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Die Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · Exponential technology series

Climate intervention technologies

Carbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.

Construction Indicators Pathways
Page GRX-SER-XT-18Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-18 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domeinindekse

5

Climate physical hazard · Climate transition exposure · Environmental pressure · Governance weakness.

Aanwysers

114

4 index domains

Hazard families

23

Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping · Frontier and exponential technology.

Metodes

41

Climate, nature and biodiversity · Policy, regulation and governance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
5
domain indices
114
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01Omvang

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which interventions are being proposed and tested?
  2. What governance exists?
  3. What are the stated physical and termination risks?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Climate intervention technologies index is built

Graph9 nodes
Graph
01Domeinindekse
02Series index
03Readings

100%
List
  1. Climate physical hazard

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  2. Climate transition exposure

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  3. Environmental pressure

    Domain index · IDX · ENV
    0–10 index of environmental pressure and ecosystem condition combining air pollution, land and forest degradation, biodiversity status, ocean condition and waste pressure.
  4. Governance weakness

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  5. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  6. Climate intervention technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-18
    Carbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.
  7. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  9. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indekse

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate intervention technologies index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Indeks Value Change Change % 90% interval Class · probability Trend Range
Climate physical hazardNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Climate transition exposureNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Environmental pressureNXS-GRX · ENV – – – – –
Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Climate, Environment and biodiversity, Governance and institutions, Technology and frontier.

04Aanwysers

114 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31ENV · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicator Domain Sub-domain Component Unit Vlakke Crosswalks
LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectorsIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Natural-resource rents, share of GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Surface warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
Change in annual precipitationIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Relative sea-level rise rateIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Hottest day of the year (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Share of warm days (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Change in very hot days (35 °C or more)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Warm spell duration (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Wettest day of the year (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Wettest five days of the year (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Precipitation from very wet days (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Longest dry spell (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Projected warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Projected change in hottest-day temperatureIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Projected change in wettest five-day precipitationIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Projected relative sea-level riseIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, shareIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Greenhouse gas emissions per capitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Fossil-fuel rents, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 economy-wide emissions targetIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
National adaptation plan submittedIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
International adaptation finance received per capitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
Population below 5 m elevation, shareIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Frequency of severe meteorological droughtIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Droogte hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Days of dangerous humid heat per yearIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Extreme fire-weather days per yearIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ Veldbrand hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Annual burned area, share of land areaIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share HAZ Veldbrand hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil
PM2.5 exposure, population-weighted meanIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Air quality hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Population exposed above the WHO PM2.5 guideline, shareIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Air quality exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Seasonal peak ozone exposureIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Air quality hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Land areaIND.ENV.land.land_area ENV Land and forests context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY WB_WDI AG.LND.TOTL.K2
Forest area, share of land areaIND.ENV.land.forest_cover.share ENV Land and forests vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 15.1.1 WB_WDI AG.LND.FRST.ZS
Annual tree cover loss rateIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
Degraded land, share of land areaIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Road densityIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Red List IndexIND.ENV.biodiversity.red_list_index ENV Biodiversiteit vulnerability 1 GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 15.5.1
Biodiversity Intactness IndexIND.ENV.biodiversity.biodiversity_intactness ENV Biodiversiteit vulnerability 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Terrestrial protected areas, share of land areaIND.ENV.biodiversity.terrestrial_protected.share ENV Biodiversiteit response % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS
Key biodiversity areas covered by protected areasIND.ENV.biodiversity.key_biodiversity_area_protected.share ENV Biodiversiteit response % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 15.1.2
Marine protected areas, share of territorial watersIND.ENV.ocean.marine_protected.share ENV Ocean response % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS SDG 14.5.1
Coastal eutrophication indexIND.ENV.ocean.coastal_eutrophication ENV Ocean hazard % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 14.1.1
Average marine acidity (pH)IND.ENV.ocean.ocean_acidity ENV Ocean hazard [pH] COUNTRY, REGION, SITE SDG 14.3.1
Fish stocks within biologically sustainable levelsIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Marine heatwave days per yearIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
Municipal solid waste generated per capitaIND.ENV.pollution.msw_generation.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, CITY
Municipal solid waste managed in controlled facilitiesIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Mismanaged plastic waste per capitaIND.ENV.pollution.mismanaged_plastic_waste.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, ADM1
GDP in sectors highly dependent on nature, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Crop production value dependent on animal pollination, shareIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Water bodies with good ambient water qualityIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share WAT Water quality vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.3.2
Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Malaria incidenceIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Agriculture, forestry and fishing value added, share of GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Cereal yield variability (15-year)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Cropland, share of land areaIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index on croplandIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI organisational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Kunsmatige intelligensie vulnerability % COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Kunsmatige intelligensie vulnerability % COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
05Gevare

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
PlanetaryFrontier167HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 23 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Family Domain Gevare Count
Planetary boundary transgressions Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … 14
Ice tipping elements Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction 6
Ocean circulation and marine tipping Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation 7
Biome tipping elements Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift 5
Carbon-cycle feedbacks Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback 7
Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … 9
Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … 10
AI system failure and misalignment Frontier and exponential technology AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Frontier and exponential technology Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Frontier and exponential technology AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Frontier and exponential technology Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Frontier and exponential technology Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Frontier and exponential technology Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology Frontier and exponential technology Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Frontier and exponential technology Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Frontier and exponential technology Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Frontier and exponential technology Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Climate intervention technologies Frontier and exponential technology Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Frontier and exponential technology Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Frontier and exponential technology Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Frontier and exponential technology 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Frontier and exponential technology Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Frontier and exponential technology Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Leerpaaie

How this risk can move to 2100

FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
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runs in your browser

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
07Metodes

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

24 methods

Climate, nature and biodiversity

Climate Extremes · Chronic Climate Risk · Compound Climate Risk · Climate Scenario Ensemble · Climate Attribution Science · Land Cover Change · Deforestation …

17 methods

Policy, regulation and governance

Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

09Verslae

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-18
Edition status
planned
Onderwerp
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate intervention technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-18), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-18/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000105.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-18:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.ENV.biodiversity.environmental_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Landprofiele Alle reekse

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

Wat NXS-GRX nie is nie

NXS-GRX is navorsings- en risiko-analise-inligting. Dit is nie 'n krediet- of ESG-gradering nie en gebruik geen graderingskaal nie, nie 'n maatstaf vir finansiële instrumente nie, nie amptelike statistiek nie, nie 'n noodwaarskuwing of amptelike klassifikasie nie, en nie advies nie. Dit mag nie gebruik word om natuurlike persone te evalueer nie. Risikoklasse is bande op 'n gepubliseerde skaal, nooit ranglyste van lande of mense nie.

Instellings en bronne

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.