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El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · Exponential technology series

Tecnologías de intervención climática

Eliminación de carbono e intervenciones climáticas propuestas: riesgos físicos, de gobernanza y de interrupción, leídos solo a partir de evaluaciones publicadas.

Construction Indicators Pathways
Page GRX-SER-XT-18Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-18 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de dominio

5

Climate physical hazard · Climate transition exposure · Environmental pressure · Governance weakness.

Indicadores

114

4 index domains

Hazard families

23

Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping · Frontier and exponential technology.

Métodos

41

Climate, nature and biodiversity · Policy, regulation and governance.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
5
índices temáticos
114
indicators in scope
2
ámbitos de amenaza
3
client groups

01Alcance

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which interventions are being proposed and tested?
  2. What governance exists?
  3. What are the stated physical and termination risks?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Climate intervention technologies index is built

Graph9 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Amenaza física climática

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  2. Exposición a la transición climática

    Domain index · IDX · CLI
    0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
  3. Presión ambiental

    Domain index · IDX · ENV
    0–10 index of environmental pressure and ecosystem condition combining air pollution, land and forest degradation, biodiversity status, ocean condition and waste pressure.
  4. Debilidad de la gobernanza

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  5. Riesgo de concentración tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  6. Climate intervention technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-18
    Eliminación de carbono e intervenciones climáticas propuestas: riesgos físicos, de gobernanza y de interrupción, leídos solo a partir de evaluaciones publicadas.
  7. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  9. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate intervention technologies index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
Índice Valor Variación Variación % Intervalo del 90 % Clase · probabilidad Tendencia Rango
Amenaza física climáticaNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Exposición a la transición climáticaNXS-GRX · CLI – – – – –
Presión ambientalNXS-GRX · ENV – – – – –
Debilidad de la gobernanzaNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Climate, Environment and biodiversity, Governance and institutions, Technology and frontier.

04Indicadores

114 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31ENV · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unidad Niveles Crosswalks
Puntuación del indicador compuesto del LIC-DSF (publicada, referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Exposición bancaria a sectores intensivos en carbonoIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Préstamos bancarios expuestos a un alto riesgo físico climáticoIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Rentas de los recursos naturales, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Calentamiento de la superficie desde la era preindustrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial CLI Chronic physical change hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID FAO_FAOSTAT ET
Cambio en la precipitación anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change CLI Chronic physical change hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Tasa de aumento relativo del nivel del marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend CLI Chronic physical change hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Día más caluroso del año (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx CLI Acute climate extremes hazard Cel COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Proporción de días cálidos (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Cambio en los días muy calurosos (35 °C o más)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Duración de los periodos cálidos (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Día más lluvioso del año (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Cinco días más lluviosos del año (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day CLI Acute climate extremes hazard mm COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Precipitación de días muy lluviosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share CLI Acute climate extremes hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Periodo seco más largo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days CLI Acute climate extremes hazard d COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Calentamiento proyectado desde la era preindustrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming CLI Scenario projections hazard K GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Cambio proyectado en la temperatura del día más calurosoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change CLI Scenario projections hazard K COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Cambio proyectado en la precipitación de los cinco días más lluviososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change CLI Scenario projections hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Aumento relativo proyectado del nivel del marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise CLI Scenario projections hazard m COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Población por debajo del futuro nivel de inundación costera de 100 años, proporciónIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share CLI Scenario projections exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Emisiones totales de gases de efecto invernadero sin UTCUTSIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero per cápitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita CLI Emissions exposure t/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensidad de carbono del PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rentas de los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Exportaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Subsidios explícitos a los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
Meta de emisiones de la CDN 2030 para toda la economíaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition CLI Transition exposure response % COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Plan nacional de adaptación presentadoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {bool} COUNTRY SDG 13.2.1
Preparación económica para la inversión en adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Preparación de la gobernanza para la adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Preparación social para la adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Financiación internacional para la adaptación recibida per cápitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity [USD] COUNTRY
Población por debajo de 5 m de altitud, proporciónIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share HAZ Coastal and sea level exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Frecuencia de sequía meteorológica graveIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Sequía hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Días de calor húmedo peligroso al añoIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Días con condiciones meteorológicas extremas de incendio al añoIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days HAZ Incendios forestales hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Superficie quemada anual, porcentaje de la superficie terrestreIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share HAZ Incendios forestales hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil
Exposición a PM2.5, media ponderada por poblaciónIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Calidad del aire hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
Población expuesta por encima de la directriz de la OMS sobre PM2.5, proporciónIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Calidad del aire exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Exposición estacional máxima al ozonoIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Calidad del aire hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.land_area ENV Land and forests context km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY WB_WDI AG.LND.TOTL.K2
Superficie forestal, porcentaje de la superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.forest_cover.share ENV Land and forests vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 15.1.1 WB_WDI AG.LND.FRST.ZS
Tasa anual de pérdida de cubierta arbóreaIND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID EPI TCL
Tierras degradadas, porcentaje de la superficie terrestreIND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share ENV Land and forests hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID SDG 15.3.1
Densidad de carreterasIND.ENV.land.road_density ENV Land and forests hazard km/km2 COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Índice de la Lista RojaIND.ENV.biodiversity.red_list_index ENV Biodiversidad vulnerability 1 GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 15.5.1
Índice de integridad de la biodiversidadIND.ENV.biodiversity.biodiversity_intactness ENV Biodiversidad vulnerability 1 COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Áreas protegidas terrestres, porcentaje de la superficie terrestreIND.ENV.biodiversity.terrestrial_protected.share ENV Biodiversidad response % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS
Áreas clave para la biodiversidad cubiertas por áreas protegidasIND.ENV.biodiversity.key_biodiversity_area_protected.share ENV Biodiversidad response % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 15.1.2
Áreas marinas protegidas, porcentaje de las aguas territorialesIND.ENV.ocean.marine_protected.share ENV Ocean response % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS SDG 14.5.1
Índice de eutrofización costeraIND.ENV.ocean.coastal_eutrophication ENV Ocean hazard % COUNTRY, REGION SDG 14.1.1
Acidez marina media (pH)IND.ENV.ocean.ocean_acidity ENV Ocean hazard [pH] COUNTRY, REGION, SITE SDG 14.3.1
Poblaciones de peces dentro de niveles biológicamente sosteniblesIND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share ENV Ocean vulnerability % GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY SDG 14.4.1
Días de ola de calor marina al añoIND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days ENV Ocean hazard d/a COUNTRY, REGION, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708
Residuos sólidos municipales generados per cápitaIND.ENV.pollution.msw_generation.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, CITY
Residuos sólidos municipales gestionados en instalaciones controladasIND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share ENV Pollution and waste coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW
Residuos plásticos mal gestionados per cápitaIND.ENV.pollution.mismanaged_plastic_waste.pc ENV Pollution and waste hazard kg/a/{person} COUNTRY, ADM1
PIB en sectores muy dependientes de la naturaleza, proporciónIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Valor de la producción agrícola dependiente de la polinización animal, proporciónIND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Masas de agua con buena calidad ambientalIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share WAT Water quality vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.3.2
Aguas residuales tratadas de forma seguraIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Tasa de dependencia del agua renovable externaIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Superficie de cuencas transfronterizas con cooperación operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Incidencia de la malariaIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Valor añadido de la agricultura, la silvicultura y la pesca, porcentaje del PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
Empleo en la agricultura, porcentaje del empleo totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Variabilidad del rendimiento de los cereales (15 años)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY
Tierras de cultivo, porcentaje de la superficie terrestreIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share FOO Agricultural production and dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
Índice de Salud de la Vegetación en tierras de cultivoIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index FOO Agricultural production and dependence hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
Escaños ocupados por mujeres en el parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Voz y rendición de cuentas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Estabilidad política y ausencia de violencia (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Eficacia del gobierno (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control de la corrupción (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Índice de Percepción de la Corrupción (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Puntuación de libertad de prensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estado de derecho (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Derechos de propiedad y gobernanza basada en normas (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Detenidos sin condena, porcentaje de la población penitenciariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidencia del soborno entre las empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Calidad regulatoria (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Calificación general de la CPIA (índice de asignación de recursos de la AIF)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA: gestión del sector público e institucionesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA: transparencia, rendición de cuentas y corrupción en el sector públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Eficiencia de la movilización de ingresos (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desviación de la ejecución presupuestaria respecto del presupuesto aprobadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Puntuación general de los Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Exhaustividad del registro de nacimientosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Años desde el último censo de poblaciónIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Puntuación del entorno empresarial (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Grados-día de calefacción y refrigeraciónIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Pilar de medidas jurídicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas organizativas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Legislación vigente de protección de datos y privacidadIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Desarrollo del gobierno electrónicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gasto interno bruto en I+D, porcentaje del PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Investigadores por millón de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportaciones de alta tecnología, porcentaje de las exportaciones de manufacturasIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de semiconductoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de infraestructura en la nubeIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidad de cómputo de IA bajo control extranjero o de un único proveedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligencia artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de modelos fundacionalesIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligencia artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisión de la bioseguridad y la bioprotección de los laboratorios de alta contenciónIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnología coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estrategia nacional de RRD alineada con el Marco de Sendai para la Reducción del Riesgo de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Gobiernos locales con estrategias de RRD alineadas con la estrategia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
05Amenazas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
PlanetaryFrontera167HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 23 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Familia Dominio Amenazas Count
Planetary boundary transgressions Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … 14
Ice tipping elements Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction 6
Ocean circulation and marine tipping Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation 7
Biome tipping elements Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift 5
Carbon-cycle feedbacks Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback 7
Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … 9
Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes Límites planetarios y puntos de inflexión del sistema Tierra Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … 10
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnología y biología sintética Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologías de intervención climática Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Trayectorias

How this risk can move to 2100

FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
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se ejecuta en su navegador

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
07Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

24 methods

Clima, naturaleza y biodiversidad

Climate Extremes · Chronic Climate Risk · Compound Climate Risk · Climate Scenario Ensemble · Climate Attribution Science · Land Cover Change · Deforestation …

17 methods

Políticas, regulación y gobernanza

Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …

08Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

09Informes

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-18
Edition status
prevista
Asunto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

10Citar

Citar y reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate intervention technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-18), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-18/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000105.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-18:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.ENV.biodiversity.environmental_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Perfiles de país Todas las series

Estado

La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.

Lo que NXS-GRX no es

NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.

Instituciones y fuentes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.