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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

粮食不安全风险指数

Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

Mazziotta–Pareto

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

不确定性

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

结构

5 components

20 leaf indicators

覆盖范围

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.

computation
How Food insecurity risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
  1. 受分析人口中处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的占比
    Indicator · IND · %
    People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
  2. 处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的人口
    Indicator · IND · persons
    Number of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
  3. 是否存在处于 IPC 第 5 阶段的人口
    Indicator · IND · yes or no
    Whether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
  4. 食物不足发生率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
  5. 中度或重度粮食不安全（FIES）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
  6. 重度粮食不安全（FIES）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
  7. 无力负担健康膳食的人口
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
  8. 食品价格异常指标（食品 CPI）
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
  9. 食品价格异常偏高的月数
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
  10. 食品价格通胀率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
  11. 健康膳食成本
    Indicator · IND · USD
    Daily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
  12. 平均膳食能量供应充足率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
  13. 人均食物供应波动性
    Indicator · IND · kcal per day per person
    Year-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
  14. 谷物进口依赖率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
  15. 食品进口支出，占商品出口比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
  16. 农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
  17. 农业就业，占总就业比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
  18. 谷物单产
    Indicator · IND · kg/ha
    Harvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
  19. 谷物单产波动性（15 年）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
  20. 农业取水量，占总取水量比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
  21. Acute food insecurity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%
    Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
  22. Chronic food insecurity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%
    Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
  23. Food price stress sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%
    Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
  24. Food supply fragility sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%
    Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
  25. Agricultural dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%
    Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
  26. 粮食不安全风险指数
    Domain index · IDX · Mazziotta–Pareto
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
  27. 人类与系统脆弱性
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03方法

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
专家
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
Scale
0 to 10
不确定性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2

Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.

指标单位证据来源占比
受分析人口中处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的占比IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share%Class Bipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population50.0%
处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的人口IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population{persons}Class Bipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc25.0%
是否存在处于 IPC 第 5 阶段的人口IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence{bool}Class Bipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee25.0%

Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5

Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.

指标单位证据来源占比
食物不足发生率IND.FOO.availability.undernourishment%Class Cfao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi25.0%
中度或重度粮食不安全（FIES）IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe%Class Cfao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi25.0%
重度粮食不安全（FIES）IND.FOO.access.fies_severe%Class Cfao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi25.0%
无力负担健康膳食的人口IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable%Class Cwb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi25.0%

Food price stress sub-index w 1

Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.

指标单位证据来源占比
食品价格异常指标（食品 CPI）IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly1Class Bfao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi25.0%
食品价格异常偏高的月数IND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months%Class Dderived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly25.0%
食品价格通胀率IND.MAC.prices.food_inflation%Class Bfao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi25.0%
健康膳食成本IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost[USD]Class Cwb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi25.0%

Food supply fragility sub-index w 1

Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.

指标单位证据来源占比
平均膳食能量供应充足率IND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy%Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%
人均食物供应波动性IND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variabilitykcal/d/{person}Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency%Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%
食品进口支出，占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports%Class Bfao-faostat-fs25.0%

Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.

指标单位证据来源占比
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, un-national-accounts22.2%
农业就业，占总就业比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share%Class Cilo-ilostat, wb-wdi22.2%
谷物单产IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yieldkg/harClass Bfao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi22.2%
谷物单产波动性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability%Class Dderived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl22.2%
农业取水量，占总取水量比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal%Class Bfao-aquastat, wb-wdi11.1%
05领域

粮食系统

Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.

Sub-domain指标
Availability5
Access and affordability4
Acute food insecurity4
Food prices3
Agricultural production and dependence7

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.

06指标

All 23 food systems indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FOO · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标领域Sub-domain组件单位级别Crosswalks
食物不足发生率IND.FOO.availability.undernourishmentFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS
食物不足人数IND.FOO.availability.people_undernourishedFOOAvailabilityvulnerability{persons}COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210011
平均膳食能量供应充足率IND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacyFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21010
人均食物供应波动性IND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variabilityFOOAvailabilityvulnerabilitykcal/d/{person}COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21031
谷物进口依赖率IND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependencyFOOAvailabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21035
中度或重度粮食不安全（FIES）IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severeFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS
重度粮食不安全（FIES）IND.FOO.access.fies_severeFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS
健康膳食成本IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_costFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI CoHD_PPP
无力负担健康膳食的人口IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordableFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI CoHD_headcount
处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的人口IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_populationFOOAcute food insecurityimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2IPC Phase 3+
受分析人口中处于 IPC 第 3 阶段及以上的占比IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_shareFOOAcute food insecurityimpact%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2IPC Phase 3+
IPC 第 3 阶段及以上，占总人口比重IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_totalFOOAcute food insecurityimpact%COUNTRY
是否存在处于 IPC 第 5 阶段的人口IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presenceFOOAcute food insecurityimpact{bool}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2IPC Phase 5
食品价格异常指标（食品 CPI）IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomalyFOOFood priceshazard1COUNTRYSDG 2.c.1
食品价格异常偏高的月数IND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_monthsFOOFood priceshazard%COUNTRY
食品进口支出，占商品出口比重IND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exportsFOOFood pricesvulnerability%COUNTRYFAO_FAOSTAT 21033
农林渔业增加值，占 GDP 比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdpFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS
农业就业，占总就业比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_shareFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
谷物单产IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yieldFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerabilitykg/harCOUNTRYWB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG
谷物单产波动性（15 年）IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variabilityFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRY
农业取水量，占总取水量比重IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawalFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
耕地，占陆地面积比重IND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.shareFOOAgricultural production and dependenceexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS
耕地植被健康指数IND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_indexFOOAgricultural production and dependencehazard{score}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID
07引用

Food insecurity risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
上一版
–
Range since 2016
–
耦合综合
–
耦合得分 S
–
脉搏，最近一周
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
方法
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
抽样次数
1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition

尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
非洲54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
美洲35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
亚洲48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
欧洲44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
大洋洲14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值

Country values

FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
安道尔安提瓜和巴布达巴林巴巴多斯科摩罗佛得角多米尼克密克罗尼西亚（联邦）格林纳达基里巴斯圣基茨和尼维斯圣卢西亚列支敦士登摩纳哥马尔代夫马绍尔群岛马耳他毛里求斯瑙鲁帕劳新加坡圣马力诺圣多美和普林西比塞舌尔汤加图瓦卢教廷圣文森特和格林纳丁斯萨摩亚
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
观测键
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures. SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk. TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI9
FAO_FAOSTAT8
SDG4
IPC3
11贯穿 Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.