The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · Exponential technology series
气候干预技术
碳移除和拟议的气候干预措施：物理、治理和终止风险，仅依据已发表的评估解读。
Page GRX-SER-XT-18Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-18 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
领域指数
5
Climate physical hazard · Climate transition exposure · Environmental pressure · Governance weakness.
指标
114
4 index domains
Hazard families
23
Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping · Frontier and exponential technology.
方法
41
Climate, nature and biodiversity · Policy, regulation and governance.
5
领域指数
114
indicators in scope
2
危害领域
3
client groups
01范围
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which interventions are being proposed and tested?
- What governance exists?
- What are the stated physical and termination risks?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Climate intervention technologies index is built
Graph9 nodes
流程图
01领域指数
02Series index
03Readings
100%
索引
-
气候物理危害Domain index · IDX · CLI0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
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气候转型暴露Domain index · IDX · CLI0–10 index of an economy’s exposure to a low-carbon transition, combining transition exposure (fossil rents, fuel exports, subsidies) and emissions intensity (per capita and per unit of GDP).
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环境压力Domain index · IDX · ENV0–10 index of environmental pressure and ecosystem condition combining air pollution, land and forest degradation, biodiversity status, ocean condition and waste pressure.
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治理薄弱Domain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
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技术集中风险Domain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Climate intervention technologies indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-18碳移除和拟议的气候干预措施：物理、治理和终止风险，仅依据已发表的评估解读。
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
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Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未运行进行中已完成
03指数
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-18 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate intervention technologies index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
| 指数 | 数值 | 变化 | 变化 % | 90% 区间 | 类别 · 概率 | 趋势 | 范围 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
气候物理危害NXS-GRX · CLI |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
气候转型暴露NXS-GRX · CLI |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
环境压力NXS-GRX · ENV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
治理薄弱NXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
技术集中风险NXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Climate, Environment and biodiversity, Governance and institutions, Technology and frontier.
04指标
114 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LIC-DSF 综合指标得分（已发布，参考）IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
银行对碳密集行业的风险暴露IND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure |
FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
面临高物理气候风险的银行贷款IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending |
FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
自然资源租金，占 GDP 比重IND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
关键矿产净进口依赖度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
相对工业化前的地表升温IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
年降水量变化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
相对海平面上升速率IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend |
CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
年内最热日（TXx）IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
暖日占比（TX90p）IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
酷热日数变化（35 °C 及以上）IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
暖期持续时间（WSDI）IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
年内最大日降水量（Rx1day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
年内最大五日降水量（Rx5day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
极端湿润日降水量（R95pTOT）IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最长连续干旱日数（CDD）IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share |
CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % |
SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
相对工业化前的预估升温IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最热日气温预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最大五日降水量预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
预估相对海平面上升IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise |
CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
低于未来 100 年一遇沿海洪水水位的人口占比IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share |
CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
温室气体排放总量（不含 LULUCF）IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
人均温室气体排放量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
GDP 碳强度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
化石燃料租金，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
燃料出口，占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
显性化石燃料补贴，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
NDC 2030 全经济范围排放目标IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition |
CLI | Transition exposure | response | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
已提交国家适应计划IND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
适应的社会准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
人均获得的国际适应资金IND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] |
COUNTRY | |
海拔 5 m 以下人口占比IND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share |
HAZ | Coastal and sea level | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
严重气象干旱频率IND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency |
HAZ | 干旱 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
每年危险湿热日数IND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days |
HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
每年极端火险天气日数IND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days |
HAZ | 野火 | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
年过火面积，占陆地面积比重IND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share |
HAZ | 野火 | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil |
PM2.5 风险暴露，人口加权平均值IND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure |
ENV | 空气质量 | hazard | ug/m3 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
暴露浓度高于 WHO PM2.5 指导值的人口占比IND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share |
ENV | 空气质量 | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
季节性臭氧峰值风险暴露IND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure |
ENV | 空气质量 | hazard | [ppb] |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
陆地面积IND.ENV.land.land_area |
ENV | Land and forests | context | km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY | WB_WDI AG.LND.TOTL.K2 |
森林面积，占陆地面积比重IND.ENV.land.forest_cover.share |
ENV | Land and forests | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 15.1.1 WB_WDI AG.LND.FRST.ZS |
年树木覆盖损失率IND.ENV.land.tree_cover_loss.share |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | EPI TCL |
退化土地，占陆地面积比重IND.ENV.land.land_degradation.share |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | SDG 15.3.1 |
道路密度IND.ENV.land.road_density |
ENV | Land and forests | hazard | km/km2 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
红色名录指数IND.ENV.biodiversity.red_list_index |
ENV | 生物多样性 | vulnerability | 1 |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 15.5.1 |
生物多样性完整性指数IND.ENV.biodiversity.biodiversity_intactness |
ENV | 生物多样性 | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
陆地保护区，占陆地面积比重IND.ENV.biodiversity.terrestrial_protected.share |
ENV | 生物多样性 | response | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI ER.LND.PTLD.ZS |
保护区覆盖的关键生物多样性区域IND.ENV.biodiversity.key_biodiversity_area_protected.share |
ENV | 生物多样性 | response | % |
COUNTRY, REGION | SDG 15.1.2 |
海洋保护区，占领海面积比重IND.ENV.ocean.marine_protected.share |
ENV | Ocean | response | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS SDG 14.5.1 |
沿海富营养化指数IND.ENV.ocean.coastal_eutrophication |
ENV | Ocean | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, REGION | SDG 14.1.1 |
平均海洋酸度（pH）IND.ENV.ocean.ocean_acidity |
ENV | Ocean | hazard | [pH] |
COUNTRY, REGION, SITE | SDG 14.3.1 |
处于生物可持续水平内的鱼类种群IND.ENV.ocean.sustainable_fish_stocks.share |
ENV | Ocean | vulnerability | % |
GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY | SDG 14.4.1 |
每年海洋热浪日数IND.ENV.ocean.marine_heatwave_days |
ENV | Ocean | hazard | d/a |
COUNTRY, REGION, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0708 |
人均城市固体废物产生量IND.ENV.pollution.msw_generation.pc |
ENV | Pollution and waste | hazard | kg/a/{person} |
COUNTRY, CITY | |
在受控设施中处理的城市固体废物IND.ENV.pollution.msw_controlled_management.share |
ENV | Pollution and waste | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 11.6.1 EPI MSW |
人均管理不善的塑料废物IND.ENV.pollution.mismanaged_plastic_waste.pc |
ENV | Pollution and waste | hazard | kg/a/{person} |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
高度依赖自然的行业 GDP 占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | |
依赖动物授粉的作物产值占比IND.ENV.nature_dependence.pollinator_dependent_crops.share |
ENV | Nature dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
环境水质良好的水体IND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share |
WAT | Water quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.3.2 |
经安全处理的废水IND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share |
WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
对外部可再生水的依赖率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
有运作中合作安排的跨界流域面积IND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
疟疾发病率IND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence |
HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
农业就业，占总就业比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
谷物单产波动性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
耕地，占陆地面积比重IND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
耕地植被健康指数IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | |
国家议会中女性所占席位IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
话语权和问责（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
政治稳定和无暴力（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
政府效能（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
腐败控制（WGI）IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
清廉指数（透明国际）IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
新闻自由得分（RSF）IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
法治（WGI）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
产权和基于规则的治理（CPIA）IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
未判决被拘留者，占在押人口比重IND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
企业行贿发生率IND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
监管质量（WGI）IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
CPIA 总体评级（IDA 资源分配指数）IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门管理和机构IND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA 公共部门透明度、问责和腐败IND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
收入动员效率（CPIA）IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
预算执行与核定预算的偏差IND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
统计绩效指标总得分IND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
出生登记完整性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
距上次人口普查的年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
营商环境得分（B-READY）IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
可再生能源在最终能源消费总量中的占比IND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
GDP 一次能源强度IND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
化石能源发电占比IND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
人均可再生能源装机容量IND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
采暖和制冷度日数IND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days |
ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
关键矿产进口供应方集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
ITU GCI 法律措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
ITU GCI 组织措施支柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
数据保护和隐私立法已生效IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
电子政务发展IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
研发总支出，占 GDP 比重IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
每百万居民研究人员数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
高技术出口，占制成品出口比重IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
半导体进口供应方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
云基础设施提供方集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
受外国或单一提供方控制的 AI 算力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
基础模型提供方集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | 人工智能 | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
高等级防护实验室的生物安全和生物安保监督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | 生物技术 | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
05危害
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| 类别 | 领域 | 危害 | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Planetary boundary transgressions | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … | 14 |
| Ice tipping elements | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction | 6 |
| Ocean circulation and marine tipping | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation | 7 |
| Biome tipping elements | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift | 5 |
| Carbon-cycle feedbacks | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback | 7 |
| Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … | 9 |
| Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes | 行星边界与地球系统临界点 | Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … | 10 |
| AI system failure and misalignment | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | 前沿与指数型技术 | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | 前沿与指数型技术 | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | 前沿与指数型技术 | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | 前沿与指数型技术 | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| 生物技术与合成生物学 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | 前沿与指数型技术 | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | 前沿与指数型技术 | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | 前沿与指数型技术 | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| 气候干预技术 | 前沿与指数型技术 | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | 前沿与指数型技术 | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | 前沿与指数型技术 | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | 前沿与指数型技术 | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | 前沿与指数型技术 | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | 前沿与指数型技术 | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
06路径
How this risk can move to 2100
FIG 5 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
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07方法
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
24 methods
气候、自然与生物多样性
Climate Extremes · Chronic Climate Risk · Compound Climate Risk · Climate Scenario Ensemble · Climate Attribution Science · Land Cover Change · Deforestation …
17 methods
政策、监管与治理
Scenario Counterfactual · Regulatory Change Risk · Policy Uncertainty · Policy Effectiveness · Implementation Gap · Regulatory Exposure · Compliance Obligation Mapping …
08Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.
09报告
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-18- Edition status
- 计划中
- 主题
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate intervention technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-18), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-18/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000105.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-18:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.CLI.transition.transition_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.ENV.biodiversity.environmental_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.