewaKepulauan MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSao Tome dan PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluVatikanSaint Vincent dan GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Ubin peta
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Kunci observasi
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Seri

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk. XT-13Energy transition technologiesBatteries, hydrogen, grid storage, renewables and their supply chains, failure modes and transition risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI6
EPI1
SDG1
11Di seluruh Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate transition exposure index (GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/transition-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000113.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Status

Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.

Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.

Lembaga dan sumber

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Setiap nilai memuat atribusi sumbernya, yang tetap memiliki lisensinya masing-masing. Nama-nama eksternal dikutip semata-mata untuk interoperabilitas. Teks yang disusun Nexus direncanakan berlisensi CC BY 4.0 saat dirilis.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.