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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · Exponential technology series

Teknolojiyên destwerdana avhewayê

Carbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.

Construction Indicators Pathways
Page GRX-SER-XT-18Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-18 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Îndeksên waran

5

Climate physical hazard · Climate transition exposure · Environmental pressure · Governance weakness.

Nîşander

114

4 index domains

Hazard families

23

Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping · Frontier and exponential technology.

Rêbaz

41

Climate, nature and biodiversity · Policy, regulation and governance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
5
domain indices
114
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
3
client groups

01Çarçove

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which interventions are being proposed and tested?
  2. What governance exists?
  3. What are the stated physical and termination risks?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Climate intervention technologies index is built

Graph9 nodes
Grafîk
01Îndeksên waran
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Lîste
  1. Climate physical hazard

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  2. Climate transition exposure

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  3. Environmental pressure

    Domain index · IDX · ENV
    0–10 index of environmental pressure and ecosystem condition combining air pollution, land and forest degradation, biodiversity status, ocean condition and waste pressure.
  4. Governance weakness

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  5. Technology concentration risk

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  6. Climate intervention technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-18
    Carbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.
  7. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  9. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runDi pêvajoyê deQediya
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Îndeks

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate intervention technologies index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Navnîşan Nirx Guhertin Guhertin % 90% interval Class · probability Meyl Navber
Climate physical hazardNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Climate transition exposureNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Environmental pressureNXS-GRX · ENV – – – – –
Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Climate, Environment and biodiversity, Governance and institutions, Technology and frontier.

04Nîşander

114 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31ENV · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Nîşander Qad Sub-domain Component Yekîne Ast Crosswalks
Puana nîşanderê hevedudanî ya LIC-DSF (weşandî, referans)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Rûbirûbûna bankan bi sektorên bi karbona zêdeIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Deyndayîna bankan a li ber xetera avhewayî ya fîzîkî ya bilindIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Kirêyên çavkaniyên xwezayî, para GDPIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Girêdayîbûna net bi îthalatê ji bo mîneralên girîngIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Germbûna rûyê erdê ji serdema berî pîşesaziyêIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
Guherîna barana salaneIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Rêjeya bilindbûna nisbî ya asta deryayêIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Germtirîn roja salê (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Para rojên germ (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Guherîna rojên pir germ (35 °C an zêdetir)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Dirêjahiya demên germ (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Şiltirîn roja salê (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Şiltirîn pênc rojên salê (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Barana ji rojên pir şil (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Dirêjtirîn dema hişk (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Germbûna pêşbînîkirî ji serdema berî pîşesaziyêIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Guherîna pêşbînîkirî ya germahiya roja herî germIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Guherîna pêşbînîkirî ya barana pênc rojên herî şilIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Bilindbûna nisbî ya pêşbînîkirî ya asta deryayêIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Nifûsa li jêr asta lehiya peravê ya 100 salî ya pêşerojê, paraIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Tevahiya emîsyonên gazên serayê bêyî LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emîsyonên gazên serayê ji bo her kesîIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Tundiya karbonê ya GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Kirêyên sotemeniyên fosîl, para GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Hinardekirina sotemeniyê, para hinardekirina kelûmelanIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Sûbvansiyonên eşkere yên sotemeniyên fosîl, para GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
Armanca emîsyonan a NDC 2030 ji bo tevahiya aboriyêIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Plana neteweyî ya lihevhatinê hatiye şandinIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Amadebûna aborî ji bo veberhênana lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Amadebûna rêveberiyê ji bo lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Amadebûna civakî ji bo lihevhatinêIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Darayiya navneteweyî ya lihevhatinê ya wergirtî ji bo her kesîIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
Nifûsa li jêr bilindahiya 5 m, paraIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Pirbûna hişkesaliya meteorolojîk a dijwarIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Hişkesalî hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Rojên germahiya şil a xeternak di salê deIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Rojên hewaya şewatê ya tund di salê deIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ Agirê daristanan hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Rûerda şewitî ya salane, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share HAZ Agirê daristanan hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil
Rûbirûbûna PM2.5, navgîniya li gorî nifûsêIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Air quality hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Nifûsa li ser rêbera PM2.5 ya WHO, paraIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Air quality exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Rûbirûbûna ozonê ya herî bilind a demsalîIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Air quality hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Rûerda bejahiyêIND.ENV.land.land_area ENV Land and forests context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY WB_WDI AG.LND.TOTL.K2
Rûerda daristanê, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.ENV.land.forest_cover.share ENV Land and forests vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 15.1.1 WB_WDI AG.LND.FRST.ZS
Rêjeya salane ya windabûna daranIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
Erda xirabbûyî, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Çirbûna rêyanIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Îndeksa Lîsteya SorIND.ENV.biodiversity.red_list_index ENV Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran vulnerability 1 GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 15.5.1
Îndeksa Tevahîbûna Cûrbecûrbûna JîndaranIND.ENV.biodiversity.biodiversity_intactness ENV Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran vulnerability 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Herêmên parastî yên bejahiyê, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.ENV.biodiversity.terrestrial_protected.share ENV Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran response % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS
Herêmên girîng ên cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran ku ji aliyê herêmên parastî ve têne pêgirtinIND.ENV.biodiversity.key_biodiversity_area_protected.share ENV Cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran response % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 15.1.2
Herêmên parastî yên deryayî, para avên herêmîIND.ENV.ocean.marine_protected.share ENV Ocean response % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS SDG 14.5.1
Îndeksa ewtrofîkasyona peravêIND.ENV.ocean.coastal_eutrophication ENV Ocean hazard % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 14.1.1
Navgîniya asîdîtiya deryayê (pH)IND.ENV.ocean.ocean_acidity ENV Ocean hazard [pH] COUNTRY, REGION, SITE SDG 14.3.1
Stokên masiyan di nav astên bîyolojîk ên domdar deIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Rojên pêla germê ya deryayî di salê deIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
Bermahiyên hişk ên şaredariyê ji bo her kesîIND.ENV.pollution.msw_generation.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, CITY
Bermahiyên hişk ên şaredariyê ku di saziyên kontrolkirî de têne birêvebirinIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Bermahiyên plastîk ên xirab birêvebirî ji bo her kesîIND.ENV.pollution.mismanaged_plastic_waste.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, ADM1
GDP ya di sektorên pir girêdayî xwezayê de, paraIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Nirxa berhemên çandiniyê ya girêdayî tozkirina ajalan, paraIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Avên bi kalîteya baş a ava hawirdorêIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share WAT Water quality vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.3.2
Herikînên ava qirêj ên bi ewlehî paqijkirîIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Rêjeya girêdayîbûnê bi ava nûbûyî ya derveIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Rûerda hewzên sînorbirr bi hevkariya çalakIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Bûyerên malaryayêIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Nirxa zêdekirî ya çandinî, daristanî û masîgiriyê, para GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Kar di çandiniyê de, para tevahiya karanIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Guhêrbariya berhema dexlê (15 salî)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Erda çandiniyê, para rûerda bejahiyêIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Vegetation Health Index li ser erda çandiniyêIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Kursiyên jinan di parlamentoya neteweyî deIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Deng û berpirsiyarî (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Aramiya siyasî û nebûna tundiyê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Bandorkariya hikûmetê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Kontrolkirina gendeliyê (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Îndeksa Têgihîştina Gendeliyê (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Puana azadiya çapemeniyê (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Serweriya qanûnê (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Mafên milkiyetê û rêveberiya li ser bingeha qaîdeyan (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Girtiyên bê biryara dadgehê, para nifûsa girtîgehanIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Belavbûna bertîlê di nav pargîdaniyan deIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Kalîteya rêziknameyan (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Nirxandina giştî ya CPIA (îndeksa dabeşkirina çavkaniyên IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA birêvebirina sektora giştî û sazîIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA şefafî, berpirsiyarî û gendelî di sektora giştî deIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Kêrhatîbûna komkirina dahatê (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Dûrketina pêkanîna budceyê ji budceya pejirandîIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Puana giştî ya Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Temambûna tomarkirina zayînêIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Sal ji serjimêriya nifûsê ya dawî veIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Puana jîngeha karsaziyê (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Para nûbûyî di tevahiya xerckirina enerjiyê ya dawî deIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Tundiya enerjiya seretayî ya GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Para fosîl di hilberîna elektrîkê deIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Kapasîteya hilberîna nûbûyî ya sazkirî ji bo her kesîIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Rojên derece yên germkirin û sarkirinêIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata mîneralên girîngIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Stûna tedbîrên qanûnî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Stûna tedbîrên rêxistinî ya ITU GCIIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Qanûnên parastina daneyan û nepeniyê di meriyetê deIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pêşketina hikûmeta elektronîkIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Lêçûnên navxweyî yên gelemperî li ser R&D, para GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Lêkoler ji her milyon niştecîhîIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Hinardekirina teknolojiya bilind, para hinardekirina berhemên çêkirîIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Komkirina dabînkerên îthalata nîvguheykeranIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên binesaziya ewrIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Kapasîteya hesabkirina AI ya di bin kontrola biyanî an yek pêşkêşkerî deIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Komkirina pêşkêşkerên modelên bingehînIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Zîrekiya çêkirî vulnerability % COUNTRY
Çavdêriya ewlehiya bîyolojîk û parastina bîyolojîk a laboratuwarên astengiya bilindIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnology coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Stratejiya neteweyî ya DRR li gorî Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Hikûmetên herêmî yên bi stratejiyên DRR li gorî stratejiya neteweyîIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
05Metirsî

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
PlanetaryPêşeng167HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 23 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Malbat Qad Metirsî Count
Planetary boundary transgressions Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … 14
Ice tipping elements Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction 6
Ocean circulation and marine tipping Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation 7
Biome tipping elements Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift 5
Carbon-cycle feedbacks Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback 7
Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … 9
Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes Sînorên gerstêrkî û biqelibîna pergala Erdê Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … 10
AI system failure and misalignment Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnology and synthetic biology Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Teknolojiyên destwerdana avhewayê Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Teknolojiya sînor û êkspôneşiyal Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Rê

How this risk can move to 2100

FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
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runs in your browser

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
07Rêbaz

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

24 methods

Avhewa, xweza û cûrbecûrbûna jîndaran

Climate Extremes · Chronic Climate Risk · Compound Climate Risk · Climate Scenario Ensemble · Climate Attribution Science · Land Cover Change · Deforestation …

17 methods

Siyaset, rêkxistin û rêveberî

Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

09Rapor

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-18
Edition status
plankirî
Mijar
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Jêgirtin

Jêgirtin û ji nû ve bikaranîn

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate intervention technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-18), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-18/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000105.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-18:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.ENV.biodiversity.environmental_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Profîlên welatan Hemû rêze

Rewş

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NXS-GRX çi nîne

NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.

Sazî û çavkanî

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

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Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.