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Le Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Indice d'exposition à la transition climatique

0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITIONEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.transition.transition_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertitude

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Structure

2 components

5 leaf indicators

Couverture

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
5
leaf indicators
2
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
10
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Transition and physical risk move in opposite directions across scenarios; keeping a separate index prevents one masking the other.

computation
How Climate transition exposure is computed
Graph10 nodes
Graphe
01Indicateurs
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilier
05Composite
100%
Liste
  1. Rentes des combustibles fossiles, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, natural gas and coal rents (production value at world prices less production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Exportations de carburants, part des exportations de marchandises
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC section 3) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  3. Subventions explicites aux combustibles fossiles, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Fiscal cost of explicit subsidies that hold fossil-fuel consumer prices below supply cost, as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Émissions de gaz à effet de serre par habitant
    Indicator · IND · t/a/person
    Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF divided by mid-year population, in tonnes of CO2-equivalent per person.
  5. Intensité carbone du PIB
    Indicator · IND · kg/USD
    Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF per unit of GDP at constant 2015 US dollars, in kilograms of CO2-equivalent per dollar.
  6. Transition exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 66.7%
    Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.
  7. Emissions intensity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.
  8. Indice d'exposition à la transition climatique
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  9. Exposition aux aléas et menaces
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  10. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. 5 indicators, 2 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate transition exposure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
s’exécute dans votre navigateur
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Méthode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Incertitude
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
NGFS Phase V scenarios; IFRS S2 (transition risk concepts); OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
Très faible0,0 à < 2,0
Faible2,0 à < 3,5
Moyen3,5 à < 5,0
Élevé5,0 à < 6,5
Très élevé6.5 à 10.0
04Composantes

2 components, 5 indicators

Transition exposure sub-index w 2

Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Rentes des combustibles fossiles, part du PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp%Class Bwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations40.0%
Exportations de carburants, part des exportations de marchandisesIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share%Class Awb-wdi, un-comtrade40.0%
Subventions explicites aux combustibles fossiles, part du PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp%Class Cimf-fossil-fuel-subsidies, iea-fossil-fuel-subsidies, oecd-fossil-fuel-support20.0%

Emissions intensity sub-index w 1

Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Émissions de gaz à effet de serre par habitantIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitat/a/{person}Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
Intensité carbone du PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpkg/[USD]Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
05Domaine

Climat

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainIndicateurs
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Indicateurs

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicateurDomaineSub-domainComposantUnitéNiveauxCrosswalks
Réchauffement en surface depuis l'ère préindustrielleIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Évolution des précipitations annuellesIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Taux d'élévation relative du niveau de la merIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Jour le plus chaud de l'année (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Part des jours chauds (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Évolution des jours très chauds (35 °C ou plus)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Durée des périodes chaudes (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Jour le plus pluvieux de l'année (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Cinq jours les plus pluvieux de l'année (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Précipitations des jours très pluvieux (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Plus longue période sèche (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesexposure%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Réchauffement projeté depuis l'ère préindustrielleIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Évolution projetée de la température du jour le plus chaudIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Évolution projetée des précipitations des cinq jours les plus pluvieuxIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Élévation relative projetée du niveau de la merIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Population sous le futur niveau de crue côtière de période de retour 100 ans, partIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Émissions totales de gaz à effet de serre hors UTCATFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Émissions de gaz à effet de serre par habitantIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsexposuret/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensité carbone du PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rentes des combustibles fossiles, part du PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Exportations de carburants, part des exportations de marchandisesIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Subventions explicites aux combustibles fossiles, part du PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
Objectif d'émissions de la CDN 2030 pour l'ensemble de l'économieIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Plan national d'adaptation soumisIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Préparation économique à l'investissement dans l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Préparation de la gouvernance à l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Préparation sociale à l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Financement international de l'adaptation reçu par habitantIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity[USD]COUNTRY
07Cotation

Climate transition exposure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate transition exposure index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Édition précédente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composite couplé
–
Score de couplage S
–
Pulse, dernière semaine
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Méthode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Tirages
1,000
Climate transition exposure index, world, by edition

Aucune valeur publiée pour l'instant. La première édition trace ici l'historique avec sa bande d'intervalle et les bornes de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrique54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amériques35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asie48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Europe44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Océanie14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Aucune évolution pour l'instant. Les changements depuis l'édition précédente seront listés ici à partir de la deuxième édition, avec les indicateurs qui les ont déterminés.
08Valeurs

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate transition exposure index: countries (values when released)
Chargement de la carte
AndorreAntigua-et-BarbudaBahreïnBarbadeComoresCabo VerdeDominiqueMicronésie (États fédérés de)GrenadeKiribatiSaint-Kitts-et-NevisSainte-LucieLiechtensteinMonacoMaldivesÎles MarshallMalteMauriceNauruPalaosSingapourSaint-MarinSao Tomé-et-PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSaint-SiègeSaint-Vincent-et-les GrenadinesSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tuiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Clé d'observation
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk. XT-13Energy transition technologiesBatteries, hydrogen, grid storage, renewables and their supply chains, failure modes and transition risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI6
EPI1
SDG1
11Dans le Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate transition exposure index (GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/transition-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000113.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.