Índice de riesgo de seguridad energética
Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
geometric
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
5 components
20 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 25%
From indicators to the composite
Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.
- Población con acceso a la electricidadIndicator · IND · %Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
- Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIndicator · IND · %Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
- Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIndicator · IND · %Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
- Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIndicator · IND · %Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
- Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
- Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
- Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
- Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIndicator · IND · dEmergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
- Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIndicator · IND · 1Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
- Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIndicator · IND · %Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
- Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIndicator · IND · MJ/USDTotal energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
- Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIndicator · IND · %Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
- Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIndicator · IND · W/personInstalled renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
- Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIndicator · IND · /moAverage number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
- Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIndicator · IND · %Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
- Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)Indicator · IND · h/aTotal minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)Indicator · IND · /aNumber of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
- Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIndicator · IND · %Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
- Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIndicator · IND · 1Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
- Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIndicator · IND · %Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
- Energy access deficit sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
- Fuel import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
- Energy mix rigidity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
- Electricity supply unreliability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
- Critical-mineral dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
- Índice de riesgo de seguridad energéticaDomain index · IDX · geometricIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Vulnerabilidad humana y de los sistemasPillar · PILLAR · 8 indicesHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- INFORM 0–10 rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 25% of weight
- Weighting
- experto
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertidumbre
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
5 components, 20 indicators
Energy access deficit sub-index w 1
Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Población con acceso a la electricidadIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | % | Class B | wb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys | 66.7% |
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | % | Class C | who-household-energy-database, wb-wdi | 33.3% |
Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi | 30.8% |
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | % | Class A | un-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi | 15.4% |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report | 15.4% |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, iea-coal-information | 7.7% |
Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | d | Class B | iea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil | 15.4% |
Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1
Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | 1 | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi | 22.2% |
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | MJ/[USD] | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp | 22.2% |
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | % | Class B | iea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database | 22.2% |
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | W/{person} | Class B | irena-renewable-capacity-statistics | 11.1% |
Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1
Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | /mo | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready | 22.2% |
Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys | 22.2% |
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | h/a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | /a | Class B | wb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-861 | 22.2% |
Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | % | Class B | iea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi | 11.1% |
Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5
Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | 1 | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries | 50.0% |
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | % | Class D | un-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer | 50.0% |
Energía
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Acceso | 3 |
| Supply security and import dependence | 6 |
| Energy mix | 6 |
| Reliability | 6 |
| Critical minerals | 2 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.
All 23 energy indicators
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Población con acceso a la electricidadIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | Acceso | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | Acceso | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
Consumo de electricidad per cápitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | Acceso | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
Generación eléctrica dependiente del agua, proporciónIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d | COUNTRY | |
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
Grados-día de calefacción y refrigeraciónIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY |
Energy security risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edición anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Compuesto acoplado
- –
- Puntuación de acoplamiento S
- –
- Pulso, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Extracciones
- 1,000
Aún no hay valores publicados. La primera edición trazará aquí la serie histórica con su banda de intervalo y los límites de clase.
Country values
- Teselas
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Clave de observación
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 10 |
SDG | 5 |
ISO_37120 | 2 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
En todo el Nexus
Citar y reutilizar
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.