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El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · Exponential technology series

Inteligencia artificial y sistemas agénticos

La IA y los sistemas agénticos como infraestructura física (cómputo, energía, agua, materiales y cadenas de suministro) y como fuente de amenazas: fallo, uso indebido, concentración y brechas de supervisión.

Construction Indicators
Page GRX-SER-XT-01Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-01 (drafted)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de dominio

5

Water security risk · Governance weakness · Energy security risk · Cyber risk.

Indicadores

100

5 index domains

Hazard families

22

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems.

Métodos

56

Ciber, IA y tecnologías de frontera

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
5
índices temáticos
100
indicators in scope
2
ámbitos de amenaza
5
client groups

01Alcance

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where does AI adoption outrun oversight capacity?
  2. What physical footprint and dependency does AI create?
  3. Which AI failure modes could cascade into essential services?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index is built

Graph9 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de dominio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Riesgo de seguridad hídrica

    Domain index · IDX · WAT
    0–10 index of water security risk combining scarcity and stress, WASH access, water quality and transboundary dependence; geometric so that good access does not offset severe scarcity.
  2. Debilidad de la gobernanza

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  3. Riesgo de seguridad energética

    Domain index · IDX · ENE
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Riesgo cibernético

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  5. Riesgo de concentración tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  6. Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-01
    La IA y los sistemas agénticos como infraestructura física (cómputo, energía, agua, materiales y cadenas de suministro) y como fuente de amenazas: fallo, uso indebido, concentración y brechas de supervisión.
  7. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  9. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
Índice Valor Variación Variación % Intervalo del 90 % Clase · probabilidad Tendencia Rango
Riesgo de seguridad hídricaNXS-GRX · WAT – – – – –
Debilidad de la gobernanzaNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Riesgo de seguridad energéticaNXS-GRX · ENE – – – – –
Riesgo cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Riesgo de concentración tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy, Water, Governance and institutions.

04Indicadores

100 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23GOV · 20WAT · 13CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Dominio Sub-domain Componente Unidad Niveles Crosswalks
Puntuación del indicador compuesto del LIC-DSF (publicada, referencia)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Emisiones totales de gases de efecto invernadero sin UTCUTSIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Intensidad de carbono del PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Subsidios explícitos a los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Preparación económica para la inversión en adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Preparación de la gobernanza para la adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Frecuencia de sequía meteorológica graveIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Sequía hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Nivel de estrés hídricoIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Estrés hídrico hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Puntuación de estrés hídrico de referencia (subcuenca)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Estrés hídrico hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Recursos totales de agua dulce renovable per cápitaIND.WAT.stress.renewable_water.pc WAT Estrés hídrico hazard m3/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.INTR.PC
Disminución del almacenamiento de aguas subterráneasIND.WAT.stress.groundwater_depletion WAT Estrés hídrico hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Eficiencia en el uso del aguaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Estrés hídrico adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
Población que utiliza agua potable gestionada de forma seguraIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD
Población que utiliza al menos agua potable básicaIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS
Población que utiliza saneamiento gestionado de forma seguraIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD
Población con instalaciones básicas para el lavado de manosIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1
Masas de agua con buena calidad ambientalIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share WAT Water quality vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.3.2
Aguas residuales tratadas de forma seguraIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Tasa de dependencia del agua renovable externaIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Superficie de cuencas transfronterizas con cooperación operativaIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Red de alta tensión en zonas de alta amenaza geoeléctrica, proporciónIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Casos de cólera notificados, por cada 100,000 habitantesIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001
Extracción de agua para la agricultura, porcentaje del totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Escaños ocupados por mujeres en el parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Voz y rendición de cuentas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Estabilidad política y ausencia de violencia (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Eficacia del gobierno (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control de la corrupción (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Índice de Percepción de la Corrupción (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Puntuación de libertad de prensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estado de derecho (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Derechos de propiedad y gobernanza basada en normas (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Detenidos sin condena, porcentaje de la población penitenciariaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidencia del soborno entre las empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Calidad regulatoria (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Calificación general de la CPIA (índice de asignación de recursos de la AIF)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA: gestión del sector público e institucionesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA: transparencia, rendición de cuentas y corrupción en el sector públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Eficiencia de la movilización de ingresos (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desviación de la ejecución presupuestaria respecto del presupuesto aprobadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Puntuación general de los Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Exhaustividad del registro de nacimientosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Años desde el último censo de poblaciónIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Puntuación del entorno empresarial (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Población con acceso a la electricidadIND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE Acceso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
Población que depende principalmente de combustibles y tecnologías limpios para cocinarIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Acceso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Consumo de electricidad per cápitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE Acceso context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Proporción renovable del consumo total de energía finalIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensidad de energía primaria del PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Concentración de la matriz de generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Proporción fósil de la generación eléctricaIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacidad instalada de generación renovable per cápitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Generación eléctrica dependiente del agua, proporciónIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de energíaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Factura de importación de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de bienes y serviciosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de crudo y derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de gas naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de carbónIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Reservas de petróleo en días de importaciones netasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence coping capacity d COUNTRY
Cortes de electricidad sufridos por las empresas en un mes típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Valor perdido por cortes eléctricos, porcentaje de las ventas de las empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Duración media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frecuencia media de las interrupciones del sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Pérdidas en la transmisión y distribución de electricidadIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Grados-día de calefacción y refrigeraciónIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Proporción del mayor proveedor en las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Personas que usan InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundancia de rutas de conectividad internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupción de Internet a escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Resiliencia de la red eléctricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Resiliencia de la red de abastecimiento de aguaIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Activos de abastecimiento de agua en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Activos de generación y red eléctrica en zonas de alta amenaza, proporciónIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Puntuación del Global Cybersecurity Index de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nivel en el Global Cybersecurity Index de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizativas del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desarrollo de capacidades del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperación del GCI de la UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipo nacional de respuesta a incidentes informáticos en funcionamientoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislación vigente de protección de datos y privacidadIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Ciberincidentes significativos por millón de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Ciberincidentes que interrumpen servicios críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor añadido de los servicios TIC, porcentaje del PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desarrollo del gobierno electrónicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Gasto interno bruto en I+D, porcentaje del PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Investigadores por millón de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportaciones de alta tecnología, porcentaje de las exportaciones de manufacturasIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentración de proveedores de importaciones de semiconductoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de infraestructura en la nubeIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidad de cómputo de IA bajo control extranjero o de un único proveedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligencia artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentración de proveedores de modelos fundacionalesIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligencia artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisión de la bioseguridad y la bioprotección de los laboratorios de alta contenciónIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnología coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estrategia nacional de RRD alineada con el Marco de Sendai para la Reducción del Riesgo de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Gobiernos locales con estrategias de RRD alineadas con la estrategia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
05Amenazas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformaciónFrontera157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Familia Dominio Amenazas Count
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnología y biología sintética Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologías de intervención climática Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologías de frontera y exponenciales Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistemas de información y ciberfísicos Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Ciber, IA y tecnologías de frontera

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

08Informes

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-01
Edition status
drafted, in stewardship review
Asunto
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar y reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems series (GRX-SER-XT-01), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-01/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000088.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-01:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.WAT.stress.water_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.

Perfiles de país Todas las series

Estado

La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.

Lo que NXS-GRX no es

NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.

Instituciones y fuentes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.