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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · Exponential technology series

Tecnologias convergentes

Riscos que surgem onde tecnologias de fronteira se combinam (IA com biotecnologia, autonomia com cibernética, computação com energia) e superam a governança de tecnologias isoladas.

Page GRX-SER-XT-20Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-20 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Índices de domínio

4

Health security risk · Governance weakness · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Indicadores

102

4 index domains

Hazard families

20

Frontier and exponential technology · Systemic and compound events.

Métodos

77

Cyber, AI and frontier technology · Networks, dependency and systemic risk.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
4
índices de domínio
102
indicators in scope
2
domínios de ameaça
4
client groups

01Escopo

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Which technology combinations create new hazard classes?
  2. Where does convergence outrun governance?
  3. What early signals should be watched?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Converging technologies index is built

Graph8 nodes
Grafo
01Índices de domínio
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Índice
  1. Risco de segurança sanitária

    Domain index · IDX · HLT
    INFORM-style aggregation, on 0 to 10, of epidemic and AMR hazard, disease burden and undernutrition against health-system and IHR capacity, each component oriented by its own polarity.
  2. Fragilidade da governança

    Domain index · IDX · GOV
    Weighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
  3. Risco cibernético

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Risco de concentração tecnológica

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  5. Converging technologies index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-20
    Riscos que surgem onde tecnologias de fronteira se combinam (IA com biotecnologia, autonomia com cibernética, computação com energia) e superam a governança de tecnologias isoladas.
  6. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  8. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Índices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-20 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Converging technologies index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Índice Valor Variação Variação % Intervalo de 90% Classe · probabilidade Tendência Faixa
Risco de segurança sanitáriaNXS-GRX · HLT – – – – –
Fragilidade da governançaNXS-GRX · GOV – – – – –
Risco cibernéticoNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risco de concentração tecnológicaNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Health, Governance and institutions.

04Indicadores

102 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
HLT · 31GOV · 20CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicador Domínio Sub-domain Componente Unidade Níveis Crosswalks
Pontuação do indicador composto LIC-DSF (publicada, referência)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Dependência líquida de importações de minerais críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Preparação econômica para investimentos em adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Preparação da governança para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Dias de calor úmido perigoso por anoIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days HAZ Extreme heat hazard d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501
Eventos de exposição a ondas de calor por pessoaIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days HAZ Extreme heat exposure d/a COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
População exposta a calor extremo, em %IND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share HAZ Extreme heat exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY
Exposição a PM2.5, média ponderada pela populaçãoIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure ENV Qualidade do ar hazard ug/m3 COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD
População exposta acima da diretriz da OMS para PM2.5, em %IND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share ENV Qualidade do ar exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS
Exposição ao pico sazonal de ozônioIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure ENV Qualidade do ar hazard [ppb] COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
População que usa água potável gerida com segurançaIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD
População que usa pelo menos água potável básicaIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS
População que usa saneamento gerido com segurançaIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD
População com instalações básicas para lavar as mãosIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share WAT Drinking water and sanitation vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1
Índice de dependência de águas renováveis externasIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Área de bacias transfronteiriças com cooperação operacionalIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Taxa de mortalidade de menores de cinco anosIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007
Taxa de mortalidade neonatalIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2
Razão de mortalidade maternaIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026
Expectativa de vida ao nascerIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability a COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001
Mortalidade prematura por grandes doenças não transmissíveisIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality HLT Disease burden and mortality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070
Incidência de tuberculoseIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020
Incidência de maláriaIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA
Incidência de HIVIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence HLT Disease burden and mortality hazard /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS
Médicos por 1.000 habitantesIND.HLT.system.physician_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1
Enfermeiros e parteiras por 1.000 habitantesIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1
Leitos hospitalares por 1.000 habitantesIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds HLT Health system capacity coping capacity /10*3 COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102
Índice de cobertura de serviços da cobertura universal de saúde (UHC)IND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD
População com gastos catastróficos do próprio bolso em saúdeIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Gastos do próprio bolso, em % da despesa corrente em saúdeIND.HLT.system.oop_share HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011
Despesa corrente em saúde, em % do PIBIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS
Cobertura vacinal com DTP3IND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1
Cobertura vacinal contra o sarampo, segunda doseIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1
Partos assistidos por pessoal de saúde qualificadoIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance HLT Health system capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2
Tempo de deslocamento até o estabelecimento de saúde mais próximoIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time HLT Health system capacity vulnerability min COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Pontuação das capacidades básicas do RSI (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018
Capacidade laboratorial do RSI (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1
Capacidade de vigilância do RSI (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2
Capacidade de gestão de emergências de saúde do RSI (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1
Capacidade de comunicação de risco do RSI (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication HLT Health security (IHR) coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5
Frequência de eventos epidêmicosIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard 1 COUNTRY, ADM1
Casos de cólera notificados, por 100.000 habitantesIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k HLT Epidemic and outbreak hazard /10*5 COUNTRY WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001
Infecções da corrente sanguínea por MRSAIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2
Infecções da corrente sanguínea por E. coli resistente a cefalosporinas de terceira geraçãoIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream HLT Antimicrobial resistance hazard % COUNTRY WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2
Déficit de altura em crianças menores de cinco anosIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025
Emaciação em crianças menores de cinco anosIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026
Anemia em mulheres em idade reprodutivaIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women HLT Nutrition vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043
Assentos ocupados por mulheres no parlamento nacionalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
População com 65 anos ou mais, em % do totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus DEM Age structure vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
Ataques contra a assistência à saúdeIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care CON Civilian harm impact 1 COUNTRY
Voz e prestação de contas (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Estabilidade política e ausência de violência (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Eficácia governamental (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Controle da corrupção (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Índice de Percepção da Corrupção (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Pontuação de liberdade de imprensa (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estado de direito (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Direitos de propriedade e governança baseada em regras (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Presos sem condenação, em % da população carceráriaIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidência de suborno entre empresasIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualidade regulatória (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Classificação geral CPIA (índice de alocação de recursos da AID)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA: gestão do setor público e instituiçõesIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA: transparência, prestação de contas e corrupção no setor públicoIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Eficiência da mobilização de receitas (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Desvio da execução orçamentária em relação ao orçamento aprovadoIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Pontuação geral dos Statistical Performance IndicatorsIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Cobertura do registro de nascimentosIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Anos desde o último recenseamento populacionalIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Pontuação do ambiente de negócios (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
População que depende principalmente de combustíveis e tecnologias limpos para cozinharIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking ENE Acesso vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de minerais críticosIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Pessoas que usam a internetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redundância das rotas de conectividade internacionalIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Horas de interrupção da internet em escala nacionalIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Instalações críticas com energia de reserva por 72 horasIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power INF Utilities coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019
Instalações vitais em zonas de alta ameaça, em %IND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share INF Utilities exposure % COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID
Estabelecimentos de saúde danificados ou destruídos por desastresIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-2
Pontuação no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Nível no Global Cybersecurity Index da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilar de medidas jurídicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilar de medidas técnicas do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilar de medidas organizacionais do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilar de medidas de desenvolvimento de capacidades do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilar de medidas de cooperação do GCI da UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Equipe nacional de resposta a incidentes de computador em operaçãoIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Legislação de proteção de dados e privacidade em vigorIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Incidentes cibernéticos significativos por milhão de habitantesIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Incidentes cibernéticos que interrompem serviços críticosIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valor agregado dos serviços de TIC, em % do PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Desenvolvimento do governo eletrônicoIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Despesa interna bruta em P&D, em % do PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Pesquisadores por milhão de habitantesIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportações de alta tecnologia, em % das exportações de manufaturadosIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentração de fornecedores de importações de semicondutoresIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de infraestrutura em nuvemIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacidade de computação de IA sob controle estrangeiro ou de um único provedorIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentração de provedores de modelos de fundaçãoIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Inteligência artificial vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervisão de biossegurança e bioproteção de laboratórios de alta contençãoIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotecnologia coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Estratégia nacional de RRD alinhada com o Quadro de Sendai para a Redução do Risco de DesastresIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Governos locais com estratégias de RRD alinhadas à estratégia nacionalIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
População a menos de 15 minutos dos serviços de emergênciaIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access CRS Response capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
05Ameaças

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
FronteiraSistêmico156HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 20 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Família Domínio Ameaças Count
AI system failure and misalignment Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotecnologia e biologia sintética Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Tecnologias de intervenção climática Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciais Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Supply-chain and flow disruption Eventos sistêmicos e compostos Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … 17
Cascading failure Eventos sistêmicos e compostos Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … 10
Compound and multi-hazard events Eventos sistêmicos e compostos Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … 9
Structural fragility of interconnected systems Eventos sistêmicos e compostos Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … 11
06Métodos

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

56 methods

Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteira

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

21 methods

Redes, dependência e risco sistêmico

Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …

07Users

Who uses it

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.

08Relatórios

Nexus Reports

Edition code
XT-20
Edition status
prevista
Objeto
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Nexus Reports

09Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Converging technologies series (GRX-SER-XT-20), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-20/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000107.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-20:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.HLT.security.health_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.