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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

İklim geçişine maruziyet endeksi

0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).

İnşaat Simülatör Göstergeler
Page GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITIONEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.transition.transition_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Belirsizlik

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Yapı

2 components

5 leaf indicators

Kapsam

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
5
leaf indicators
2
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
10
series read it
01İnşaat

From indicators to the composite

Transition and physical risk move in opposite directions across scenarios; keeping a separate index prevents one masking the other.

computation
How Climate transition exposure is computed
Graph10 nodes
Grafik
01Göstergeler
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Sütun
05Bileşik
100%
Dizin
  1. Fosil yakıt rantları, GSYH payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, natural gas and coal rents (production value at world prices less production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Yakıt ihracatı, mal ihracatının payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC section 3) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  3. Açık fosil yakıt sübvansiyonları, GSYH payı
    Indicator · IND · %
    Fiscal cost of explicit subsidies that hold fossil-fuel consumer prices below supply cost, as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Kişi başına sera gazı emisyonları
    Indicator · IND · t/a/person
    Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF divided by mid-year population, in tonnes of CO2-equivalent per person.
  5. GSYH'nin karbon yoğunluğu
    Indicator · IND · kg/USD
    Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF per unit of GDP at constant 2015 US dollars, in kilograms of CO2-equivalent per dollar.
  6. Transition exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 66.7%
    Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.
  7. Emissions intensity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.
  8. İklim geçişine maruziyet endeksi
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  9. Tehlike ve tehdit maruziyeti
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  10. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
ÇalıştırılmadıSürüyorTamamlandı
FIG 2. 5 indicators, 2 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simülatör

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate transition exposure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
tarayıcınızda çalışır
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Yöntem

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Belirsizlik
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
NGFS Phase V scenarios; IFRS S2 (transition risk concepts); OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
Çok düşük0.0 ile < 2.0 arası
Düşük2.0 ile < 3.5 arası
Orta3.5 ile < 5.0 arası
Yüksek5.0 ile < 6.5 arası
Çok yüksek6.5 ile 10.0
04Components

2 components, 5 indicators

Transition exposure sub-index w 2

Composite of fossil-fuel rents, fuel export share and explicit fossil-fuel subsidies; carbon intensity sits in the emissions sub-index to avoid double counting.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Fosil yakıt rantları, GSYH payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp%Class Bwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations40.0%
Yakıt ihracatı, mal ihracatının payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share%Class Awb-wdi, un-comtrade40.0%
Açık fosil yakıt sübvansiyonları, GSYH payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp%Class Cimf-fossil-fuel-subsidies, iea-fossil-fuel-subsidies, oecd-fossil-fuel-support20.0%

Emissions intensity sub-index w 1

Composite of greenhouse gas emissions per capita and carbon intensity of GDP.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Kişi başına sera gazı emisyonlarıIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitat/a/{person}Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
GSYH'nin karbon yoğunluğuIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpkg/[USD]Class Cwb-wdi, edgar50.0%
05Alan

İklim

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainGöstergeler
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Göstergeler

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
GöstergeAlanSub-domainBileşenBirimDüzeylerCrosswalks
Sanayi öncesinden bu yana yüzey ısınmasıIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Yıllık yağıştaki değişimIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Göreli deniz seviyesi yükselme hızıIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Yılın en sıcak günü (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Sıcak günlerin payı (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Çok sıcak günlerdeki değişim (35 °C veya üzeri)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Sıcak dönem süresi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Yılın en yağışlı günü (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Yılın en yağışlı beş günü (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Çok yağışlı günlerden gelen yağış (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
En uzun kurak dönem (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesmaruziyet%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Sanayi öncesinden bu yana öngörülen ısınmaIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
En sıcak gün sıcaklığında öngörülen değişimIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
En yağışlı beş günlük yağışta öngörülen değişimIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Öngörülen göreli deniz seviyesi yükselmesiIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Gelecekteki 100 yıllık kıyı taşkını seviyesinin altındaki nüfus, payIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsmaruziyet%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
LULUCF hariç toplam sera gazı emisyonlarıIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsmaruziyetMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Kişi başına sera gazı emisyonlarıIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsmaruziyett/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
GSYH'nin karbon yoğunluğuIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsmaruziyetkg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsmaruziyetMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Fosil yakıt rantları, GSYH payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Yakıt ihracatı, mal ihracatının payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Açık fosil yakıt sübvansiyonları, GSYH payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 ekonomi geneli emisyon hedefiIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Ulusal uyum planı sunulduIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Uyum yatırımı için ekonomik hazırlıkIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Uyum için yönetişim hazırlığıIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Uyum için toplumsal hazırlıkIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Kişi başına alınan uluslararası uyum finansmanıIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi[USD]COUNTRY
07Gösterge değeri

Climate transition exposure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate transition exposure index, world
–
Değerler baskıyla yayımlanır; aralık, sınıf ve değişim burada görünür.
Önceki baskı
–
Range since 2016
–
Bağlantılı bileşik
–
Bağlantı puanı S
–
Pulse, son hafta
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Yöntem
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Çekilişler
1,000
Climate transition exposure index, world, by edition

Henüz yayımlanmış değer yok. İlk baskı, geçmişi burada aralık bandı ve sınıf sınırlarıyla çizer.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrika54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amerika35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asya48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Avrupa44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Okyanusya14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Henüz değişiklik yok. Önceki sürümden bu yana olan değişiklikler, ikinci sürümden itibaren bunlara yol açan göstergelerle birlikte burada listelenir.
08Değerler

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate transition exposure index: countries (values when released)
Harita yükleniyor
AndorraAntigua ve BarbudaBahreynBarbadosKomorlarYeşil Burun AdalarıDominikaMikronezyaGrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts ve NevisSaint LuciaLihtenştaynMonakoMaldivlerMarshall AdalarıMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapurSan MarinoSão Tomé ve PríncipeSeyşellerTongaTuvaluVatikanSaint Vincent ve GrenadinlerSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Döşemeler
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Gözlem anahtarı
nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Seriler

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-02Global EnergySupply adequacy, import dependency, grid reliability, affordability, extreme-weather exposure, critical minerals and transition pathways. GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk. XT-13Energy transition technologiesBatteries, hydrogen, grid storage, renewables and their supply chains, failure modes and transition risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI6
EPI1
SDG1
11Nexus genelinde

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Atıf

Atıf ve yeniden kullanım

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate transition exposure index (GRX-IDX-CLI-TRANSITION), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/transition-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000113.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Durum

The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.

NXS-GRX ne değildir

NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.

Kurumlar ve kaynaklar

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.