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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · Exponential technology series

Tecnologie di intervento climatico

Rimozione del carbonio e interventi climatici proposti: rischi fisici, di governance e di interruzione, letti solo da valutazioni pubblicate.

Construction Indicators Pathways
Page GRX-SER-XT-18Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-18 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indici di dominio

5

Climate physical hazard · Climate transition exposure · Environmental pressure · Governance weakness.

Indicatori

114

4 index domains

Hazard families

23

Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping · Frontier and exponential technology.

Metodi

41

Climate, nature and biodiversity · Policy, regulation and governance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
5
indici di dominio
114
indicators in scope
2
domini di pericolo
3
client groups

01Ambito

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which interventions are being proposed and tested?
  2. What governance exists?
  3. What are the stated physical and termination risks?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Climate intervention technologies index is built

Graph9 nodes
Grafo
01Indici di dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Indice
  1. Pericolo fisico climatico

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  2. Esposizione alla transizione climatica

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  3. Pressione ambientale

    Domain index · IDX · ENV
    0–10 index of environmental pressure and ecosystem condition combining air pollution, land and forest degradation, biodiversity status, ocean condition and waste pressure.
  4. Debolezza della governance

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  5. Rischio di concentrazione tecnologica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  6. Climate intervention technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-18
    Rimozione del carbonio e interventi climatici proposti: rischi fisici, di governance e di interruzione, letti solo da valutazioni pubblicate.
  7. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  9. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indici

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate intervention technologies index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Indice Valore Variazione Variazione % Intervallo al 90% Classe · probabilità Tendenza Intervallo
Pericolo fisico climaticoNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Esposizione alla transizione climaticaNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Pressione ambientaleNXS-GRX · ENV – – – – –
Debolezza della governanceNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Rischio di concentrazione tecnologicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Climate, Environment and biodiversity, Governance and institutions, Technology and frontier.

04Indicatori

114 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31ENV · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicatore Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unità Livelli Crosswalks
Punteggio dell'indicatore composito LIC-DSF (pubblicato, riferimento)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Esposizione bancaria verso settori ad alta intensità di carbonioIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Prestiti bancari esposti a un elevato rischio fisico climaticoIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Rendite da risorse naturali, quota del PILIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Dipendenza netta dalle importazioni di minerali criticiIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Emissioni totali di gas serra escluso il LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emissioni di gas serra pro capiteIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensità di carbonio del PILIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
Obiettivo di emissioni NDC 2030 per l'intera economiaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Piano nazionale di adattamento presentatoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Prontezza sociale per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Finanza internazionale per l'adattamento ricevuta pro capiteIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
Popolazione al di sotto dei 5 m di quota, quotaIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Frequenza della siccità meteorologica graveIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Siccità hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Giorni di caldo umido pericoloso all'annoIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Giorni con condizioni meteorologiche estreme per gli incendi all'annoIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ Incendio boschivo hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Superficie bruciata annua, quota della superficie terrestreIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share HAZ Incendio boschivo hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil
Esposizione al PM2.5, media ponderata per la popolazioneIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Qualità dell'aria hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Popolazione esposta oltre il valore guida OMS per il PM2.5, quotaIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Qualità dell'aria exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Esposizione stagionale ai picchi di ozonoIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Qualità dell'aria hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.land_area ENV Land and forests context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY WB_WDI AG.LND.TOTL.K2
Superficie forestale, quota della superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.forest_cover.share ENV Land and forests vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 15.1.1 WB_WDI AG.LND.FRST.ZS
Tasso annuo di perdita di copertura arboreaIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
Terreni degradati, quota della superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Densità stradaleIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Indice della Lista RossaIND.ENV.biodiversity.red_list_index ENV Biodiversità vulnerability 1 GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 15.5.1
Indice di integrità della biodiversitàIND.ENV.biodiversity.biodiversity_intactness ENV Biodiversità vulnerability 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Aree protette terrestri, quota della superficie terrestreIND.ENV.biodiversity.terrestrial_protected.share ENV Biodiversità response % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS
Aree chiave per la biodiversità coperte da aree protetteIND.ENV.biodiversity.key_biodiversity_area_protected.share ENV Biodiversità response % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 15.1.2
Aree marine protette, quota delle acque territorialiIND.ENV.ocean.marine_protected.share ENV Ocean response % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS SDG 14.5.1
Indice di eutrofizzazione costieraIND.ENV.ocean.coastal_eutrophication ENV Ocean hazard % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 14.1.1
Acidità marina media (pH)IND.ENV.ocean.ocean_acidity ENV Ocean hazard [pH] COUNTRY, REGION, SITE SDG 14.3.1
Stock ittici entro livelli biologicamente sostenibiliIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Giorni di ondata di calore marina all'annoIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
Rifiuti solidi urbani prodotti pro capiteIND.ENV.pollution.msw_generation.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, CITY
Rifiuti solidi urbani gestiti in impianti controllatiIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Rifiuti di plastica gestiti in modo inadeguato pro capiteIND.ENV.pollution.mismanaged_plastic_waste.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, ADM1
PIL in settori fortemente dipendenti dalla natura, quotaIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Valore della produzione agricola dipendente dall'impollinazione animale, quotaIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Corpi idrici con buona qualità ambientale dell'acquaIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share WAT Water quality vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.3.2
Flussi di acque reflue trattati in modo sicuroIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Indice di dipendenza da acque rinnovabili esterneIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Superficie di bacini transfrontalieri con cooperazione operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Incidenza della malariaIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Valore aggiunto di agricoltura, silvicoltura e pesca, quota del PILIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Occupazione in agricoltura, quota dell'occupazione totaleIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Variabilità della resa dei cereali (15 anni)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Terreni coltivati, quota della superficie terrestreIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index sui terreni coltivatiIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Seggi occupati da donne nel parlamento nazionaleIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Voce e responsabilità (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Stabilità politica e assenza di violenza (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Efficacia del governo (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controllo della corruzione (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Punteggio della libertà di stampa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Stato di diritto (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Diritti di proprietà e governance basata su regole (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Detenuti senza condanna, quota della popolazione carcerariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidenza della corruzione tra le impreseIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualità della regolamentazione (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Valutazione complessiva CPIA (indice di allocazione delle risorse IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA gestione e istituzioni del settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA trasparenza, responsabilità e corruzione nel settore pubblicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficienza nella mobilitazione delle entrate (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Scostamento dell'esecuzione del bilancio dal bilancio approvatoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Punteggio complessivo degli Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completezza della registrazione delle nasciteIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anni trascorsi dall'ultimo censimento della popolazioneIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Punteggio del contesto imprenditoriale (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Quota rinnovabile del consumo finale totale di energiaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensità di energia primaria del PILIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Quota fossile della generazione elettricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacità di generazione rinnovabile installata pro capiteIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Gradi giorno di riscaldamento e raffrescamentoIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentrazione dei fornitori di minerali critici importatiIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure legaliIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI pilastro delle misure organizzativeIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Legislazione sulla protezione dei dati e sulla privacy in vigoreIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Sviluppo dell'e-governmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Spesa interna lorda in R&S, quota del PILIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Ricercatori per milione di abitantiIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Esportazioni ad alta tecnologia, quota delle esportazioni manifatturiereIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentrazione dei fornitori di semiconduttori importatiIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di infrastrutture cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacità di calcolo per l'IA sotto controllo estero o di un unico fornitoreIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligenza artificiale vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentrazione dei fornitori di modelli di baseIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligenza artificiale vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisione di biosicurezza dei laboratori ad alto contenimentoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Strategia nazionale di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineata al Quadro di riferimento di Sendai per la riduzione del rischio di disastriIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governi locali con strategie di riduzione del rischio di disastri allineate alla strategia nazionaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
05Pericoli

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
PlanetaryFrontiera167HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 23 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famiglia Dominio Pericoli Count
Planetary boundary transgressions Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … 14
Ice tipping elements Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction 6
Ocean circulation and marine tipping Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation 7
Biome tipping elements Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift 5
Carbon-cycle feedbacks Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback 7
Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … 9
Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes Confini planetari e punti di non ritorno del sistema Terra Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … 10
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologie e biologia sintetica Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologie di intervento climatico Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologie di frontiera ed esponenziali Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Traiettorie

How this risk can move to 2100

FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
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funziona nel vostro browser

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
07Metodi

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

24 methods

Clima, natura e biodiversità

Climate Extremes · Chronic Climate Risk · Compound Climate Risk · Climate Scenario Ensemble · Climate Attribution Science · Land Cover Change · Deforestation …

17 methods

Politiche, regolamentazione e governance

Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

09Rapporti

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-18
Edition status
prevista
Oggetto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate intervention technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-18), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-18/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000105.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-18:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.ENV.biodiversity.environmental_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profili dei paesi Tutte le serie

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.