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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methodology 1.0.0-draft

One grammar, seven instruments

Indicators to domains to pillars to composite, with intervals, classes, coupling, forecasts, scenarios, tails and a separate perception layer. Every method on this page runs in your browser on numbers you choose.

Composite Construction Explorers
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Method 1.0.0-draftValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · The risk chain
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
Sangat rendah0.0 hingga < 2.0
Rendah2.0 hingga < 3.5
Sedang3.5 hingga < 5.0
Tinggi5.0 hingga < 6.5
Sangat tinggi6.5 hingga 10.0
Every indicator sits on the chain; every value lands in a class with its probability.
451
definisi indikator
106
composites
7
instruments
1,000
draws per value

01Prinsip

Eight principles

P1

Famili indeks, bukan satu skor monolitik

NXS-GRX (data kanonis, asal-usul, dan risiko) menerbitkan dua puluh indeks domain, empat indeks pilar, satu komposit, dan enam instrumen. Komposit tidak pernah ditampilkan tanpa setiap pilar dan domain di sampingnya, dan tidak ada dimensi independen yang diciutkan secara diam-diam.

P2

Kelas dengan interval, tidak pernah tabel peringkat

Setiap nilai memiliki interval 90% dari analisis Monte Carlo atas normalisasi, bobot, imputasi, dan agregasi. Negara ditempatkan dalam kelas risiko dengan probabilitas kelas yang dinyatakan; halaman mencantumkan negara menurut nama atau kode, tidak pernah menurut nilai.

P3

Tidak ada data bukan berarti nol

Masukan yang hilang ditampilkan sebagai hilang, masukan yang diimputasi diberi tanda, dan nilai ditahan bila cakupan berada di bawah batas minimum metode. Profil kosong, sumber yang tidak tersedia, dan nol hasil pengamatan ditampilkan secara berbeda.

P4

Setiap nilai merujuk ke sumbernya

Setiap nilai membawa rilis sumber, lisensi, waktu pengambilan, versi metode, dan rantai transformasinya (W3C PROV). Koreksi di mana pun merambat ke setiap nilai yang bergantung dan dicatat secara publik.

P5

Yang terukur, dimodelkan, dan dipersepsikan dipisahkan

Glif status memisahkan masukan teramati, dilaporkan, diperkirakan, disimpulkan, prakiraan, simulasi, skenario, dan pakar. Sinyal persepsi membentuk instrumennya sendiri dan tidak pernah dicampur ke dalam risiko terukur.

P6

Sistemik sejak rancangannya

Risiko mandiri dan risiko yang disesuaikan dengan keterkaitan dilaporkan berdampingan, dari jaringan ketergantungan bertipe di bidang perdagangan, keuangan, energi, pangan, infrastruktur, dan informasi.

P7

Dibatasi lisensi dan dapat direproduksi

Sumber masuk ke nilai publik hanya jika lisensinya mengizinkan penggunaan tersebut; nilai yang ditahan dihitung, tidak disembunyikan. Metode, jalur kode, seed, dan digest diterbitkan per rilis sehingga setiap nilai dapat dihitung ulang.

P8

Informasi, bukan otoritas

NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan pemeringkatan, klasifikasi resmi, peringatan, tolok ukur, atau nasihat, dan tidak pernah memutuskan atas nama suatu lembaga.

02Alur

Sumber ke profil

Every indicator declares its place on the risk chain and its polarity, so aggregation never mixes directions silently.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes
Grafik
01Sumber
02Harmonise
03Indikator
04Sub-indices
05Domain
06Pilar
07Composite and instruments
08Keluaran

100%
Indeks
  1. Aliran peristiwa

    SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
    Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
  2. 205 sumber terdaftar

    SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
    Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
  3. Famili skenario

    SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
    Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
  4. Survei dan elisitasi

    SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
    Elisitasi ahli terstruktur dan survei publik, dipisahkan dari risiko yang diukur.
  5. Jaringan ketergantungan

    NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
    Perdagangan dan input-output, keuangan dan utang, energi, perdagangan pangan, infrastruktur, serta keterkaitan informasi.
  6. Seri yang diselaraskan

    HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
    Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
  7. 451 indikator

    IND · IND · Indicator Standard
    Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
  8. 86 subindeks

    SUB · SUB · normalised
    Komponen yang dinormalisasi, dibobot, dan diagregasi di dalam setiap domain.
  9. 20 indeks domain

    IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
    Dua puluh indeks domain dengan interval Monte Carlo dan analisis sensitivitas.
  10. Skor keterkaitan sistemik

    COUPLING · COUPLING · S
    Penularan pada jaringan dependensi: DebtRank, kliring, dan efek berantai ambang batas.
  11. Paparan bahaya dan ancaman

    PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  12. Kerentanan manusia dan sistem

    PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  13. Kerapuhan makrofinansial dan struktural

    PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  14. Kurangnya kapasitas penanggulangan dan adaptasi

    PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
    Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
  15. Pulse

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
    Nowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
  16. Prospek

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
    Probabilitas peristiwa yang dikalibrasi beserta kartu skor verifikasi.
  17. Ekor

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
    Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
  18. Lintasan

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
    Fan charts under named scenario families.
  19. Persepsi

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
    Tingkat keparahan yang dipersepsikan dan kesenjangan persepsi.
  20. NXS-GRX risiko komposit

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
  21. 195 profil negara

    PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
    Setiap domain, pilar, dan instrumen per negara, tanpa pernah diperingkat.
  22. 54 indeks seri

    SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
    Indeks khusus dari indeks domain yang sama.
  23. API, petak, dan berkas massal

    ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
    Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
  24. NXS-GRX risiko terkait

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
    Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
03Pilar

Pillars and domain indices

Pillar values are expert-weighted geometric means of their domain indices (equal weights in the baseline, recorded per release); a pillar needs two thirds of its domains, otherwise it is withheld.

HTE · Keterpaparan bahaya dan ancaman

HAZMulti-hazard exposure indexgeometric complement · equal weights · 5 components · 17 indicators CLIClimate physical hazard indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 16 indicators CONConflict risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 4 components · 15 indicators SPCSpace-weather exposure indexproduct · equal weights · 2 components · 6 indicators CLIClimate transition exposure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 2 components · 5 indicators

VUL · Kerentanan manusia dan sistem

SOCSocio-economic vulnerability indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 18 indicators DEMDisplacement pressure indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators FOOFood insecurity risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators WATWater security risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 4 components · 11 indicators HLTHealth security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 25 indicators ENVEnvironmental pressure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 5 components · 16 indicators ENEEnergy security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators INFInfrastructure fragility indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 24 indicators

MSF · Kerapuhan makro-keuangan dan struktural

FISFiscal and public debt risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 7 components · 27 indicators FINFinancial stability risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 7 components · 28 indicators ECOExternal dependence risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 5 components · 22 indicators CYBCyber risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 12 indicators TECTechnology concentration risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators

LCC · Kurangnya kapasitas penanggulangan dan adaptasi

CRSLack of coping capacity indexgeometric · expert weights · 6 components · 26 indicators GOVGovernance weakness indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 16 indicators
04Komposit

Composite and coupled composite

The composite never appears alone: profiles show each pillar and domain beside it.

Komposit
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Komposit terkait
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Ketidakpastian
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, imputation, aggregation (geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto); 90% intervals; Sobol first-order and total-order indices per release
Cakupan
Each pillar needs two thirds of its domain indices; otherwise the composite is withheld and the pillar shown alone
GBR 3 · Simulator: empat pilar menuju komposit dan komposit terkopel
Pilar (0 hingga 10)
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.8
Keterkaitan dan ketidakpastian
0.4
0.25
0.4
–
berjalan di peramban Anda

Simulator: Komposit = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼ dengan batas bawah setiap pilar 0.1; Terkopel = Komposit × (1 + κ·S). Undian memvariasikan bobot, agregasi, dan masukan. Posisi ini adalah titik awal, bukan nilai NXS-GRX. Disimulasikan dengan masukan Anda sendiri; bukan hasil terukur.
05Kelas

Classes and intervals, never league tables

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%). Fixed bounds keep classes comparable across editions; intervals show when two countries cannot be told apart. Lists are ordered by name or code.

Sangat rendah0.0 hingga < 2.0
Rendah2.0 hingga < 3.5
Sedang3.5 hingga < 5.0
Tinggi5.0 hingga < 6.5
Sangat tinggi6.5 hingga 10.0
06Konstruksi

Ten construction steps

The steps follow the OECD/JRC handbook on composite indicators and the statistical audit practice of the JRC Competence Centre on Composite Indicators, referenced for method only.

Theoretical framework Risk chain from hazard to outcome; four pillars; twenty index domains; explicit polarity and risk component for every indicator.
Data selection indicator definitions with SDMX-compatible keys, crosswalks to source code lists, evidence class A–E and the licence register.
Missing data Flagged imputation only at IND layer (dimension mean, indicator median, multiple imputation); modelled share capped per composite; coverage minimum two thirds.
Multivariate analysis Correlation structure, principal components and Cronbach’s alpha per sub-index; incoherent components are re-specified before release.
Normalisation Min–max with fixed goalposts, percentile rank or identity on native 0–10 scales; skew and kurtosis treatment (winsorisation, log) above |skew| 2 and kurtosis 3.5.
Weighting and aggregation Equal or expert weights recorded per composite; geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto, product or geometric-complement aggregation as each definition declares; floor 0.1 before geometric means.
Uncertainty and sensitivity At least 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over the declared alternatives; 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol indices published with every release.
Back to the data Driver decomposition to indicator level; every value opens to its inputs, sources and transformation chain.
Links to other indicators Published crosswalks and correlation checks against established indices, used as validity evidence, never as inputs to be re-weighted.
Visualisation and dissemination Classes and intervals, never league tables; machine access through API, SDMX keys, tiles and bulk files; corrections and versions public.
07Release

One edition, run as a workflow

An edition is a run: the evidence cut freezes, sources pass the licence gate, 451 indicators are computed for 195 profiles, 1,000 draws give the intervals, and two approval gates stand before anything is published.

on: evidence cut

Proses rilis edisi

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafik
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indikator
05Indeks
06Indeks
07Indeks
08Ketidakpastian
09Ketidakpastian
10Tinjauan
11Tinjauan
12Terbitkan

100%
Linimasa
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Langkah
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRXBuku besar PostgreSQL (keamanan tingkat baris)
  2. Gerbang lisensi

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Register lisensi
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRXstandar indikator
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRXstandar indikator
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRXKernel model yang telah diuji
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Dua puluh indeks domain
    Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRXKernel model yang telah diuji
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Jaringan ketergantunganKernel model yang telah diuji
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Mesin Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Mesin Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Kernel model yang telah diuji
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Buku besar PostgreSQL (keamanan tingkat baris)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Vector tilesZenodo deposit
Artefak
Artefak Pekerjaan Siapa Tahap
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Gerbang lisensi Register lisensi Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indikator Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRX Indikator
SUB values Sub-indices Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRX Indeks
IDX values Indeks domain Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRX Indeks
S per country Coupling score Layanan pelaksanaan NXS-GRX Indeks
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Mesin Monte Carlo Ketidakpastian
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Mesin Monte Carlo Ketidakpastian
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Tinjauan
Release decision Steward review Pengelola Tinjauan
Edisi Profiles and series Foundry Terbitkan
Ubin peta Tiles and bulk files Foundry Terbitkan
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Terbitkan
SelesaiSedang berjalanMenunggu persetujuanDalam antreanGerbang persetujuanTugas matriksAnda di sini
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
08Aggregation

Five aggregation shapes

Try them on the fiscal and public debt index: switch the aggregation and watch the class and interval move.

Aggregation Apa yang dilakukannya Domain indices using it
geometric Weighted geometric mean after a floor of 0.1: partial compensation, so weakness in one component cannot be fully offset by strength in another. Risiko fiskal dan utang publik · Bahaya fisik iklim · Risiko ketahanan air · Risiko keamanan kesehatan · Kerentanan sosial-ekonomi · Risiko ketahanan energi · Kerapuhan infrastruktur · Risiko siber · Kurangnya kapasitas penanggulangan
Mazziotta–Pareto Mean adjusted by the spread across components (non-compensatory): unbalanced profiles read as riskier than balanced ones with the same mean. Risiko stabilitas keuangan · Risiko kerawanan pangan · Risiko konflik
arithmetic Weighted arithmetic mean: full compensation, used where components are substitutes. Risiko ketergantungan eksternal · Keterpaparan transisi iklim · Tekanan lingkungan · Tekanan pengungsian · Kelemahan tata kelola · Risiko konsentrasi teknologi
geometric complement Complement of the geometric mean of complements: any single high exposure lifts the index, as for multi-hazard exposure. Keterpaparan multibahaya
product Product of normalised components: risk exists only where all components are present, as for space-weather exposure. Keterpaparan cuaca antariksa
FIG 4 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
berjalan di peramban Anda

Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
09Missing data

Tidak ada data bukan berarti nol

Imputation happens only at the indicator layer and is always flagged: dimension mean, indicator median or multiple imputation, as each definition declares. Each composite caps the share of its weight that may rest on modelled or imputed inputs and withholds its value below its coverage minimum. Coverage is published as a vector per country and indicator, never as a single complete flag; fragile and small-island states are where gaps cluster, so their coverage is shown first.

10Status

Status and value states

Glif Status Rata-rata
● TERAMATI Diukur langsung dan diterbitkan oleh sumber
□ DILAPORKAN Dilaporkan atau dinyatakan oleh penerbit, tidak diukur secara independen
◆ DIESTIMASI Diperkirakan atau dimodelkan dengan metode yang dinyatakan
▲ DISIMPULKAN Disimpulkan dari sinyal terkait
◇ PRAKIRAAN Pernyataan probabilistik tentang periode mendatang
◈ DISIMULASIKAN Keluaran simulasi atau himpunan peristiwa stokastik
○ SKENARIO Bersyarat pada skenario bernama, bukan prediksi
◎ MASUKAN PAKAR Penilaian pakar terstruktur
Value state Rata-rata
PUBLISHED Dirilis dalam edisi dengan interval, kelas, dan sumber
NO_DATA Tidak ada masukan yang diterima; bukan nol
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE Cakupan di bawah minimum metode; nilai ditahan
WITHHELD Lisensi suatu masukan atau penyaringan keamanan publik tidak mengizinkan penayangan publik; tetap dihitung
DEGRADED Diterbitkan dengan keterbatasan kualitas yang dinyatakan
11Instrumen

Pulse

Pertanyaan
Apa yang berubah sejak potongan struktural terakhir?
Frekuensi
Prakiraan kini mingguan, berbasis peristiwa di antara rilis
Metode
Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model over admitted event streams (multi-hazard alerts, Earth observation, conflict events, prices, shipping, market stress), expressed as a standardised anomaly against each country’s own history.
Keluaran
  • Pulse anomaly by domain
  • Signals for review with their sources
  • Threshold crossings for subscribers
Status of outputs
TERAMATIDISIMPULKAN
Pulse publishes with the first edition. Weekly anomalies by country and domain will appear here as a timeline, each signal with its sources and status.
12Instrumen

Prospek

Pertanyaan
Seberapa mungkin hasil merugikan tertentu dalam horizon yang dinyatakan?
Frekuensi
Bulanan, horizon 1, 3, 12, dan 36 bulan
Metode
Calibrated probabilistic ensembles (statistical, machine learning and structured expert elicitation) for defined events: conflict onset and escalation, acute food insecurity phase shifts, debt distress signals, disaster losses, displacement surges. Verified with Brier skill, reliability diagrams, ROC and CRPS against outcomes.
Keluaran
  • Event probabilities with credible intervals
  • Forecast verification scorecards
  • Back-test record per model version
Status of outputs
PRAKIRAAN
FIG 7 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
–
berjalan di peramban Anda

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
13Instrumen

Lintasan

Pertanyaan
Bagaimana risiko bergerak di bawah masa depan alternatif hingga 2030, 2050, dan 2100?
Frekuensi
Setiap edisi tahunan
Metode
Pillar and domain values projected under SSP × warming-level combinations and central-bank-network transition scenario families (used as labelled scenario structures), with demographic, urbanisation, governance and conflict pathways; fan charts, not point paths.
Keluaran
  • Fan charts per domain and pillar
  • Scenario cascades
  • Adaptation and transition levers
Status of outputs
SKENARIODISIMULASIKAN
FIG 8 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
–
berjalan di peramban Anda

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
14Instrumen

Ekor

Pertanyaan
Seperti apa ujung distribusi yang langka dan parah?
Frekuensi
Setiap edisi tahunan, diperbarui menurut peristiwa
Metode
Event loss tables and year loss tables, exceedance-probability curves, probable maximum loss at 1-in-100 and 1-in-250, expected shortfall, compound-event copulas and a register of low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks.
Keluaran
  • Exceedance curves and return-period losses where loss can be modelled
  • Protection-gap readings
  • Catastrophic and frontier risk register
Status of outputs
DISIMULASIKANDIMODELKAN
FIG 9 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
berjalan di peramban Anda

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
15Instrumen

Keterkaitan

Pertanyaan
Ke mana risiko berpindah lintas sistem dan batas negara?
Frekuensi
Setiap edisi tahunan, pembaruan jaringan triwulanan
Metode
Typed multi-layer dependency network (trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and digital links); contagion estimated with DebtRank, Eisenberg–Noe clearing and threshold cascades; systemic importance and exposure scores per country and system.
Keluaran
  • Skor keterkaitan sistemik S
  • Coupled composite beside standalone
  • Transmission paths with status and references
Status of outputs
DIESTIMASIDISIMULASIKAN
FIG 10 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
Air
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 11 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
–
berjalan di peramban Anda

AirEnergiPanganKesehatanKeanekaragaman hayatiKeuanganPerdaganganInfrastrukturDigitalKeamanan

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
16Instrumen

Persepsi

Pertanyaan
Di mana risiko yang dipersepsikan berbeda dari risiko yang diukur?
Frekuensi
Gelombang survei tahunan pakar dan publik
Metode
Structured expert elicitation and public risk surveys, published as their own dimension with a perception-versus-measured gap per domain; never blended into the composite.
Keluaran
  • Perceived severity by domain and horizon
  • Perception gap
  • Respondent coverage statement
Status of outputs
MASUKAN PAKARDILAPORKAN
Perception publishes with the first survey wave. Perceived severity by domain and horizon, with the perception gap against measured values.
17Geography

Six geographic levels

G0GlobalThe global series aggregates country values population- and exposure-weighted and reads the global systems directly. G1Country195 country profiles: the 193 UN member states and the 2 UN observer states. G2First administrative level (ADM1)Where boundaries and inputs admit; boundary versions are recorded. G3Second administrative level and below (ADM2+)Selected indicators and hazard layers. G4Cities and functional areasCities, river basins, coasts, corridors and islands. G5Hexagonal grid (H3)Resolution 4 to 7 for national views, finer for local layers; one fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
18Validation

Validation in public

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes: disaster mortality and losses, acute food insecurity phases, conflict onset and fatalities, debt distress episodes, displacement.

Forecast verification with Brier skill score

Forecast verification with Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC area and CRPS, published per model version.

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure, coherence, uncertainty and rank stability)

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations, so a value can be recomputed by anyone.

Country right of reply and public correction log

Country right of reply and public correction log.

19Revisions

Revisions and corrections

Methodology carries a semantic version; a change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow, and a correction propagates to every dependent value with a public log entry.

DrafDihitungTerikat buktiDitinjauDisetujui untuk dirilisDiterbitkanDikoreksiDigantikan
20Vintages

Point-in-time vintages and validation metrics

Validation follows the composite-indicator audit practice of the JRC and the early-warning literature (Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999; Alessi and Detken 2011).

Vintages

Nothing is overwritten

Every edition and every correction is a vintage with its snapshot, frozen inputs and method version. A past value stays retrievable as it was published, so any study can be rerun on the information available at the time.

Revisions

Revisions are measured

Each indicator publishes its revision record between vintages, as the mean absolute revision and its direction, so a reader can see which inputs move after first release.

Stabilitas

Rank reversal is tested

Adding or removing a country or an indicator must not reorder the others beyond the uncertainty already reported; the test is part of each edition’s uncertainty analysis.

Peringatan dini

Signals are back-tested

Forecast and trigger instruments are scored out of sample, in pseudo real time: AUROC with its interval, noise-to-signal ratio, usefulness against the cost of a missed event, and the Brier score for probabilities.

Comparability

Breaks are declared

A method change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow; otherwise the series carries a declared break and comparisons across it are refused.

Lab

Try the methods yourself

The Index Lab runs these construction and validation methods on your own numbers in the browser.

21Reproducibility

Recompute any value

Each release publishes definitions, method versions, code paths, random seeds and content digests; every kernel is tested against hand-derived golden values.

Indicator Standard
451 indicators · 106 composites · 501 crosswalks
Standar Bahaya
14 domains · 120 families · 905 hazards · 281 HIPs 2025 hazards
model registry
670 methods in 23 fabrics
Release
Each edition is deposited with its definitions, method version and inputs, with a DOI

Bentuk

Comment on the methodology

Open consultation on normalisation, weighting, aggregation, imputation, uncertainty and validation; every comment receives a disposition in the consultation record.

  1. 01IsiKolom bertanda (wajib) harus diisi; selebihnya membantu peninjauan.
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  3. 03TinjauanHasilnya dicatat secara terbuka. Detail kontak tetap di situs ini dan tidak pernah diterbitkan atau dibagikan.
Form · grx-consult

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Disagree with a method?

Every method comment is answered in the review record, and accepted changes are versioned and back-cast.

Comment on the method Try the Index Lab

Status

Metodologi, struktur, dan definisi The Global Risks Index merupakan draf kerja persiapan (2026), yang diedarkan untuk ditinjau dan dikomentari, bukan untuk diterapkan. Tidak ada nilai yang ditampilkan sampai sebuah edisi dirilis dari pemotongan bukti yang diatur; nilai-nilai tersebut kemudian memuat interval, kelas, sumber, dan jalur koreksinya. Simulator menjalankan metode yang diterbitkan pada angka yang Anda pilih dan tidak pernah menampilkan nilai NXS-GRX.

Apa yang bukan NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX adalah informasi riset dan analitik risiko. NXS-GRX bukan peringkat kredit atau ESG dan tidak memakai skala peringkat, bukan acuan untuk instrumen keuangan, bukan statistik resmi, bukan peringatan darurat atau klasifikasi resmi, dan bukan nasihat. NXS-GRX tidak boleh digunakan untuk menilai orang perseorangan. Kelas risiko adalah pita pada skala yang diterbitkan, tidak pernah peringkat negara atau orang.

Sinyal Pulse dan probabilitas prospek adalah informasi untuk ditinjau oleh otoritas yang berwenang, tidak pernah peringatan publik; peringatan resmi hanya berasal dari otoritas yang diberi mandat.

Lembaga dan sumber

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Setiap nilai memuat atribusi sumbernya, yang tetap memiliki lisensinya masing-masing. Nama-nama eksternal dikutip semata-mata untuk interoperabilitas. Teks yang disusun Nexus direncanakan berlisensi CC BY 4.0 saat dirilis.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.