The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CRS · LCC Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
缺乏应对能力指数
Index on a 0–10 scale of the absence of DRR governance, early warning, risk financing and response capacity (each inverted), together with transport and digital connectivity deficits; higher means less able to cope.
Page GRX-IDX-CRSEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CRS.response.lack_of_coping_capacityValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
不确定性
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
结构
6 components
26 leaf indicators
覆盖范围
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 30%
26
leaf indicators
6
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
3
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
The NIS analogue of the INFORM Lack of Coping Capacity dimension, built on Sendai E-G and disaster risk finance; health-system access enters through HLT composites in profiles rather than being duplicated here.
computation
How Lack of coping capacity is computedGraph35 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
- 与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略Indicator · IND · scoreScore (0–1) of how far the national disaster risk reduction strategy is adopted and implemented in line with the Sendai Framework, assessed against its ten key elements.
- 拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府Indicator · IND · %Share of local governments that have adopted and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the national strategy.
- 多危害监测和预报系统Indicator · IND · scoreScore (0–1) for the coverage and operational status of hazard monitoring and forecasting systems across the hazards relevant to the country.
- 早期预警信息覆盖的人口Indicator · IND · /10*5Number of people per 100 000 covered by early warning information through local governments or national dissemination mechanisms.
- 制定了根据早期预警采取行动计划的地方政府Indicator · IND · %Share of local governments with a plan that sets out actions to take when an early warning is received.
- 可获取的灾害风险信息和评估Indicator · IND · scoreScore (0–1) for whether usable, understandable and relevant disaster risk information and assessments are available to people at national and local level.
- 通过预先疏散得到保护的暴露人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the population exposed to or at risk from a hazardous event that was protected through pre-emptive evacuation following an early warning, per event and aggregated per year.
- 已通过灾害风险融资战略Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the government has adopted a disaster risk financing strategy or policy that layers reserves, contingent credit and risk transfer against defined risk tiers (1 yes, 0 no).
- 参与主权区域风险池Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the government holds an in-force parametric policy with a sovereign regional catastrophe risk pool (ARC (Africa), CCRIF SPC (Caribbean and Central America), PCRIC (Pacific), SEADRIF (South-East Asia)) in the policy year (1 yes, 0 no).
- 预先安排的灾害应急信贷，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Undrawn amount of pre-arranged contingent credit lines for disasters (World Bank Cat DDOs and equivalent instruments from regional development banks) available at year end, as a percentage of GDP.
- 主权巨灾风险转移限额，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Aggregate in-force limit of sovereign and sub-sovereign catastrophe risk transfer (catastrophe bonds, parametric insurance including regional pool policies, indemnity reinsurance of public assets) as a percentage of GDP.
- 非寿险保费，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Gross written non-life insurance premiums as a percentage of GDP.
- 自然巨灾保险保障缺口Indicator · IND · %Share of economic losses from natural hazards that is not insured, as a ten-year average of realised losses or, where available, of modelled average annual loss.
- 15 分钟内可获得应急服务的人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the population that an ambulance, fire or rescue unit from a staffed station can reach within 15 minutes by road, modelled from station locations, road networks and gridded population.
- 经 INSARAG 分级的城市搜救队Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the country has at least one urban search and rescue team classified under the INSARAG External Classification (1 yes, 0 no).
- 获得的减少灾害风险国际官方支持，占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Official international support (official development assistance plus other official flows) disbursed for national disaster risk reduction actions in the recipient country, as a percentage of GDP.
- 冲击响应型社会保护准备度Indicator · IND · scoreScore (0–1) for whether the main social-protection programmes have pre-agreed triggers, pre-positioned financing, an interoperable registry covering the hazard-exposed poor and a tested payment channel for rapid horizontal or vertical scale-up.
- 距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the rural population living within two kilometres (about a 20-minute walk) of a road passable in all seasons, estimated from gridded population and road-network condition data.
- 物流绩效Indicator · IND · scoreOverall score of trade logistics performance (customs, infrastructure, shipments, logistics competence, tracking, timeliness) on a 1–5 scale, as an external source series.
- 班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）Indicator · IND · %Liner shipping connectivity of the economy’s ports (ship deployment, container capacity, services, companies, direct connections) as a percentage of the highest-scoring economy in the same year.
- 人均航空客运量Indicator · IND · passengers/a/personPassengers carried on domestic and international flights by carriers registered in the economy, per resident per year.
- 可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口Indicator · IND · %Share of the urban population living within 500 m walking distance of a low-capacity public transport stop or 1 km of a high-capacity one.
- 互联网使用者Indicator · IND · %Share of individuals who used the Internet from any location and device in the last three months.
- 移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分Indicator · IND · %Share of the population within range of a mobile-cellular signal, reported separately for 2G, 3G, 4G/LTE and 5G; the headline value is 4G or better.
- 每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数Indicator · IND · /10*2Fixed subscriptions to the public Internet at advertised download speeds of at least 256 kbit/s, per 100 inhabitants, by speed tier.
- 国际连接路由冗余度Indicator · IND · 1Number of physically diverse international connectivity routes (distinct subsea-cable landing stations and cross-border terrestrial fibre routes) serving the economy, capped at ten.
- DRR governance sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of national DRR strategy alignment and local strategy uptake.
- Early warning capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of monitoring and forecasting, warning coverage, local action plans, risk-information access and pre-emptive evacuation outcomes.
- Disaster risk financing capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of a financing strategy, regional pool participation, contingent credit, risk transfer cover, insurance penetration and, inverted, the protection gap.
- Response capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of emergency-service access, INSARAG-classified rescue capability, international DRR support and shock-responsive social protection.
- Transport connectivity deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the lack of rural all-season road access, weak logistics performance, low liner shipping connectivity, low air connectivity and limited urban public transport, each inverted.
- Digital connectivity deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of the lack of internet use, mobile coverage, fixed broadband and international route redundancy, each inverted.
- 缺乏应对能力指数Domain index · IDX · geometricIndex on a 0–10 scale of the absence of DRR governance, early warning, risk financing and response capacity (each inverted), together with transport and digital connectivity deficits; higher means less able to cope.
- 缺乏应对与适应能力Pillar · PILLAR · 2 indicesCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate lack of coping capacity on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
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Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03方法
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 30% of weight
- Weighting
- 专家
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不确定性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Lack of Coping Capacity (structure only); Sendai Framework targets E, F, G; World Bank DRFIP; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components
6 components, 26 indicators
DRR governance sub-index w 1
Composite of national DRR strategy alignment and local strategy uptake.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy | {score} | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor | 50.0% |
拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies | % | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, mcr2030-resilience-roadmap | 50.0% |
Early warning capacity sub-index w 1
Composite of monitoring and forecasting, warning coverage, local action plans, risk-information access and pre-emptive evacuation outcomes.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
多危害监测和预报系统IND.CRS.warning.monitoring_forecasting | {score} | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, wmo-observing-systems-capability-analysis | 22.2% |
早期预警信息覆盖的人口IND.CRS.warning.early_warning_coverage | /10*5 | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, wmo-early-warnings-for-all-dashboard, itu-cell-broadcast-deployments | 22.2% |
制定了根据早期预警采取行动计划的地方政府IND.CRS.warning.local_warning_action_plans | % | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor | 22.2% |
可获取的灾害风险信息和评估IND.CRS.warning.risk_information_access | {score} | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor | 22.2% |
通过预先疏散得到保护的暴露人口IND.CRS.warning.preemptive_evacuation | % | Class E | undrr-sendai-framework-monitor, national-civil-protection-reports | 11.1% |
Disaster risk financing capacity sub-index w 1
Composite of a financing strategy, regional pool participation, contingent credit, risk transfer cover, insurance penetration and, inverted, the protection gap.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
已通过灾害风险融资战略IND.CRS.financing.drf_strategy | {bool} | Class B | wb-gfdrr-drfip-country-profiles, national-finance-ministry-publications | 9.1% |
参与主权区域风险池IND.CRS.financing.regional_risk_pool_membership | {bool} | Class A | arc-annual-reports, ccrif-spc-annual-reports, pcric-annual-reports, seadrif-annual-reports | 9.1% |
预先安排的灾害应急信贷，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.financing.contingent_credit.gdp | % | Class A | wb-projects-database, regional-development-bank-project-databases | 18.2% |
主权巨灾风险转移限额，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp | % | Class B | wb-treasury-cat-bond-issuances, arc-annual-reports, ccrif-spc-annual-reports, pcric-annual-reports, artemis-deal-directory-licensed | 18.2% |
非寿险保费，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration | % | Class B | oecd-global-insurance-statistics, national-insurance-supervisors, swiss-re-sigma-licensed | 18.2% |
自然巨灾保险保障缺口IND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap | % | Class C | eiopa-nat-cat-protection-gap-dashboard, swiss-re-sigma-licensed, emdat | 27.3% |
Response capacity sub-index w 1
Composite of emergency-service access, INSARAG-classified rescue capability, international DRR support and shock-responsive social protection.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
15 分钟内可获得应急服务的人口IND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access | % | Class D | openstreetmap, worldpop, national-emergency-service-registers | 42.9% |
经 INSARAG 分级的城市搜救队IND.CRS.response.usar_classification | {bool} | Class A | insarag-classified-teams-list | 14.3% |
获得的减少灾害风险国际官方支持，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.response.international_drr_support.gdp | % | Class B | oecd-crs-drr-marker, undrr-sendai-framework-monitor | 14.3% |
冲击响应型社会保护准备度IND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection | {score} | Class E | wb-aspire, wfp-shock-responsive-social-protection-studies, national-social-protection-strategies | 28.6% |
Transport connectivity deficit sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the lack of rural all-season road access, weak logistics performance, low liner shipping connectivity, low air connectivity and limited urban public transport, each inverted.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
距全天候道路 2 km 以内的农村人口IND.INF.transport.rural_road_access | % | Class C | wb-rural-access-index, openstreetmap, worldpop | 33.3% |
物流绩效IND.INF.transport.logistics_performance | {score} | Class E | wb-lpi | 22.2% |
班轮运输连通性（相对前沿水平）IND.INF.transport.liner_shipping_connectivity | % | Class B | unctad-lsci, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
人均航空客运量IND.INF.transport.air_passengers.pc | {passengers}/a/{person} | Class B | icao-air-transport-reporting, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
可便捷使用公共交通的城市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access | % | Class C | un-habitat-urban-indicators-database, gtfs-feeds, openstreetmap | 11.1% |
Digital connectivity deficit sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the lack of internet use, mobile coverage, fixed broadband and international route redundancy, each inverted.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
互联网使用者IND.INF.digital.internet_users | % | Class B | itu-datahub, wb-wdi, national-ict-household-surveys | 33.3% |
移动网络覆盖人口，按技术划分IND.INF.digital.mobile_network_coverage | % | Class B | itu-datahub, gsma-mobile-coverage-maps | 33.3% |
每 100 名居民固定宽带订阅数IND.INF.digital.fixed_broadband | /10*2 | Class B | itu-datahub, wb-wdi, oecd-broadband-portal | 16.7% |
国际连接路由冗余度IND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | 1 | Class D | telegeography-submarine-cable-map, itu-broadband-maps, peeringdb | 16.7% |
05领域
Coping capacity and resilience
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps.
| Sub-domain | 指标 |
|---|---|
| DRR strategy | 2 |
| 预警 | 6 |
| Risk financing and protection gap | 6 |
| Response capacity | 4 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): Sendai E-G; INFORM Lack of Coping Capacity; UNDRR GAR 2025.
06指标
All 18 coping capacity and resilience indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
与《仙台框架》一致的国家减少灾害风险战略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
拥有与国家战略一致的减少灾害风险战略的地方政府IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
多危害早期预警系统得分IND.CRS.warning.mhews_score | CRS | 预警 | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI G-1 |
多危害监测和预报系统IND.CRS.warning.monitoring_forecasting | CRS | 预警 | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI G-2 |
早期预警信息覆盖的人口IND.CRS.warning.early_warning_coverage | CRS | 预警 | coping capacity | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI G-3 |
制定了根据早期预警采取行动计划的地方政府IND.CRS.warning.local_warning_action_plans | CRS | 预警 | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI G-4 |
可获取的灾害风险信息和评估IND.CRS.warning.risk_information_access | CRS | 预警 | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI G-5 |
通过预先疏散得到保护的暴露人口IND.CRS.warning.preemptive_evacuation | CRS | 预警 | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI G-6 |
已通过灾害风险融资战略IND.CRS.financing.drf_strategy | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
参与主权区域风险池IND.CRS.financing.regional_risk_pool_membership | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
预先安排的灾害应急信贷，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.financing.contingent_credit.gdp | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
主权巨灾风险转移限额，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
自然巨灾保险保障缺口IND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
非寿险保费，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration | CRS | Risk financing and protection gap | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | |
15 分钟内可获得应急服务的人口IND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
经 INSARAG 分级的城市搜救队IND.CRS.response.usar_classification | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
获得的减少灾害风险国际官方支持，占 GDP 比重IND.CRS.response.international_drr_support.gdp | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SENDAI F-1 |
冲击响应型社会保护准备度IND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
07引用
Lack of coping capacity index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · CRS · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Lack of coping capacity index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏，最近一周
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
Lack of coping capacity index, world, by edition
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。
非洲54
美洲35
亚洲48
欧洲44
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值
Country values
FIG 5 · Lack of coping capacity index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- 瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/crs/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.CRS.response.lack_of_coping_capacity:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-08Global DisasterMulti-hazard exposure, disaster losses and mortality, return-period losses, protection gaps and coping capacity.→ TH-02Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)Hazard, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, preparedness, redundancy and recovery readings for planning and learning, aligned to the Sendai Framework targets.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
SDG | 11 |
SENDAI | 8 |
WB_WDI | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 2 |
11贯穿 Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Lack of coping capacity index (GRX-IDX-CRS), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/lack-of-coping-capacity/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000115.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.