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El Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ENE · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

Índice de riesgo de seguridad energética

Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Page GRX-IDX-ENEEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertidumbre

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Estructura

5 components

20 leaf indicators

Cobertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 25%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
20
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
6
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows where an energy shock, from a supplier, a chokepoint, a grid failure or a mineral export control, would hit hardest; each sub-index stays visible beside the total.

computation
How Energy security risk is computed
Graph28 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Compuesto
100%
Índice
  1. Población con acceso a la electricidad
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population living in households with an electricity supply that can power at least basic lighting, whether from the grid, a mini-grid or a stand-alone system.
  2. Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinar
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the population whose household cooks mainly with clean fuels and stoves (electricity, gas, biogas, ethanol, solar) rather than solid fuels or kerosene.
  3. Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energía
    Indicator · IND · %
    Energy imports minus exports as a share of total energy supply, all fuels in energy units; negative values denote net exporters.
  4. Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y servicios
    Indicator · IND · %
    Value of imports of mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of total exports of goods and services in the same year.
  5. Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivados
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import shares by country of origin for crude oil and refined oil products combined, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale; weighted by import dependence when used in composites.
  6. Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas natural
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of natural gas import shares by origin, counting pipeline gas and LNG cargoes together, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbón
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of coal import shares (steam and metallurgical) by origin, in energy units, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netas
    Indicator · IND · d
    Emergency and commercial oil stocks held on national territory (or under bilateral agreement) divided by average daily net oil imports of the previous year, in days, following the IEA stockholding convention.
  9. Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctrica
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of annual electricity generation shares across sources (coal, oil, gas, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, other), on a 0–1 scale.
  10. Proporción fósil de la generación eléctrica
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of gross electricity generation produced from coal, oil and natural gas.
  11. Intensidad de energía primaria del PIB
    Indicator · IND · MJ/USD
    Total energy supply divided by GDP at ICP 2021 purchasing-power parities, in megajoules per international dollar.
  12. Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía final
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of final energy consumption met from renewable sources (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern and traditional bioenergy, ocean), with traditional biomass reported as a separate disaggregation.
  13. Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápita
    Indicator · IND · W/person
    Installed renewable electricity-generating capacity at year end divided by mid-year population, in watts per person.
  14. Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típico
    Indicator · IND · /mo
    Average number of electrical outages that formal private firms report in a typical month, from establishment surveys.
  15. Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresas
    Indicator · IND · %
    Losses that firms attribute to power outages as a percentage of annual sales, from establishment surveys.
  16. Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)
    Indicator · IND · h/a
    Total minutes of sustained supply interruption per customer served in the year, expressed in hours, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  17. Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)
    Indicator · IND · /a
    Number of sustained supply interruptions per customer served in the year, as reported by distribution utilities under the IEEE 1366 convention.
  18. Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidad
    Indicator · IND · %
    Electricity lost between generation and the consumer, technical and commercial, as a share of electricity output.
  19. Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticos
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  20. Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticos
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  21. Energy access deficit sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).
  22. Fuel import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 30.0%
    Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.
  23. Energy mix rigidity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.
  24. Electricity supply unreliability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 20.0%
    Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.
  25. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 10.0%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  26. Índice de riesgo de seguridad energética
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  27. Vulnerabilidad humana y de los sistemas
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  28. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
FIG 2. 20 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate energy security risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
se ejecuta en su navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Método

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
25% of weight
Weighting
experto
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Incertidumbre
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; IEA energy security concept; INFORM risk algebra (geometric aggregation)
Muy bajo0,0 a < 2,0
Bajo2,0 a < 3,5
Medio3,5 a < 5,0
Alto5,0 a < 6,5
Muy alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components

5 components, 20 indicators

Energy access deficit sub-index w 1

Composite of the lack of electricity access and the lack of clean cooking (per-capita electricity use stays a NEUTRAL context indicator).

IndicadorUnidadEvidenciaFuentesProporción
Población con acceso a la electricidadIND.ENE.access.electricity_access%Class Bwb-wdi, iea-sdg7-tracking, national-household-surveys66.7%
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking%Class Cwho-household-energy-database, wb-wdi33.3%

Fuel import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of net energy import dependence, the fuel import bill against exports, oil, gas and coal supplier concentration, and strategic oil stock cover.

IndicadorUnidadEvidenciaFuentesProporción
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-wdi30.8%
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports%Class Aun-comtrade, imf-bop, wb-wdi15.4%
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-oil-information, jodi-oil15.4%
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-natural-gas-information, jodi-gas, giignl-lng-report15.4%
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration1Class Bun-comtrade, iea-coal-information7.7%
Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksdClass Biea-oil-stocks-of-member-countries, eurostat-emergency-oil-stocks, jodi-oil15.4%

Energy mix rigidity sub-index w 1

Composite of generation-mix concentration, fossil share of electricity, energy intensity and, inverted, the renewable share and renewable capacity.

IndicadorUnidadEvidenciaFuentesProporción
Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration1Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share%Class Biea-electricity-information, ember-global-electricity-review, wb-wdi22.2%
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityMJ/[USD]Class Biea-world-energy-balances, un-energy-statistics-database, wb-icp22.2%
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec%Class Biea-world-energy-balances, irena-renewable-energy-statistics, un-energy-statistics-database22.2%
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcW/{person}Class Birena-renewable-capacity-statistics11.1%

Electricity supply unreliability sub-index w 1

Composite of firm-reported outages and sales losses, SAIDI, SAIFI and network losses.

IndicadorUnidadEvidenciaFuentesProporción
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages/moClass Bwb-enterprise-surveys, wb-b-ready22.2%
Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss%Class Bwb-enterprise-surveys22.2%
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidih/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi/aClass Bwb-b-ready, national-energy-regulators, ceer-benchmarking-report, us-eia-86122.2%
Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses%Class Biea-electricity-information, national-energy-regulators, wb-wdi11.1%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 0.5

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

IndicadorUnidadEvidenciaFuentesProporción
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%
05Dominio

Energía

Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.

Sub-domainIndicadores
Acceso3
Supply security and import dependence6
Energy mix6
Reliability6
Critical minerals2

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IEA energy security; SDG 7; IRENA.

06Indicadores

All 23 energy indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicadorDominioSub-domainComponenteUnidadNivelesCrosswalks
Población con acceso a la electricidadIND.ENE.access.electricity_accessENEAccesovulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cookingENEAccesovulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Consumo de electricidad per cápitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pcENEAccesocontextkW.h/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfecENEEnergy mixadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensityENEEnergy mixvulnerabilityMJ/[USD]COUNTRYSDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentrationENEEnergy mixvulnerability1COUNTRY
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pcENEEnergy mixadaptive capacityW/{person}COUNTRYSDG 7.b.1
Generación eléctrica dependiente del agua, proporciónIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.shareENEEnergy mixvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_importsENESupply security and import dependenceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exportsENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentrationENESupply security and import dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocksENESupply security and import dependencecoping capacitydCOUNTRY
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outagesENEReliabilityvulnerability/moCOUNTRYWB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_lossENEReliabilityimpact%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidiENEReliabilityvulnerabilityh/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifiENEReliabilityvulnerability/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITYISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIND.ENE.reliability.td_lossesENEReliabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Grados-día de calefacción y refrigeraciónIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_daysENEReliabilityhazardK.d/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_shareENECritical mineralsvulnerability%COUNTRY
07Cita

Energy security risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ENE · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Energy security risk index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
Edición anterior
–
Range since 2016
–
Compuesto acoplado
–
Puntuación de acoplamiento S
–
Pulso, última semana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Método
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Extracciones
1,000
Energy security risk index, world, by edition

Aún no hay valores publicados. La primera edición trazará aquí la serie histórica con su banda de intervalo y los límites de clase.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Aún no hay movimientos. A partir de la segunda edición, aquí se enumeran los cambios respecto de la edición anterior, con los indicadores que los provocaron.
08Valores

Country values

FIG 5 · Energy security risk index: countries (values when released)
Cargando el mapa
AndorraAntigua y BarbudaBaréinBarbadosComorasCabo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Estados Federados de)GranadaKiribatiSaint Kitts y NevisSanta LucíaLiechtensteinMónacoMaldivasIslas MarshallMaltaMauricioNauruPalaosSingapurSan MarinoSanto Tomé y PríncipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSanta SedeSan Vicente y las GranadinasSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Teselas
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/ene/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Clave de observación
nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI10
SDG5
ISO_371202
11En todo el Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citar

Citar y reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Energy security risk index (GRX-IDX-ENE), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/energy-security-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000119.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.