The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Gıda güvensizliği riski endeksi
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Belirsizlik
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Yapı
5 components
20 leaf indicators
Kapsam
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01İnşaat
From indicators to the composite
Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.
computation
How Food insecurity risk is computedGraph28 nodes
Grafik
01Göstergeler
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Sütun
05Bileşik
100%
Dizin
- Analiz edilen nüfus içinde IPC Aşama 3 veya üzerindekilerin payıIndicator · IND · %People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
- IPC Aşama 3 veya üzerindeki nüfusIndicator · IND · personsNumber of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
- IPC Aşama 5'te nüfus bulunmasıIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
- Yetersiz beslenme yaygınlığıIndicator · IND · %Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
- Orta veya şiddetli gıda güvencesizliği (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
- Şiddetli gıda güvencesizliği (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
- Sağlıklı beslenmeyi karşılayamayan nüfusIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
- Gıda fiyatı anomalileri göstergesi (gıda TÜFE)Indicator · IND · 1Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
- Gıda fiyatlarının anormal derecede yüksek olduğu aylarIndicator · IND · %Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
- Gıda fiyat enflasyonuIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
- Sağlıklı beslenmenin maliyetiIndicator · IND · USDDaily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
- Ortalama diyet enerjisi arzı yeterliliğiIndicator · IND · %Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
- Kişi başına gıda arzı değişkenliğiIndicator · IND · kcal per day per personYear-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
- Tahıl ithalatı bağımlılık oranıIndicator · IND · %Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
- Gıda ithalatı faturası, mal ihracatının payıIndicator · IND · %Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
- Tarım, ormancılık ve balıkçılık katma değeri, GSYH payıIndicator · IND · %Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
- Tarımda istihdam, toplam istihdamın payıIndicator · IND · %People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
- Tahıl verimiIndicator · IND · kg/haHarvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
- Tahıl verimi değişkenliği (15 yıllık)Indicator · IND · %Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
- Tarımsal su çekimi, toplamın payıIndicator · IND · %Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
- Acute food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
- Chronic food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Food price stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
- Food supply fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
- Agricultural dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
- Gıda güvensizliği riski endeksiDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
- İnsan ve sistem kırılganlığıPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
ÇalıştırılmadıSürüyorTamamlandı
02Simülatör
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
tarayıcınızda çalışır
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Yöntem
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- uzman
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Belirsizlik
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
Çok düşük0.0 ile < 2.0 arası
Düşük2.0 ile < 3.5 arası
Orta3.5 ile < 5.0 arası
Yüksek5.0 ile < 6.5 arası
Çok yüksek6.5 ile 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Analiz edilen nüfus içinde IPC Aşama 3 veya üzerindekilerin payıIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | % | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | 50.0% |
IPC Aşama 3 veya üzerindeki nüfusIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | {persons} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc | 25.0% |
IPC Aşama 5'te nüfus bulunmasıIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | {bool} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee | 25.0% |
Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Yetersiz beslenme yaygınlığıIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Orta veya şiddetli gıda güvencesizliği (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Şiddetli gıda güvencesizliği (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Sağlıklı beslenmeyi karşılayamayan nüfusIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | % | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food price stress sub-index w 1
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gıda fiyatı anomalileri göstergesi (gıda TÜFE)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 1 | Class B | fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi | 25.0% |
Gıda fiyatlarının anormal derecede yüksek olduğu aylarIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 25.0% |
Gıda fiyat enflasyonuIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | % | Class B | fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi | 25.0% |
Sağlıklı beslenmenin maliyetiIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | [USD] | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food supply fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ortalama diyet enerjisi arzı yeterliliğiIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Kişi başına gıda arzı değişkenliğiIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | kcal/d/{person} | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Tahıl ithalatı bağımlılık oranıIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Gıda ithalatı faturası, mal ihracatının payıIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
| Gösterge | Birim | Kanıt | Kaynaklar | Pay |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Tarım, ormancılık ve balıkçılık katma değeri, GSYH payıIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-national-accounts | 22.2% |
Tarımda istihdam, toplam istihdamın payıIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Tahıl verimiIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | kg/har | Class B | fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Tahıl verimi değişkenliği (15 yıllık)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl | 22.2% |
Tarımsal su çekimi, toplamın payıIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | % | Class B | fao-aquastat, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
05Alan
Gıda sistemleri
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
| Sub-domain | Göstergeler |
|---|---|
| Availability | 5 |
| Access and affordability | 4 |
| Acute food insecurity | 4 |
| Food prices | 3 |
| Agricultural production and dependence | 7 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.
06Göstergeler
All 23 food systems indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Gösterge | Alan | Sub-domain | Bileşen | Birim | Düzeyler | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yetersiz beslenme yaygınlığıIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
Yetersiz beslenen kişi sayısıIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
Ortalama diyet enerjisi arzı yeterliliğiIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
Kişi başına gıda arzı değişkenliğiIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
Tahıl ithalatı bağımlılık oranıIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Orta veya şiddetli gıda güvencesizliği (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
Şiddetli gıda güvencesizliği (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
Sağlıklı beslenmenin maliyetiIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
Sağlıklı beslenmeyi karşılayamayan nüfusIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
IPC Aşama 3 veya üzerindeki nüfusIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
Analiz edilen nüfus içinde IPC Aşama 3 veya üzerindekilerin payıIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
IPC Aşama 3 veya üzeri, toplam nüfusun payıIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
IPC Aşama 5'te nüfus bulunmasıIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
Gıda fiyatı anomalileri göstergesi (gıda TÜFE)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
Gıda fiyatlarının anormal derecede yüksek olduğu aylarIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
Gıda ithalatı faturası, mal ihracatının payıIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Tarım, ormancılık ve balıkçılık katma değeri, GSYH payıIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Tarımda istihdam, toplam istihdamın payıIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
Tahıl verimiIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
Tahıl verimi değişkenliği (15 yıllık)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Tarımsal su çekimi, toplamın payıIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
Ekili alan, kara alanının payıIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | maruziyet | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
Ekili alanlarda Bitki Sağlığı EndeksiIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID |
07Gösterge değeri
Food insecurity risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
–
Değerler baskıyla yayımlanır; aralık, sınıf ve değişim burada görünür.
- Önceki baskı
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Bağlantılı bileşik
- –
- Bağlantı puanı S
- –
- Pulse, son hafta
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Yöntem
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Çekilişler
- 1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition
Henüz yayımlanmış değer yok. İlk baskı, geçmişi burada aralık bandı ve sınıf sınırlarıyla çizer.
Afrika54
Amerika35
Asya48
Avrupa44
Henüz değişiklik yok. Önceki sürümden bu yana olan değişiklikler, ikinci sürümden itibaren bunlara yol açan göstergelerle birlikte burada listelenir.
08Değerler
Country values
FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
Harita yükleniyor
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Döşemeler
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Gözlem anahtarı
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Seriler
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 9 |
FAO_FAOSTAT | 8 |
SDG | 4 |
IPC | 3 |
11Nexus genelinde
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Nexus genelinde
Food Nexus · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance.
12Atıf
Atıf ve yeniden kullanım
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Durum
The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.
NXS-GRX ne değildir
NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.
Kurumlar ve kaynaklar
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.