The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-FOO · VUL Human and systems vulnerability
Índice de riesgo de inseguridad alimentaria
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
Page GRX-IDX-FOOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Incertidumbre
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Estructura
5 components
20 leaf indicators
Cobertura
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Joins today’s acute severity with the structural and price conditions that drive tomorrow’s; acute severity carries the largest weight and every sub-index stays visible.
computation
How Food insecurity risk is computedGraph28 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Compuesto
100%
Índice
- Proporción de la población analizada en la Fase 3 de la CIF o superiorIndicator · IND · %People in IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5 as a percentage of the population covered by the analysis.
- Población en la Fase 3 de la CIF o superiorIndicator · IND · personsNumber of people classified in Crisis, Emergency or Catastrophe/Famine (IPC or Cadre Harmonise Phase 3 to 5) in the most recent current-period analysis.
- Presencia de población en la Fase 5 de la CIFIndicator · IND · yes or noWhether the most recent current or projected analysis classifies any population or area in Phase 5 (Catastrophe or Famine).
- Prevalencia de la subalimentaciónIndicator · IND · %Estimated share of the population whose habitual dietary energy intake falls below the minimum needed for a healthy, active life, three-year average.
- Inseguridad alimentaria moderada o grave (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported experiences of moderate or severe food insecurity on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale, three-year average.
- Inseguridad alimentaria grave (FIES)Indicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households where at least one adult reported severe food insecurity, such as running out of food or going a day without eating, three-year average.
- Población que no puede costear una dieta saludableIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose income, after setting aside a typical share for non-food needs, falls below the cost of a healthy diet.
- Indicador de anomalías en los precios de los alimentos (IPC de alimentos)Indicator · IND · 1Weighted compound growth of the food consumer price index over quarterly and annual horizons, expressed in standard deviations from its historical mean; values of 1 or more are abnormally high.
- Meses con precios de los alimentos anormalmente altosIndicator · IND · %Share of the latest twelve months in which the food price anomaly indicator was 1 or above.
- Inflación de los precios de los alimentosIndicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the food component of the consumer price index.
- Costo de una dieta saludableIndicator · IND · USDDaily cost per person of the least expensive locally available foods that meet food-based dietary guidelines, in PPP dollars.
- Suficiencia media del suministro de energía alimentariaIndicator · IND · %Dietary energy supply per person as a percentage of the average dietary energy requirement, three-year average.
- Variabilidad del suministro de alimentos per cápitaIndicator · IND · kcal per day per personYear-to-year variability of dietary energy supply per person, in kilocalories per person per day.
- Tasa de dependencia de las importaciones de cerealesIndicator · IND · %Net cereal imports as a percentage of domestic cereal supply (production plus imports minus exports), three-year average; negative values mark net exporters.
- Factura de importación de alimentos, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIndicator · IND · %Value of food imports as a percentage of total merchandise export earnings, three-year average.
- Valor añadido de la agricultura, la silvicultura y la pesca, porcentaje del PIBIndicator · IND · %Gross value added of agriculture, forestry and fishing (ISIC divisions 01–03) as a percentage of GDP.
- Empleo en la agricultura, porcentaje del empleo totalIndicator · IND · %People employed in agriculture, forestry and fishing as a percentage of total employment (ILO modelled estimate).
- Rendimiento de los cerealesIndicator · IND · kg/haHarvested production of cereals for dry grain per hectare of harvested land.
- Variabilidad del rendimiento de los cereales (15 años)Indicator · IND · %Coefficient of variation of linearly detrended national cereal yield over the latest fifteen years with data.
- Extracción de agua para la agricultura, porcentaje del totalIndicator · IND · %Freshwater withdrawn for irrigation, livestock and aquaculture as a percentage of total freshwater withdrawal.
- Acute food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 33.3%Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
- Chronic food insecurity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 25.0%Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
- Food price stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
- Food supply fragility sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 16.7%Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
- Agricultural dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 8.3%Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
- Índice de riesgo de inseguridad alimentariaDomain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of acute and chronic food insecurity, food price stress, supply fragility and agricultural dependence.
- Vulnerabilidad humana y de los sistemasPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate food insecurity risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
se ejecuta en su navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Método
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- experto
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertidumbre
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- IPC Technical Manual 3.1 (2021) contributing factors; FAO SOFI; FSIN Global Report on Food Crises (structure only); JRC COIN 10-step guide
Muy bajo0,0 a < 2,0
Bajo2,0 a < 3,5
Medio3,5 a < 5,0
Alto5,0 a < 6,5
Muy alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components
5 components, 20 indicators
Acute food insecurity sub-index w 2
Composite of the share of analysed population in IPC Phase 3 or above, the absolute Phase 3+ caseload and the presence of Phase 5.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Proporción de la población analizada en la Fase 3 de la CIF o superiorIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | % | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, derived:nis:IND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | 50.0% |
Población en la Fase 3 de la CIF o superiorIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | {persons} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, fsin-grfc | 25.0% |
Presencia de población en la Fase 5 de la CIFIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | {bool} | Class B | ipc-api, cadre-harmonise, ipc-famine-review-committee | 25.0% |
Chronic food insecurity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of undernourishment, moderate-or-severe and severe food insecurity and the share unable to afford a healthy diet.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Prevalencia de la subalimentaciónIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-sofi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Inseguridad alimentaria moderada o grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Inseguridad alimentaria grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | % | Class C | fao-faostat-fs, fao-fies, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Población que no puede costear una dieta saludableIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | % | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food price stress sub-index w 1
Composite of the food price anomaly indicator, persistence of abnormal prices, food CPI inflation and the cost of a healthy diet.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Indicador de anomalías en los precios de los alimentos (IPC de alimentos)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 1 | Class B | fao-giews-fpma, fao-faostat-cpi | 25.0% |
Meses con precios de los alimentos anormalmente altosIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | 25.0% |
Inflación de los precios de los alimentosIND.MAC.prices.food_inflation | % | Class B | fao-faostat-cpi, national-cpi | 25.0% |
Costo de una dieta saludableIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | [USD] | Class C | wb-food-prices-for-nutrition, fao-sofi | 25.0% |
Food supply fragility sub-index w 1
Composite of dietary energy supply adequacy (higher is safer), supply variability, cereal import dependency and the food import bill relative to exports.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Suficiencia media del suministro de energía alimentariaIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Variabilidad del suministro de alimentos per cápitaIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | kcal/d/{person} | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Tasa de dependencia de las importaciones de cerealesIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Factura de importación de alimentos, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | % | Class B | fao-faostat-fs | 25.0% |
Agricultural dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of agriculture’s share of GDP and employment, cereal yield (higher is safer), yield variability and agriculture’s share of water withdrawal.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Valor añadido de la agricultura, la silvicultura y la pesca, porcentaje del PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, un-national-accounts | 22.2% |
Empleo en la agricultura, porcentaje del empleo totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Rendimiento de los cerealesIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | kg/har | Class B | fao-faostat-qcl, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Variabilidad del rendimiento de los cereales (15 años)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | % | Class D | derived:nis:IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield, fao-faostat-qcl | 22.2% |
Extracción de agua para la agricultura, porcentaje del totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | % | Class B | fao-aquastat, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
05Dominio
Sistemas alimentarios
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Availability | 5 |
| Access and affordability | 4 |
| Acute food insecurity | 4 |
| Food prices | 3 |
| Agricultural production and dependence | 7 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): FAO SOFI (PoU, FIES); IPC Technical Manual 3.1; SDG 2.
06Indicadores
All 23 food systems indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prevalencia de la subalimentaciónIND.FOO.availability.undernourishment | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210041 SDG 2.1.1 WB_WDI SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS |
Número de personas subalimentadasIND.FOO.availability.people_undernourished | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | {persons} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210011 |
Suficiencia media del suministro de energía alimentariaIND.FOO.availability.dietary_energy_adequacy | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21010 |
Variabilidad del suministro de alimentos per cápitaIND.FOO.availability.food_supply_variability | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | kcal/d/{person} | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21031 |
Tasa de dependencia de las importaciones de cerealesIND.FOO.availability.cereal_import_dependency | FOO | Availability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21035 |
Inseguridad alimentaria moderada o grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_moderate_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210091 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.MSFI.ZS |
Inseguridad alimentaria grave (FIES)IND.FOO.access.fies_severe | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 210401 SDG 2.1.2 WB_WDI SN.ITK.SVFI.ZS |
Costo de una dieta saludableIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | [USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_PPP |
Población que no puede costear una dieta saludableIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable | FOO | Access and affordability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI CoHD_headcount |
Población en la Fase 3 de la CIF o superiorIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
Proporción de la población analizada en la Fase 3 de la CIF o superiorIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_share | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 3+ |
Fase 3 de la CIF o superior, porcentaje de la población totalIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase3plus_population_share_total | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | % | COUNTRY | |
Presencia de población en la Fase 5 de la CIFIND.FOO.acute.ipc_phase5_presence | FOO | Acute food insecurity | impact | {bool} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | IPC Phase 5 |
Indicador de anomalías en los precios de los alimentos (IPC de alimentos)IND.FOO.prices.food_price_anomaly | FOO | Food prices | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | SDG 2.c.1 |
Meses con precios de los alimentos anormalmente altosIND.FOO.prices.abnormal_price_months | FOO | Food prices | hazard | % | COUNTRY | |
Factura de importación de alimentos, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.FOO.prices.food_import_bill_to_exports | FOO | Food prices | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | FAO_FAOSTAT 21033 |
Valor añadido de la agricultura, la silvicultura y la pesca, porcentaje del PIBIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_value_added.gdp | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS |
Empleo en la agricultura, porcentaje del empleo totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS |
Rendimiento de los cerealesIND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | kg/har | COUNTRY | WB_WDI AG.YLD.CREL.KG |
Variabilidad del rendimiento de los cereales (15 años)IND.FOO.agriculture.cereal_yield_variability | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Extracción de agua para la agricultura, porcentaje del totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
Tierras de cultivo, porcentaje de la superficie terrestreIND.FOO.agriculture.cropland.share | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | WB_WDI AG.LND.ARBL.ZS |
Índice de Salud de la Vegetación en tierras de cultivoIND.FOO.agriculture.vegetation_health_index | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID |
07Cita
Food insecurity risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · FOO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Food insecurity risk index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
- Edición anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Compuesto acoplado
- –
- Puntuación de acoplamiento S
- –
- Pulso, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Extracciones
- 1,000
Food insecurity risk index, world, by edition
Aún no hay valores publicados. La primera edición trazará aquí la serie histórica con su banda de intervalo y los límites de clase.
África54
Américas35
Asia48
Europa44
Aún no hay movimientos. A partir de la segunda edición, aquí se enumeran los cambios respecto de la edición anterior, con los indicadores que los provocaron.
08Valores
Country values
FIG 5 · Food insecurity risk index: countries (values when released)
Cargando el mapa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Teselas
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/foo/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Clave de observación
nis:IDX.FOO.acute.food_insecurity_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Serie
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-03Global Food and agrifoodAcute and chronic food insecurity, production shocks, import dependency, prices, fertiliser and logistics chokepoints, nutrition and pollination dependency.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-07Food, water and energyThe food–water–energy nexus: shared stressors, trade-offs and joint failures.→ SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.→ TH-01Nexus InterdependencyThe water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems read together: drought to energy stress, energy disruption to health stress, biodiversity loss to food-system stress, flood to water contamination, heat to health and grid stress, cyber-physical disruption across all five.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 9 |
FAO_FAOSTAT | 8 |
SDG | 4 |
IPC | 3 |
11En todo el Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
En todo el Nexus
Food Nexus · GCRI Biotechnology and Biosecurity · GRF Climate and Nature Governance.
12Citar
Citar y reutilizar
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Food insecurity risk index (GRX-IDX-FOO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/food-insecurity-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000123.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.