Skip to content

The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · Exponential technology series

Inteligência artificial e sistemas agênticos

IA e sistemas agênticos como infraestrutura física (computação, energia, água, materiais e cadeias de abastecimento) e como fonte de ameaças: falhas, uso indevido, concentração e lacunas de supervisão.

Page GRX-SER-XT-01Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-01 (drafted)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

5

Water security risk · Governance weakness · Energy security risk · Cyber risk.

Indicadores

100

5 index domains

Hazard families

22

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems.

Métodos

56

Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteira

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
5
índices de domínio
100
indicators in scope
2
domínios de ameaça
5
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where does AI adoption outrun oversight capacity?
  2. What physical footprint and dependency does AI create?
  3. Which AI failure modes could cascade into essential services?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index is built

Graph9 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Risco de segurança hídrica

    Domain index · IDX · WAT
    0–10 index of water security risk combining scarcity and stress, WASH access, water quality and transboundary dependence; geometric so that good access does not offset severe scarcity.
  2. Fragilidade da governança

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  3. Risco de segurança energética

    Domain index · IDX · ENE
    Index of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Risco cibernético

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  5. Risco de concentração tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  6. Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-01
    IA e sistemas agênticos como infraestrutura física (computação, energia, água, materiais e cadeias de abastecimento) e como fonte de ameaças: falhas, uso indevido, concentração e lacunas de supervisão.
  7. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  9. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Risco de segurança hídricaNXS-GRX · WAT – – – – –
Fragilidade da governançaNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Risco de segurança energéticaNXS-GRX · ENE – – – – –
Risco cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risco de concentração tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy, Water, Governance and institutions.

04Indicadores

100 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ENE · 23GOV · 20WAT · 13CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Pontuação do indicador composto LIC-DSF (publicada, referência)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Importações de combustíveis, em % das importações de mercadoriasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Emissões totais de gases de efeito estufa, excluindo LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Intensidade de carbono do PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp CLI Emissions exposure kg/[USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Subsídios explícitos a combustíveis fósseis, em % do PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp CLI Transition exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Preparação econômica para investimentos em adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Preparação da governança para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Frequência de secas meteorológicas severasIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency HAZ Seca hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR
Nível de estresse hídricoIND.WAT.stress.water_stress WAT Estresse hídrico hazard % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS
Pontuação de estresse hídrico de base (sub-bacia)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Estresse hídrico hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Recursos renováveis totais de água doce per capitaIND.WAT.stress.renewable_water.pc WAT Estresse hídrico hazard m3/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.INTR.PC
Declínio do armazenamento de águas subterrâneasIND.WAT.stress.groundwater_depletion WAT Estresse hídrico hazard mm/a COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Eficiência do uso da águaIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency WAT Estresse hídrico adaptive capacity [USD]/m3 COUNTRY SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD
População que usa água potável gerida com segurançaIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD
População que usa pelo menos água potável básicaIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS
População que usa saneamento gerido com segurançaIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD
População com instalações básicas para lavar as mãosIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1
Corpos d'água com boa qualidade ambiental da águaIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share WAT Water quality vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 6.3.2
Fluxos de águas residuais tratados com segurançaIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share WAT Water quality coping capacity % COUNTRY, CITY SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT
Índice de dependência de águas renováveis externasIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Área de bacias transfronteiriças com cooperação operacionalIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Rede de alta tensão em zonas de alta ameaça geoelétrica, em %IND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share SPC Space-service dependence exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1
Casos de cólera notificados, por 100.000 habitantesIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001
Captação de água para a agricultura, em % do totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS
Assentos ocupados por mulheres no parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Eficácia governamental (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controle da corrupção (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Índice de Percepção da Corrupção (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estado de direito (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidência de suborno entre empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualidade regulatória (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA: gestão do setor público e instituiçõesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA: transparência, prestação de contas e corrupção no setor públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
População com acesso à eletricidadeIND.ENE.access.electricity_access ENE Acesso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS
População que depende principalmente de combustíveis e tecnologias limpos para cozinharIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Acesso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Consumo de eletricidade per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc ENE Acesso context kW.h/a/{person} COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC
Parcela renovável do consumo final total de energiaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS
Intensidade energética primária do PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity ENE Energy mix vulnerability MJ/[USD] COUNTRY SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD
Concentração da matriz de geração elétricaIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration ENE Energy mix vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Parcela fóssil da geração de eletricidadeIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS
Capacidade instalada de geração renovável per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc ENE Energy mix adaptive capacity W/{person} COUNTRY SDG 7.b.1
Geração de eletricidade dependente de água, em %IND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share ENE Energy mix vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1
Dependência líquida de importações de energiaIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports ENE Supply security and import dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS
Fatura das importações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de bens e serviçosIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de petróleo bruto e derivadosIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de gás naturalIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de carvãoIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration ENE Supply security and import dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Estoques de petróleo em dias de importações líquidasIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks ENE Supply security and import dependence coping capacity d COUNTRY
Cortes de energia sofridos pelas empresas num mês típicoIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages ENE Reliability vulnerability /mo COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG
Valor perdido com cortes de energia, em % das vendas das empresasIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss ENE Reliability impact % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS
Duração média das interrupções do sistema (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi ENE Reliability vulnerability h/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Frequência média das interrupções do sistema (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi ENE Reliability vulnerability /a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Perdas na transmissão e distribuição de energia elétricaIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses ENE Reliability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS
Graus-dia de aquecimento e resfriamentoIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days ENE Reliability hazard K.d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Parcela do maior fornecedor nas importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share ENE Critical minerals vulnerability % COUNTRY
Pessoas que usam a internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundância das rotas de conectividade internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupção da internet em escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Resiliência da rede elétricaIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Resiliência da rede de abastecimento de águaIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience INF Utilities coping capacity {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Ativos de abastecimento de água em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Ativos de geração e de rede elétrica em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours INF Urban systems vulnerability h/a CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Pontuação no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nível no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizacionais do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desenvolvimento de capacidades do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperação do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipe nacional de resposta a incidentes de computador em operaçãoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislação de proteção de dados e privacidade em vigorIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Incidentes cibernéticos significativos por milhão de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Incidentes cibernéticos que interrompem serviços críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor agregado dos serviços de TIC, em % do PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desenvolvimento do governo eletrônicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologia coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estratégia nacional de RRD alinhada com o Quadro de Sendai para a Redução do Risco de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governos locais com estratégias de RRD alinhadas à estratégia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformaçãoFronteira157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologia e biologia sintética Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologias de intervenção climática Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicos Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteira

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

08Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-01
Edition status
drafted, in stewardship review
Objeto
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems series (GRX-SER-XT-01), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-01/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000088.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-01:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.WAT.stress.water_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.