The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-GOV · LCC Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
Índice de fragilidade da governança
Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
Page GRX-IDX-GOVEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weaknessValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Incerteza
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Estrutura
4 components
16 leaf indicators
Cobertura
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
16
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
12
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Institutional weakness turns hazards into disasters and disasters into crises; the four sub-indices stay visible, and the CPI is excluded because its licence forbids derivatives.
computation
How Governance weakness is computedGraph23 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Composto
100%
Índice
- Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived extent to which citizens can choose their government and enjoy freedom of expression, association and a free media, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived likelihood of political instability or politically motivated violence, including terrorism, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Eficácia governamental (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived quality of public services, of the civil service and its independence from political pressure, and of policy formulation and implementation, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Controle da corrupção (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived extent to which public power is exercised for private gain, including petty and grand corruption and state capture, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)Indicator · IND · scoreReporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index score, 0 to 100 with higher meaning freer, under the methodology in use since 2022; ingested as published.
- Estado de direito (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived confidence in and adherence to the rules of society, including contract enforcement, property rights, police and courts, and the likelihood of crime and violence, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)Indicator · IND · scoreWorld Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of the extent to which private economic activity is facilitated by an effective legal system and rule-based governance that respects property and contract rights.
- Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIndicator · IND · %People held in detention who have not been sentenced, as a percentage of the total prison population.
- Incidência de suborno entre empresasIndicator · IND · %Share of firms that experienced at least one bribe payment request across six types of public transactions, from Enterprise Surveys.
- Qualidade regulatória (WGI)Indicator · IND · scorePerceived ability of government to formulate and implement sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private-sector development, on the WGI 0 to 100 score.
- Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)Indicator · IND · scoreAverage World Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of economic management, structural policies, social inclusion and public-sector management, for IDA-eligible countries.
- Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)Indicator · IND · scoreWorld Bank staff rating, from 1 to 6, of the tax policy and tax administration: base breadth, rate structure, collection efficiency and compliance cost.
- Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIndicator · IND · %Absolute difference, in percentage points, between primary government expenditure outturn and 100% of the originally approved budget.
- Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIndicator · IND · scoreWorld Bank SPI overall score, from 0 to 100, across data use, data services, data products, data sources and data infrastructure.
- Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIndicator · IND · %Share of children under five whose births are registered with civil authorities.
- Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIndicator · IND · aNumber of years between the reference year and the most recent completed population and housing census.
- Governance quality sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%Composite of WGI voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption, with RSF press freedom.
- Rule of law sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of WGI rule of law, CPIA property rights, unsentenced detention and firms’ experience of bribery.
- Policy and institutional quality sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%Composite of WGI regulatory quality, the CPIA overall rating, revenue-mobilisation efficiency and budget credibility.
- Statistical capacity sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 11.1%Composite of the SPI overall score, completeness of birth registration and census recency.
- Índice de fragilidade da governançaDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
- Falta de capacidade de enfrentamento e de adaptaçãoPillar · PILLAR · 2 indicesCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate governance weakness on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
funciona no seu navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Método
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- especialista
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incerteza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
- Framework basis
- INFORM Lack of Coping Capacity: institutional (structure only); WB WGI 2025 methodology; JRC COIN 10-step guide; OECD/JRC Handbook (2008)
Muito baixo0.0 a < 2.0
Baixo2.0 a < 3.5
Médio3.5 a < 5.0
Alto5.0 a < 6.5
Muito alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components
4 components, 16 indicators
Governance quality sub-index w 2
Composite of WGI voice and accountability, political stability, government effectiveness and control of corruption, with RSF press freedom.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Eficácia governamental (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Controle da corrupção (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 22.2% |
Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | {score} | Class E | rsf-world-press-freedom-index (licence terms to be cleared) | 11.1% |
Rule of law sub-index w 1
Composite of WGI rule of law, CPIA property rights, unsentenced detention and firms’ experience of bribery.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Estado de direito (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 40.0% |
Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | % | Class B | unodc-cts | 20.0% |
Incidência de suborno entre empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | % | Class B | wb-enterprise-surveys, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Policy and institutional quality sub-index w 1
Composite of WGI regulatory quality, the CPIA overall rating, revenue-mobilisation efficiency and budget credibility.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Qualidade regulatória (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | {score} | Class C | wb-wgi | 40.0% |
Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi | 20.0% |
Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | {score} | Class E | wb-cpia, wb-wdi, imf-isora | 20.0% |
Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | % | Class B | pefa, national-budget-documents | 20.0% |
Statistical capacity sub-index w 0.5
Composite of the SPI overall score, completeness of birth registration and census recency.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | {score} | Class B | wb-spi, wb-wdi | 50.0% |
Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | % | Class B | unicef-birth-registration, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | a | Class A | unsd-census-programme | 25.0% |
05Domínio
Governança e instituições
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Governance quality | 6 |
| Rule of law | 4 |
| Policy and institutional quality | 6 |
| Statistical capacity | 3 |
| Business environment | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): WB WGI 2025; WB CPIA; WB SPI 2025; WB B-READY.
06Indicadores
All 20 governance and institutions indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicador | Domínio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidade | Níveis | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Eficácia governamental (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Controle da corrupção (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Índice de Percepção da Corrupção (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Estado de direito (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Incidência de suborno entre empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Qualidade regulatória (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA: gestão do setor público e instituiçõesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA: transparência, prestação de contas e corrupção no setor públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY |
07Cotação
Governance weakness index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · GOV · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Governance weakness index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
- Edição anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composto acoplado
- –
- Pontuação de acoplamento S
- –
- Pulse, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Sorteios
- 1,000
Governance weakness index, world, by edition
Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.
África54
Américas35
Ásia48
Europa44
Ainda não há variações. As alterações desde a edição anterior serão listadas aqui a partir da segunda edição, com os indicadores que as motivaram.
08Valores
Country values
FIG 5 · Governance weakness index: countries (values when released)
Carregando o mapa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/gov/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chave de observação
nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-14Global Policy and institutionsGovernance weakness, state capacity, rule of law, preparedness frameworks and the institutional ability to anticipate and adapt.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk.→ SR-11Information integrity and social cohesionInformation disorder, polarisation, trust and cohesion as amplifiers of every other risk.→ XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.→ XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency.→ XT-11Digital identity and trustIdentity, authentication and trust infrastructure: exclusion, fraud, breach and concentration risk.→ XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published.→ XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.→ XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks.→ XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WGI | 12 |
WB_WDI | 7 |
SDG | 5 |
11Em todo o Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Em todo o Nexus
GCRI Registry · GCRI Campaigns · GCRI Agency · GRF Diplomacy · Governance Nexus · GRF Information Integrity and Public Trust.
12Citar
Citar e reutilizar
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Governance weakness index (GRX-IDX-GOV), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/governance-weakness/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000124.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Situação
A metodologia, a estrutura e as definições do The Global Risks Index constituem um projeto de trabalho preparatório (2026), divulgado para revisão e comentários e não para implementação. Nenhum valor aparece até que uma edição seja publicada a partir de um corte de evidências governado; os valores passam então a ter intervalos, classes, fontes e o respectivo percurso de correção. Os simuladores executam os métodos publicados sobre números que você escolhe e nunca mostram um valor do NXS-GRX.
O que o NXS-GRX não é
O NXS-GRX é informação de pesquisa e de análise de risco. Não é rating de crédito ou ESG e não usa escala de rating, não é referência para instrumentos financeiros, não é estatística oficial, não é alerta de emergência nem classificação oficial e não é aconselhamento. Não deve ser usado para avaliar pessoas físicas. As classes de risco são faixas em uma escala publicada, nunca classificações de países ou pessoas.
Instituições e fontes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor inclui a atribuição das suas fontes, que mantêm as suas próprias licenças. Os nomes externos são citados apenas para fins de interoperabilidade. Os textos de autoria da Nexus destinam-se a ser publicados sob CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.