金融稳定风险指数
Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
Mazziotta–Pareto
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
7 components
28 leaf indicators
71% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
A strong capital ratio does not offset a large FX mismatch or credit boom; the penalised aggregate keeps one weak pillar visible. Sub-indices are always shown beside the index.
- 监管资本与风险加权资产之比Indicator · IND · %Total regulatory capital of the deposit-taking sector as a percentage of its risk-weighted assets, on the national implementation of the Basel framework.
- 资本与总资产之比(杠杆)Indicator · IND · %Tier 1 capital of deposit takers as a percentage of total (unweighted) assets.
- 扣除拨备后的不良贷款与资本之比Indicator · IND · %Non-performing loans of deposit takers minus specific loan-loss provisions, as a percentage of capital.
- 资产回报率Indicator · IND · %Net income before extraordinary items and taxes of deposit takers as a percentage of average total assets.
- 不良贷款与贷款总额之比Indicator · IND · %Loans of deposit takers more than 90 days past due or otherwise impaired, as a percentage of total gross loans.
- 拨备与不良贷款之比Indicator · IND · %Specific loan-loss provisions of deposit takers as a percentage of non-performing loans.
- 按经济活动划分的贷款集中度Indicator · IND · %Share of deposit takers’ loans to resident non-financial corporations held in the two largest economic activities (ISIC sections).
- 银行对广义政府债权,占银行资产比重Indicator · IND · %Deposit takers’ holdings of general government debt securities and loans to general government as a percentage of their total assets.
- 流动资产与总资产之比Indicator · IND · %Core liquid assets of deposit takers (cash, central-bank reserves, short-term marketable securities) as a percentage of total assets.
- 流动资产与短期负债之比Indicator · IND · %Core liquid assets of deposit takers as a percentage of liabilities with residual maturity of one year or less.
- 客户存款与非同业贷款总额之比Indicator · IND · %Customer (non-interbank) deposits of deposit takers as a percentage of their non-interbank loans.
- 流动性覆盖率Indicator · IND · %High-quality liquid assets of deposit takers as a percentage of total net cash outflows over a 30-day stress period, Basel III definition.
- 外汇净敞口头寸与资本之比(绝对值)Indicator · IND · %Absolute value of deposit takers’ net open position in foreign currencies (long or short, including off-balance-sheet) as a percentage of capital.
- 外币贷款,占贷款总额比重(信贷美元化)Indicator · IND · %Loans of deposit takers denominated in or indexed to foreign currency as a percentage of total loans.
- 外币存款,占存款总额比重(存款美元化)Indicator · IND · %Deposits held with deposit takers in foreign currency as a percentage of total deposits.
- 信贷与 GDP 比率缺口(BIS)Indicator · IND · %Deviation of the ratio of total credit to the private non-financial sector to GDP from its long-run trend (one-sided HP filter, lambda 400 000), in percentage points, quarterly.
- 对私营部门信贷的实际增长率Indicator · IND · %Year-on-year growth of deposit takers’ credit to the private sector, deflated by consumer prices.
- 家庭债务,占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Debt of households and non-profit institutions serving households (loans and debt securities) as a percentage of GDP.
- 非金融企业债务,占 GDP 比重Indicator · IND · %Debt of non-financial corporations (loans and debt securities) as a percentage of GDP.
- 住宅房地产实际价格增长率Indicator · IND · %Year-on-year change in the residential property price index deflated by consumer prices.
- 房价收入比,偏离长期均值程度Indicator · IND · %Ratio of nominal house prices to nominal disposable income per head, as a percentage deviation from its own long-run average.
- 银行对碳密集行业的风险暴露Indicator · IND · %Share of deposit takers’ loans to non-financial corporations extended to carbon-intensive activities (fossil-fuel extraction, refining, fossil power, cement, steel, chemicals, aviation and shipping), NACE-mapped.
- 面临高物理气候风险的银行贷款Indicator · IND · %Share of deposit takers’ loans whose borrower operations or collateral lie in locations of high modelled physical climate hazard (Hazard Standard flood, storm, heat, wildfire, coastal), current climate.
- 自然巨灾保障缺口Indicator · IND · %Share of economic losses from natural catastrophes not covered by insurance, ten-year rolling average.
- 实际 GDP 增长率波动性(10 年)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual real GDP growth over the latest ten years with data.
- 消费者价格通胀率Indicator · IND · %Annual percentage change in the consumer price index, period average.
- 汇率波动性(36 个月)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of month-on-month log changes of the local-currency per US dollar rate over 36 months, annualised.
- 失业率Indicator · IND · %Share of the labour force without work but available for and seeking employment (ILO definition).
- Banking-sector solvency sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 22.2%Composite of regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, capital to assets, unprovisioned NPLs to capital and return on assets.
- Asset-quality stress sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the NPL ratio, provision coverage, sectoral loan concentration and bank exposure to the sovereign.
- Funding and liquidity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to short-term liabilities, deposits to loans and the liquidity coverage ratio.
- Foreign-exchange mismatch sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the absolute net open FX position to capital and credit and deposit dollarisation.
- Credit and asset-price imbalance sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 16.7%Composite of the BIS credit-to-GDP gap, real private-credit growth, household and corporate debt, and real house-price growth and overvaluation.
- Climate-related financial exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%Composite of bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors, lending exposed to high physical climate risk and the natural-catastrophe protection gap.
- Macroeconomic instability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 5.6%Composite of growth volatility, inflation, exchange-rate volatility and unemployment.
- 金融稳定风险指数Domain index · IDX · Mazziotta–ParetoExpert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
- 宏观金融与结构脆弱性Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 71% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- 专家
- Aggregation
- Mazziotta–Pareto
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不确定性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; Mazziotta–Pareto index (2016); IMF FSI Compilation Guide (2019)
7 components, 28 indicators
Banking-sector solvency sub-index w 2
Composite of regulatory capital to risk-weighted assets, capital to assets, unprovisioned NPLs to capital and return on assets.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
监管资本与风险加权资产之比IND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
资本与总资产之比(杠杆)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets | % | Class A | imf-fsi, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
扣除拨备后的不良贷款与资本之比IND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
资产回报率IND.FIN.earnings.roa | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
Asset-quality stress sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the NPL ratio, provision coverage, sectoral loan concentration and bank exposure to the sovereign.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
不良贷款与贷款总额之比IND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio | % | Class A | imf-fsi, wb-wdi, national-supervisor | 37.5% |
拨备与不良贷款之比IND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 25.0% |
按经济活动划分的贷款集中度IND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration | % | Class A | imf-fsi | 18.8% |
银行对广义政府债权,占银行资产比重IND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure | % | Class A | imf-mfs, national-central-bank | 18.8% |
Funding and liquidity sub-index w 1.5
Composite of liquid assets to total assets, liquid assets to short-term liabilities, deposits to loans and the liquidity coverage ratio.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
流动资产与总资产之比IND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total | % | Class A | imf-fsi, wb-wdi | 28.6% |
流动资产与短期负债之比IND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 28.6% |
客户存款与非同业贷款总额之比IND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans | % | Class A | imf-fsi | 28.6% |
流动性覆盖率IND.FIN.liquidity.lcr | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 14.3% |
Foreign-exchange mismatch sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the absolute net open FX position to capital and credit and deposit dollarisation.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
外汇净敞口头寸与资本之比(绝对值)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-supervisor | 33.3% |
外币贷款,占贷款总额比重(信贷美元化)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share | % | Class A | imf-fsi, national-central-bank | 33.3% |
外币存款,占存款总额比重(存款美元化)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share | % | Class A | imf-mfs, national-central-bank, imf-fsi | 33.3% |
Credit and asset-price imbalance sub-index w 1.5
Composite of the BIS credit-to-GDP gap, real private-credit growth, household and corporate debt, and real house-price growth and overvaluation.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
信贷与 GDP 比率缺口(BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap | % | Class B | bis-credit-gap | 25.0% |
对私营部门信贷的实际增长率IND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth | % | Class A | imf-mfs, imf-fsi | 16.7% |
家庭债务,占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | % | Class A | bis-credit, imf-gdd, imf-fsi | 16.7% |
非金融企业债务,占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp | % | Class A | bis-credit, imf-gdd, imf-fsi | 16.7% |
住宅房地产实际价格增长率IND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth | % | Class B | bis-rpp, oecd-house-prices, imf-fsi | 12.5% |
房价收入比,偏离长期均值程度IND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap | % | Class B | oecd-house-prices, derived:bis-rpp | 12.5% |
Climate-related financial exposure sub-index w 0.5
Composite of bank exposure to carbon-intensive sectors, lending exposed to high physical climate risk and the natural-catastrophe protection gap.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
银行对碳密集行业的风险暴露IND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure | % | Class D | derived:national-supervisor-credit-register, ngfs-scenarios, bcbs-climate-disclosure-2025 | 33.3% |
面临高物理气候风险的银行贷款IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | % | Class E | derived:nhs-1-hazard-layers, national-supervisor-credit-register, bcbs-climate-disclosure-2025 | 33.3% |
自然巨灾保障缺口IND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | % | Class C | swiss-re-sigma:licensed, munich-re-natcat:licensed, emdat, eiopa-protection-gap | 33.3% |
Macroeconomic instability sub-index w 0.5
Composite of growth volatility, inflation, exchange-rate volatility and unemployment.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
实际 GDP 增长率波动性(10 年)IND.MAC.output.growth_volatility | % | Class A | derived:nis:IND.MAC.output.real_gdp_growth | 25.0% |
消费者价格通胀率IND.MAC.prices.cpi_inflation | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-cpi | 25.0% |
汇率波动性(36 个月)IND.MAC.monetary.exchange_rate_volatility | % | Class A | derived:imf-ifs-exchange-rates | 25.0% |
失业率IND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate | % | Class C | ilo-ilostat, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
金融体系
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk.
| Sub-domain | 指标 |
|---|---|
| Capital adequacy | 5 |
| Asset quality | 4 |
| Earnings | 2 |
| Liquidity and funding | 5 |
| Foreign-exchange risk | 3 |
| Financial depth and inclusion | 6 |
| Real estate | 2 |
| Non-bank financial intermediation | 3 |
| Climate-related financial exposure | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IMF FSI 2019 guide; BCBS climate disclosure 2025; NGFS scenarios.
All 32 financial system indicators
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
监管资本与风险加权资产之比IND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT |
Tier 1 资本与风险加权资产之比IND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT |
普通股 Tier 1 资本与风险加权资产之比IND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCET_PT |
资本与总资产之比(杠杆)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets | FIN | Capital adequacy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS |
扣除拨备后的不良贷款与资本之比IND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital | FIN | Capital adequacy | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT |
不良贷款与贷款总额之比IND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS |
拨备与不良贷款之比IND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl | FIN | Asset quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSPN_PT |
按经济活动划分的贷款集中度IND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT |
银行对广义政府债权,占银行资产比重IND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure | FIN | Asset quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT |
资产回报率IND.FIN.earnings.roa | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERA_PT |
股本回报率IND.FIN.earnings.roe | FIN | Earnings | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSERE_PT |
流动资产与总资产之比IND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS |
流动资产与短期负债之比IND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLS_PT |
流动性覆盖率IND.FIN.liquidity.lcr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT |
净稳定资金比率IND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT |
客户存款与非同业贷款总额之比IND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans | FIN | Liquidity and funding | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCD_PT |
外汇净敞口头寸与资本之比(绝对值)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT |
外币贷款,占贷款总额比重(信贷美元化)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFC_PT |
外币存款,占存款总额比重(存款美元化)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share | FIN | Foreign-exchange risk | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT |
对私营部门的国内信贷,占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | context | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14 |
信贷与 GDP 比率缺口(BIS)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
对私营部门信贷的实际增长率IND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT |
家庭债务,占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSHG_PT |
非金融企业债务,占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT |
成年人账户拥有率IND.FIN.depth.account_ownership | FIN | Financial depth and inclusion | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2 |
住宅房地产实际价格增长率IND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT |
房价收入比,偏离长期均值程度IND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap | FIN | Real estate | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, CITY | |
其他金融公司资产,占 GDP 比重IND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | context | % | COUNTRY | IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT |
保险深度(保费与 GDP 之比)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10 |
自然巨灾保障缺口IND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | vulnerability | % | REGION, COUNTRY | |
银行对碳密集行业的风险暴露IND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
面临高物理气候风险的银行贷款IND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY |
Financial stability risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏,最近一周
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史,并附区间带和类别边界。
Country values
- 瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/fin/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
IMF_FSI | 19 |
WB_WDI | 5 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
SDG | 1 |
ILO | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
引用与再利用
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案(2026),供审阅和评论,不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前,不会出现任何数值;届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法,绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级,不使用任何评级尺度;它不是金融工具的基准,不是官方统计,不是紧急警报或官方分类,也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间,绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名,这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.