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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methodology 1.0.0-draft

One grammar, seven instruments

Indicators to domains to pillars to composite, with intervals, classes, coupling, forecasts, scenarios, tails and a separate perception layer. Every method on this page runs in your browser on numbers you choose.

Composite Construction Explorers
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Method 1.0.0-draftValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · The risk chain
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
매우 낮음0.0 이상 2.0 미만
낮음2.0 이상 3.5 미만
중간3.5 이상 5.0 미만
높음5.0 이상 6.5 미만
매우 높음6.5~10.0
Every indicator sits on the chain; every value lands in a class with its probability.
451
지표 정의
106
composites
7
instruments
1,000
draws per value

01원칙

Eight principles

P1

하나의 단일 점수가 아닌 지수 계열

NXS-GRX (표준 데이터, 출처 이력, 리스크)는 영역 지수 20개, 기둥 지수 4개, 복합 지수 1개, 도구 6개를 발행합니다. 복합 지수는 반드시 모든 기둥과 영역 옆에 함께 표시되며, 어떠한 독립 차원도 표시 없이 통합되지 않습니다.

P2

구간이 있는 등급, 결코 순위표가 아님

모든 값에는 정규화, 가중치, 대체, 집계에 대한 몬테카를로 분석의 90% 구간이 붙습니다. 국가는 명시된 등급 확률과 함께 리스크 등급에 배치되며, 페이지는 국가를 값이 아닌 이름이나 코드로 나열합니다.

P3

데이터 없음은 0이 아닙니다

누락된 입력은 누락으로 표시하고, 대체 추정한 입력에는 표시를 하며, 포괄 범위가 방법의 최소 기준에 못 미치면 값을 공개하지 않습니다. 빈 프로필, 이용할 수 없는 출처, 관측된 0은 서로 다르게 표시됩니다.

P4

모든 값은 출처로 연결됩니다

각 값에는 출처 릴리스, 라이선스, 수집 시각, 방법 버전, 변환 체인(W3C PROV)이 붙습니다. 어디서든 정정이 이루어지면 모든 종속 값에 전파되고 공개적으로 기록됩니다.

P5

측정값, 모델값, 인식값을 구분합니다

상태 글리프는 관측, 보고, 추정, 추론, 예보, 시뮬레이션, 시나리오, 전문가 입력을 구분합니다. 인식 신호는 별도의 도구를 이루며 측정된 리스크와 결코 혼합되지 않습니다.

P6

구조적으로 시스템적

단독 리스크와 결합 조정 리스크를 무역, 금융, 에너지, 식량, 인프라, 정보 전반의 유형별 의존 네트워크에서 산출하여 나란히 보고합니다.

P7

라이선스 통제 및 재현 가능

출처는 라이선스가 해당 사용을 허용할 때만 공개 값에 포함됩니다. 보류된 값은 숨기지 않고 집계합니다. 방법, 코드 경로, 시드, 다이제스트는 릴리스마다 공개되어 어떤 값이든 재계산할 수 있습니다.

P8

권한이 아닌 정보

NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 등급, 공식 분류, 경보, 벤치마크 또는 자문이 아니며, 결코 기관을 대신하여 결정하지 않습니다.

02파이프라인

출처에서 프로필까지

Every indicator declares its place on the risk chain and its polarity, so aggregation never mixes directions silently.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes
그래프
01출처
02Harmonise
03지표
04Sub-indices
05영역
06기둥
07Composite and instruments
08산출물

100%
색인
  1. 사건 스트림

    SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
    Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
  2. 등록 출처 205개

    SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
    Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
  3. 시나리오 계열

    SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
    Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
  4. 설문 및 전문가 의견 수렴

    SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
    구조화된 전문가 의견 수렴과 대중 설문 조사로, 측정된 리스크와 분리하여 보관합니다.
  5. 의존 네트워크

    NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
    무역과 투입산출, 금융과 부채, 에너지, 식량 교역, 인프라, 정보 연계.
  6. 조화된 계열

    HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
    Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
  7. 지표 451개

    IND · IND · Indicator Standard
    Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
  8. 하위 지수 86개

    SUB · SUB · normalised
    각 영역 안에서 정규화, 가중, 집계한 구성 요소.
  9. 영역 지수 20개

    IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
    몬테카를로 구간과 민감도를 갖춘 영역 지수 20개.
  10. 시스템 결합 점수

    COUPLING · COUPLING · S
    의존 네트워크상의 전염: DebtRank, 청산, 임계값 연쇄.
  11. 재해 및 위협 노출

    PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  12. 인간 및 시스템 취약성

    PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  13. 거시금융 및 구조적 취약성

    PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  14. 대처 및 적응 역량 부족

    PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
    Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
  15. 동향

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
    Nowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
  16. 전망

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
    검증 성적표를 갖춘 보정된 사건 확률.
  17. 꼬리

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
    Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
  18. 경로

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
    Fan charts under named scenario families.
  19. 인식

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
    인지된 심각도와 인식 격차.
  20. NXS-GRX 종합 리스크

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
  21. 국가 프로필 195개

    PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
    국가별 모든 영역, 기둥, 도구로, 순위는 매기지 않습니다.
  22. 시리즈 지수 54개

    SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
    동일한 영역 지수에서 도출한 특화 지수.
  23. API, 타일 및 대량 파일

    ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
    Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
  24. NXS-GRX 결합 리스크

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
    Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
실행 전진행 중완료
FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
03기둥

Pillars and domain indices

Pillar values are expert-weighted geometric means of their domain indices (equal weights in the baseline, recorded per release); a pillar needs two thirds of its domains, otherwise it is withheld.

HTE · 재해 및 위협 노출

HAZMulti-hazard exposure indexgeometric complement · equal weights · 5 components · 17 indicators CLIClimate physical hazard indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 16 indicators CONConflict risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 4 components · 15 indicators SPCSpace-weather exposure indexproduct · equal weights · 2 components · 6 indicators CLIClimate transition exposure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 2 components · 5 indicators

VUL · 인간 및 시스템 취약성

SOCSocio-economic vulnerability indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 18 indicators DEMDisplacement pressure indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators FOOFood insecurity risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators WATWater security risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 4 components · 11 indicators HLTHealth security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 25 indicators ENVEnvironmental pressure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 5 components · 16 indicators ENEEnergy security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators INFInfrastructure fragility indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 24 indicators

MSF · 거시금융 및 구조적 취약성

FISFiscal and public debt risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 7 components · 27 indicators FINFinancial stability risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 7 components · 28 indicators ECOExternal dependence risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 5 components · 22 indicators CYBCyber risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 12 indicators TECTechnology concentration risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators

LCC · 대처 역량 및 적응 역량 부족

CRSLack of coping capacity indexgeometric · expert weights · 6 components · 26 indicators GOVGovernance weakness indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 16 indicators
04종합

Composite and coupled composite

The composite never appears alone: profiles show each pillar and domain beside it.

종합
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
결합 종합
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
불확실성
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, imputation, aggregation (geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto); 90% intervals; Sobol first-order and total-order indices per release
적용 범위
Each pillar needs two thirds of its domain indices; otherwise the composite is withheld and the pillar shown alone
그림 3 · 시뮬레이터: 네 개 기둥에서 복합 지수와 결합 복합 지수로
기둥(0~10)
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.8
결합과 불확실성
0.4
0.25
0.4
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

시뮬레이터: Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼, 각 기둥의 하한은 0.1; Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S). 추출마다 가중치, 집계 방식, 입력값이 달라집니다. 위치는 출발점이며 NXS-GRX 값이 아닙니다. 사용자의 입력값으로 시뮬레이션한 것이며 측정 결과가 아닙니다.
05등급

Classes and intervals, never league tables

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%). Fixed bounds keep classes comparable across editions; intervals show when two countries cannot be told apart. Lists are ordered by name or code.

매우 낮음0.0 이상 2.0 미만
낮음2.0 이상 3.5 미만
중간3.5 이상 5.0 미만
높음5.0 이상 6.5 미만
매우 높음6.5~10.0
06Construction

Ten construction steps

The steps follow the OECD/JRC handbook on composite indicators and the statistical audit practice of the JRC Competence Centre on Composite Indicators, referenced for method only.

Theoretical framework Risk chain from hazard to outcome; four pillars; twenty index domains; explicit polarity and risk component for every indicator.
Data selection indicator definitions with SDMX-compatible keys, crosswalks to source code lists, evidence class A–E and the licence register.
Missing data Flagged imputation only at IND layer (dimension mean, indicator median, multiple imputation); modelled share capped per composite; coverage minimum two thirds.
Multivariate analysis Correlation structure, principal components and Cronbach’s alpha per sub-index; incoherent components are re-specified before release.
Normalisation Min–max with fixed goalposts, percentile rank or identity on native 0–10 scales; skew and kurtosis treatment (winsorisation, log) above |skew| 2 and kurtosis 3.5.
Weighting and aggregation Equal or expert weights recorded per composite; geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto, product or geometric-complement aggregation as each definition declares; floor 0.1 before geometric means.
Uncertainty and sensitivity At least 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over the declared alternatives; 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol indices published with every release.
Back to the data Driver decomposition to indicator level; every value opens to its inputs, sources and transformation chain.
Links to other indicators Published crosswalks and correlation checks against established indices, used as validity evidence, never as inputs to be re-weighted.
Visualisation and dissemination Classes and intervals, never league tables; machine access through API, SDMX keys, tiles and bulk files; corrections and versions public.
07Release

One edition, run as a workflow

An edition is a run: the evidence cut freezes, sources pass the licence gate, 451 indicators are computed for 195 profiles, 1,000 draws give the intervals, and two approval gates stand before anything is published.

on: evidence cut

판 발행 실행

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

그래프
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04지표
05지수
06지수
07지수
08불확실성
09불확실성
10검토
11검토
12공개

100%
타임라인
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

단계
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    NXS-GRX 실행 서비스PostgreSQL 원장(행 수준 보안)
  2. 라이선스 관문

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    라이선스 등록부
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    NXS-GRX 실행 서비스지표 표준
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    NXS-GRX 실행 서비스지표 표준
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    NXS-GRX 실행 서비스시험을 거친 모델 커널
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    20개 영역 지수
    NXS-GRX 실행 서비스시험을 거친 모델 커널
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    의존 네트워크시험을 거친 모델 커널
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    몬테카를로 엔진
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    몬테카를로 엔진
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    시험을 거친 모델 커널
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    PostgreSQL 원장(행 수준 보안)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    벡터 타일Zenodo 기탁
산출물
산출물 작업 담당 단계
Cut record Evidence cut frozen NXS-GRX 실행 서비스 Cut
Withheld counts 라이선스 관문 라이선스 등록부 Ingest
HAR series Harmonise NXS-GRX 실행 서비스 Ingest
IND values 지표 NXS-GRX 실행 서비스 지표
SUB values Sub-indices NXS-GRX 실행 서비스 지수
IDX values 영역 지수 NXS-GRX 실행 서비스 지수
S per country Coupling score NXS-GRX 실행 서비스 지수
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws 몬테카를로 엔진 불확실성
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol 몬테카를로 엔진 불확실성
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer 검토
Release decision Steward review 관리 주체 검토
판 Profiles and series Foundry 공개
타일 Tiles and bulk files Foundry 공개
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry 공개
완료진행 중승인 대기 중대기 중승인 게이트매트릭스 작업현재 위치
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
08Aggregation

Five aggregation shapes

Try them on the fiscal and public debt index: switch the aggregation and watch the class and interval move.

Aggregation 기능 Domain indices using it
geometric Weighted geometric mean after a floor of 0.1: partial compensation, so weakness in one component cannot be fully offset by strength in another. 재정 및 공공 부채 리스크 · 기후 물리적 재해 · 물 안보 리스크 · 보건 안보 리스크 · 사회경제적 취약성 · 에너지 안보 리스크 · 인프라 취약성 · 사이버 리스크 · 대처 역량 부족
Mazziotta–Pareto Mean adjusted by the spread across components (non-compensatory): unbalanced profiles read as riskier than balanced ones with the same mean. 금융 안정 리스크 · 식량 불안정 리스크 · 분쟁 리스크
arithmetic Weighted arithmetic mean: full compensation, used where components are substitutes. 대외 의존 리스크 · 기후 전환 노출 · 환경 압력 · 이주 압력 · 거버넌스 취약성 · 기술 집중 리스크
geometric complement Complement of the geometric mean of complements: any single high exposure lifts the index, as for multi-hazard exposure. 다중 재해 노출
product Product of normalised components: risk exists only where all components are present, as for space-weather exposure. 우주기상 노출
FIG 4 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
09Missing data

데이터 없음은 0이 아닙니다

Imputation happens only at the indicator layer and is always flagged: dimension mean, indicator median or multiple imputation, as each definition declares. Each composite caps the share of its weight that may rest on modelled or imputed inputs and withholds its value below its coverage minimum. Coverage is published as a vector per country and indicator, never as a single complete flag; fragile and small-island states are where gaps cluster, so their coverage is shown first.

10상태

Status and value states

글리프 상태 평균
● 관측 출처가 직접 측정하고 게시함
□ 보고 게시자가 보고 또는 선언했으며 독립적으로 측정되지 않음
◆ 추정 명시된 방법으로 추정 또는 모델링됨
▲ 추론 관련 신호에서 추론됨
◇ 예측 미래 기간에 대한 확률적 진술
◈ 모의 시뮬레이션 또는 확률적 사건 집합의 출력
○ 시나리오 명명된 시나리오에 따른 조건부 값이며 예측이 아님
◎ 전문가 입력 구조화된 전문가 판단
Value state 평균
PUBLISHED 구간, 등급, 출처와 함께 판으로 발행됨
NO_DATA 승인된 입력 없음. 0이 아님
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE 범위가 방법 최소 기준 미만. 값 보류
WITHHELD 입력 자료의 라이선스 또는 공개 안전성 검토에 따라 공개 표시가 허용되지 않음; 집계에는 포함
DEGRADED 명시된 품질 제한과 함께 공개됨
11도구

동향

질문
마지막 구조적 마감 이후 무엇이 바뀌었는가?
주기
주간 나우캐스트, 공개 사이에는 사건 기반
방법
Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model over admitted event streams (multi-hazard alerts, Earth observation, conflict events, prices, shipping, market stress), expressed as a standardised anomaly against each country’s own history.
산출물
  • Pulse anomaly by domain
  • Signals for review with their sources
  • Threshold crossings for subscribers
Status of outputs
관측추론
Pulse publishes with the first edition. Weekly anomalies by country and domain will appear here as a timeline, each signal with its sources and status.
12도구

전망

질문
명시된 기간 내 정의된 불리한 결과가 일어날 가능성은 얼마인가?
주기
월간, 예측 기간 1, 3, 12, 36개월
방법
Calibrated probabilistic ensembles (statistical, machine learning and structured expert elicitation) for defined events: conflict onset and escalation, acute food insecurity phase shifts, debt distress signals, disaster losses, displacement surges. Verified with Brier skill, reliability diagrams, ROC and CRPS against outcomes.
산출물
  • Event probabilities with credible intervals
  • Forecast verification scorecards
  • Back-test record per model version
Status of outputs
예측
FIG 7 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
13도구

경로

질문
2030년, 2050년, 2100년까지의 대안적 미래에서 리스크는 어떻게 변하는가?
주기
매 연간 판
방법
Pillar and domain values projected under SSP × warming-level combinations and central-bank-network transition scenario families (used as labelled scenario structures), with demographic, urbanisation, governance and conflict pathways; fan charts, not point paths.
산출물
  • Fan charts per domain and pillar
  • Scenario cascades
  • Adaptation and transition levers
Status of outputs
시나리오모의
FIG 8 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
14도구

꼬리

질문
분포의 드물고 심각한 끝은 어떤 모습인가?
주기
매 연간 판, 사건에 따라 갱신
방법
Event loss tables and year loss tables, exceedance-probability curves, probable maximum loss at 1-in-100 and 1-in-250, expected shortfall, compound-event copulas and a register of low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks.
산출물
  • Exceedance curves and return-period losses where loss can be modelled
  • Protection-gap readings
  • Catastrophic and frontier risk register
Status of outputs
모의모델링
FIG 9 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
15도구

결합

질문
리스크는 시스템과 국경을 넘어 어디로 이동하는가?
주기
매 연간 판, 분기별 네트워크 갱신
방법
Typed multi-layer dependency network (trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and digital links); contagion estimated with DebtRank, Eisenberg–Noe clearing and threshold cascades; systemic importance and exposure scores per country and system.
산출물
  • 시스템 결합 점수 S
  • Coupled composite beside standalone
  • Transmission paths with status and references
Status of outputs
추정모의
FIG 10 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
물
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 11 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
–
브라우저에서 실행됨

물에너지식량보건생물다양성금융무역인프라Digital보안

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
16도구

인식

질문
인지된 리스크는 측정된 리스크와 어디서 다른가?
주기
연례 전문가 및 대중 조사
방법
Structured expert elicitation and public risk surveys, published as their own dimension with a perception-versus-measured gap per domain; never blended into the composite.
산출물
  • Perceived severity by domain and horizon
  • Perception gap
  • Respondent coverage statement
Status of outputs
전문가 입력보고
Perception publishes with the first survey wave. Perceived severity by domain and horizon, with the perception gap against measured values.
17Geography

Six geographic levels

G0GlobalThe global series aggregates country values population- and exposure-weighted and reads the global systems directly. G1Country195 country profiles: the 193 UN member states and the 2 UN observer states. G2First administrative level (ADM1)Where boundaries and inputs admit; boundary versions are recorded. G3Second administrative level and below (ADM2+)Selected indicators and hazard layers. G4Cities and functional areasCities, river basins, coasts, corridors and islands. G5Hexagonal grid (H3)Resolution 4 to 7 for national views, finer for local layers; one fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
18Validation

Validation in public

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes: disaster mortality and losses, acute food insecurity phases, conflict onset and fatalities, debt distress episodes, displacement.

Forecast verification with Brier skill score

Forecast verification with Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC area and CRPS, published per model version.

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure, coherence, uncertainty and rank stability)

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations, so a value can be recomputed by anyone.

Country right of reply and public correction log

Country right of reply and public correction log.

19Revisions

Revisions and corrections

Methodology carries a semantic version; a change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow, and a correction propagates to every dependent value with a public log entry.

초안산출됨증거 기반검토 완료발행 승인됨발행됨정정됨대체됨
20Vintages

Point-in-time vintages and validation metrics

Validation follows the composite-indicator audit practice of the JRC and the early-warning literature (Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999; Alessi and Detken 2011).

Vintages

Nothing is overwritten

Every edition and every correction is a vintage with its snapshot, frozen inputs and method version. A past value stays retrievable as it was published, so any study can be rerun on the information available at the time.

Revisions

Revisions are measured

Each indicator publishes its revision record between vintages, as the mean absolute revision and its direction, so a reader can see which inputs move after first release.

안정

Rank reversal is tested

Adding or removing a country or an indicator must not reorder the others beyond the uncertainty already reported; the test is part of each edition’s uncertainty analysis.

조기경보

Signals are back-tested

Forecast and trigger instruments are scored out of sample, in pseudo real time: AUROC with its interval, noise-to-signal ratio, usefulness against the cost of a missed event, and the Brier score for probabilities.

Comparability

Breaks are declared

A method change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow; otherwise the series carries a declared break and comparisons across it are refused.

Lab

Try the methods yourself

The Index Lab runs these construction and validation methods on your own numbers in the browser.

21Reproducibility

Recompute any value

Each release publishes definitions, method versions, code paths, random seeds and content digests; every kernel is tested against hand-derived golden values.

지표 표준
451 indicators · 106 composites · 501 crosswalks
재해 표준
14 domains · 120 families · 905 hazards · 281 HIPs 2025 hazards
model registry
670 methods in 23 fabrics
Release
Each edition is deposited with its definitions, method version and inputs, with a DOI

양식

Comment on the methodology

Open consultation on normalisation, weighting, aggregation, imputation, uncertainty and validation; every comment receives a disposition in the consultation record.

  1. 01작성하기(필수)로 표시된 항목은 반드시 입력해야 하며, 나머지 항목은 검토에 도움이 됩니다.
  2. 02참조 번호화면에 참조 번호가 표시됩니다. 기록은 이 사이트의 WordPress 데이터베이스에 보관됩니다.
  3. 03검토결과는 공개적으로 기록됩니다. 연락처 정보는 이 사이트에만 보관되며 공개되거나 공유되지 않습니다.
Form · grx-consult

이 양식은 활성화되면 여기에서 열립니다. 그때까지는 다음 창구를 통해 보내 주십시오: Nexus Reports 게이트웨이.

Disagree with a method?

Every method comment is answered in the review record, and accepted changes are versioned and back-cast.

Comment on the method Try the Index Lab

상태

Global Risks Index의 방법론, 구조, 정의는 검토와 의견 수렴을 위해 배포된 예비 작업 초안(2026)이며 이행용이 아닙니다. 관리되는 근거 마감에 따라 판이 공개되기 전까지는 어떠한 값도 표시되지 않으며, 공개 후 값에는 구간, 등급, 출처, 정정 경로가 함께 표시됩니다. 시뮬레이터는 귀하가 선택한 숫자에 공개된 방법을 적용할 뿐이며 NXS-GRX 값을 표시하지 않습니다.

NXS-GRX가 아닌 것

NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.

Pulse 신호와 전망 확률은 소관 당국의 검토를 위한 정보이며 결코 공공 경보가 아닙니다. 공식 경보는 권한을 가진 당국만 발령합니다.

기관과 출처

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

모든 값에는 출처 표시가 함께 제공되며, 각 출처는 고유한 라이선스를 유지합니다. 외부 명칭은 상호운용성을 위해서만 인용됩니다. Nexus가 작성한 텍스트는 공개 시 CC BY 4.0 적용을 예정합니다.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.