The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
شاخص ریسک ناامنی غذایی
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
عدم قطعیت
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
ساختار
5 components
20 leaf indicators
پوشش
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.
computation
How Food insecurity risk is computedGraph28 nodes
گراف
01شاخص‌ها
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04رکن
05ترکیبی
100%
نمایه
- سهم جمعیت تحلیل‌شده در IPC فاز 3 یا بالاترIndicator · IND · %People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
- جمعیت در IPC فاز 3 یا بالاترIndicator · IND · personsNumber of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
- وجود جمعیت در IPC فاز 5Indicator · IND · yes or noWhether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
- شیوع سوءتغذیهIndicator · IND · %Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
- ناامنی غذایی متوسط یا شدید (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
- ناامنی غذایی شدید (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
- جمعیت ناتوان از تأمین رژیم غذایی سالمIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
- نشانگر ناهنجاری‌های قیمت غذا (CPI غذا)Indicator · IND · 1Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
- ماه‌های دارای قیمت‌های غیرعادی بالای غذاIndicator · IND · %Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
- تورم قیمت مواد غذاییIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
- هزینهٔ رژیم غذایی سالمIndicator · IND · USDDaily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
- میانگین کفایت تأمین انرژی غذاییIndicator · IND · %Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
- تغییرپذیری عرضهٔ غذای سرانهIndicator · IND · kcal per day per personYear-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
- نسبت وابستگی به واردات غلاتIndicator · IND · %Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
- هزینهٔ واردات غذا، سهم از صادرات کالاIndicator · IND · %Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
- ارزش افزودهٔ کشاورزی، جنگلداری و ماهیگیری، سهم از GDPIndicator · IND · %Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
- اشتغال در کشاورزی، سهم از کل اشتغالIndicator · IND · %People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
- عملکرد غلاتIndicator · IND · kg/haHarvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
- تغییرپذیری عملکرد غلات (15 ساله)Indicator · IND · %Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
- برداشت آب کشاورزی، سهم از کلIndicator · IND · %Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
- Acute food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
- Chronic food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Food price stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
- Food supply fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
- Agricultural dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
- شاخص ریسک ناامنی غذاییDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
- آسیب‌پذیری انسانی و سامانه‌ایPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
اجرا نشدهدر حال انجامانجام شد
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
در مرورگر شما اجرا می‌شود
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03روش
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- کارشناس
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- عدم قطعیت
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
بسیار کم0.0 تا < 2.0
کم2.0 تا < 3.5
متوسط3.5 تا < 5.0
زیاد5.0 تا < 6.5
بسیار زیاد6.5 تا 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
| نشانگر | واحد | شواهد | منابع | سهم |
|---|---|---|---|---|
سهم جمعیت تحلیل‌شده در IPC فاز 3 یا بالاترIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | % | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | 50.0% |
جمعیت در IPC فاز 3 یا بالاترIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | {persons} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc | 25.0% |
وجود جمعیت در IPC فاز 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | {bool} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee | 25.0% |
Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
| نشانگر | واحد | شواهد | منابع | سهم |
|---|---|---|---|---|
شیوع سوءتغذیهIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
ناامنی غذایی متوسط یا شدید (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
ناامنی غذایی شدید (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
جمعیت ناتوان از تأمین رژیم غذایی سالمIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | % | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food price stress sub-index w 1
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
| نشانگر | واحد | شواهد | منابع | سهم |
|---|---|---|---|---|
نشانگر ناهنجاری‌های قیمت غذا (CPI غذا)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 1 | Class B | fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi | 25.0% |
ماه‌های دارای قیمت‌های غیرعادی بالای غذاIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 25.0% |
تورم قیمت مواد غذاییIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | % | Class B | fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi | 25.0% |
هزینهٔ رژیم غذایی سالمIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | [USD] | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food supply fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
| نشانگر | واحد | شواهد | منابع | سهم |
|---|---|---|---|---|
میانگین کفایت تأمین انرژی غذاییIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
تغییرپذیری عرضهٔ غذای سرانهIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | kcal/d/{person} | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
نسبت وابستگی به واردات غلاتIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
هزینهٔ واردات غذا، سهم از صادرات کالاIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
| نشانگر | واحد | شواهد | منابع | سهم |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ارزش افزودهٔ کشاورزی، جنگلداری و ماهیگیری، سهم از GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-national-accounts | 22.2% |
اشتغال در کشاورزی، سهم از کل اشتغالIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
عملکرد غلاتIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | kg/har | Class B | fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
تغییرپذیری عملکرد غلات (15 ساله)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl | 22.2% |
برداشت آب کشاورزی، سهم از کلIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | % | Class B | fao-aquastat, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
05حوزه
Food systems
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
| Sub-domain | شاخص‌ها |
|---|---|
| Availability | 5 |
| Access and affordability | 4 |
| Acute food insecurity | 4 |
| Food prices | 3 |
| Agricultural production and dependence | 7 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.
06شاخص‌ها
All 23 food systems indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| نشانگر | حوزه | Sub-domain | جزء | واحد | سطوح | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
شیوع سوءتغذیهIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
تعداد افراد دچار سوءتغذیهIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
میانگین کفایت تأمین انرژی غذاییIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
تغییرپذیری عرضهٔ غذای سرانهIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
نسبت وابستگی به واردات غلاتIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
ناامنی غذایی متوسط یا شدید (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
ناامنی غذایی شدید (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
هزینهٔ رژیم غذایی سالمIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
جمعیت ناتوان از تأمین رژیم غذایی سالمIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
جمعیت در IPC فاز 3 یا بالاترIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
سهم جمعیت تحلیل‌شده در IPC فاز 3 یا بالاترIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
IPC فاز 3 یا بالاتر، سهم از کل جمعیتIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
وجود جمعیت در IPC فاز 5IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
نشانگر ناهنجاری‌های قیمت غذا (CPI غذا)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
ماه‌های دارای قیمت‌های غیرعادی بالای غذاIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
هزینهٔ واردات غذا، سهم از صادرات کالاIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
ارزش افزودهٔ کشاورزی، جنگلداری و ماهیگیری، سهم از GDPIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
اشتغال در کشاورزی، سهم از کل اشتغالIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
عملکرد غلاتIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
تغییرپذیری عملکرد غلات (15 ساله)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
برداشت آب کشاورزی، سهم از کلIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
زمین‌های زراعی، سهم از مساحت خشکیIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
شاخص سلامت پوشش گیاهی در زمین‌های زراعیIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID |
07Quote
Food insecurity risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Coupled composite
- –
- Coupling score S
- –
- Pulse, latest week
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- روش
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
آفریقا54
قارهٔ آمریکا35
آسیا48
اروپا44
هنوز هیچ جابه‌جایی‌ای نیست. از ویراست دوم به بعد، تغییرات نسبت به ویراست پیشین همراه با نشانگرهایی که آن‌ها را رقم زده‌اند در اینجا فهرست می‌شوند.
08مقادیر
Country values
FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
در حال بارگذاری نقشه
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- راهنمای مشاهدات
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09مجموعه‌ها
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 9 |
FAO_FAOSTAT | 8 |
SDG | 4 |
IPC | 3 |
11Across the Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Across the Nexus
Food Nexus · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance.
12استناد
استناد و استفادهٔ دوباره
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
وضعیت
روش‌شناسی، ساختار و تعاریف The Global Risks Index پیش‌نویس کاری مقدماتی (2026) است که برای بررسی و اظهارنظر منتشر شده و برای اجرا نیست. هیچ مقداری نمایش داده نمی‌شود تا ویراستی از یک برش شواهد تحت حکمرانی منتشر شود؛ آنگاه مقادیر همراه با بازه‌ها، رده‌ها، منابع و مسیر اصلاح خود ارائه می‌شوند. شبیه‌سازها روش‌های منتشرشده را بر روی اعدادی که شما برمی‌گزینید اجرا می‌کنند و هرگز مقداری از NXS-GRX نشان نمی‌دهند.
آنچه NXS-GRX نیست
NXS-GRX اطلاعات پژوهشی و تحلیلی ریسک است. رتبه‌بندی اعتباری یا ESG نیست و از هیچ مقیاس رتبه‌بندی استفاده نمی‌کند، شاخص مرجع ابزارهای مالی نیست، آمار رسمی نیست، هشدار اضطراری یا طبقه‌بندی رسمی نیست و توصیه نیست. نباید برای ارزیابی اشخاص حقیقی به کار رود. طبقه‌های ریسک بازه‌هایی روی یک مقیاس منتشرشده‌اند، هرگز رتبه‌بندی کشورها یا افراد نیستند.
نهادها و منابع
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
هر مقدار انتساب منابع خود را در بر دارد و آن منابع پروانه‌های خود را حفظ می‌کنند. نام‌های بیرونی تنها برای میان‌کنش‌پذیری ذکر می‌شوند. متون نگاشتهٔ Nexus برای انتشار با پروانهٔ CC BY 4.0 در نظر گرفته شده‌اند.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.